SPAC: JUDY - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

SH, 94, 2023022200, , BEST, 0, 143S, 1720W, 15, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, P, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/A ... 942023.dat

[cycloneye]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 14.8S
175.8E, APPROXIMATELY 300 NM WEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH BUILDING CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
QUADRANTS. THIS CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE A SPINNER ASSOCIATED WITH A
MUCH BROADER AREA OF TROUGHING AS INDICATED ON A RECENT SCATTEROMETRY
IMAGE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT INVEST 94P IS IN A MARGINAL
AREA FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE (35-40 KTS)
EQUATORWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, A GOOD 850MB VORTICITY SIGNATURE, VERY
WARM (29-30) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS), OFFSET BY HIGH (30-40 KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ALTHOUGH INVEST 94P IS NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE ON
SATELLITE, NAVGEM, ICON, AND GFS DETERMINISTIC ALONG WITH GEFS ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE DISTURBANCE HEADING WESTWARD INTO A MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT AND CONSOLIDATING OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
LOW.

[cycloneye]

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
13.2S 179.8W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.0S 179.2E, APPROXIMATELY 295 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN QUADRANTS.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT INVEST 94P IS IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE
DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE EQUATORWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, VERY WARM (30-
31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND LOW TO MODERATE (10-20KT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS). MULTIPLE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS INDICATE
THAT DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

STORM WARNING 015 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 270117 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE JUDY [JU-DEE] CENTRE 994HPA CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.2
SOUTH 170.4 EAST AT 270000 UTC.
POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 12.2S 170.4E at 270000 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING WEST SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 19 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 55 KNOTS BY
280000 UTC.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 140 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 12.4S 169.0E AT 271200 UTC
AND NEAR 13.3S 168.2E AT 280000 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 014.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL CYCLONE JUDY[JU-DEE] CENTRE 994HPA CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.5
SOUTH 169.6 EAST AT 270600 UTC.
POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 12.5S 169.6E at 270600 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING WEST SOUTHWEST AT 8 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 55 KNOTS BY
280600 UTC.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 140 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 13.4S 168.3E AT 271800 UTC
AND NEAR 15.2S 167.9E AT 280600 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/UWCIMSS/status/1630253540118609923

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE WARNING 019 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 280108 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE JUDY[JU-DEE] CENTRE 980HPA CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0
SOUTH 168.7 EAST AT 280000 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 14.0S 168.7E at 280000 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 6 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 55 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 75 KNOTS BY
010000 UTC.

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/Sausius_wx/status/1630528700423761920

[cycloneye]

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE JUDY[JU-DEE] CENTRE 970HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR
15.8S 168.3E AT 281200 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI EIR
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 09 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS
NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 65 KNOTS.

ORGANISATION GOOD WITH LLCC LOCATED UNDER DEEP CONVECTION. SYSTEM
LIES JUST TO THE NORTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT
WITH GOOD OUT FLOW TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH. CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS
EXTEND UPTO 300HPA. SST IS AROUND 29 DEGREES
CELSIUS. CYCLONE IS BEING STEERED SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ALONG THE
PERIPHERARY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
SYSTEM.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EMBEDDED CENTRE WITH LG SURROUND YILEDS
DT=4.5, PT & MET AGREE. FT BASED ON PT THUS YIELDING
T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24HRS.

[cycloneye]

Moving thru Vanuatu.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/VortixWx/status/1630619596729335818

[cycloneye]

Very clear eye.

[Meteophile]

Looking at the 20z imagery, sh*t. When the core is symmetric, things can go fast in this kind of conditions.

Watch out.

[Iceresistance]

I think Judy has made landfall over Port Vila

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1630654331711266816

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/DerrickHerndon2/status/1630704634367995905

[WAcyclone]

The BOM's sea level monitoring station in Port Vila recorded a minimum pressure of 961.1 hPa at 22:20 UTC. No significant winds were recorded but that station also recorded unrealistically low winds during previous cyclones.



Link to station: http://www.bom.gov.au/cosppac/rtdd/q1c7o0hj48yu/?station_number=200857