SPAC: KEVIN - Extratropical Cyclone

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Re: SPAC: KEVIN - Severe Tropical Cyclone

#21 Postby cycloneye » Fri Mar 03, 2023 9:45 am

Up to 95kt.

TROPICAL CYCLONE KEVIN CENTRE 952HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5
SOUTH 168.7 EAST AT 031200 UTC.
POSITION GOOD.
REPEAT POSITION 18.5S 168.7E at 031200 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 13 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 85 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO
95 KNOTS BY 041200 UTC.
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Re: SPAC: KEVIN - Severe Tropical Cyclone

#22 Postby cycloneye » Fri Mar 03, 2023 12:36 pm

Impressive.

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Re: SPAC: KEVIN - Severe Tropical Cyclone

#23 Postby cycloneye » Fri Mar 03, 2023 1:12 pm

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Re: SPAC: KEVIN - Severe Tropical Cyclone

#24 Postby cycloneye » Fri Mar 03, 2023 3:36 pm

Cat 4.

TROPICAL CYCLONE KEVIN CENTRE 948HPA CATEGORY 4 WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8
SOUTH 170.0 EAST AT 031800 UTC.
POSITION GOOD.
REPEAT POSITION 19.8S 170.0E at 031800 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 18 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 90 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE DECREASING TO
85 KNOTS BY 041800 UTC.
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Re: SPAC: KEVIN - Severe Tropical Cyclone

#25 Postby aspen » Fri Mar 03, 2023 4:11 pm

cycloneye wrote:Cat 4.

TROPICAL CYCLONE KEVIN CENTRE 948HPA CATEGORY 4 WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8
SOUTH 170.0 EAST AT 031800 UTC.
POSITION GOOD.
REPEAT POSITION 19.8S 170.0E at 031800 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 18 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 90 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE DECREASING TO
85 KNOTS BY 041800 UTC.

What’s the 18z BT data? Storm data stopped appearing on Tropical Tidbits again.
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Re: SPAC: KEVIN - Severe Tropical Cyclone

#26 Postby Hurricane2022 » Fri Mar 03, 2023 4:46 pm

aspen wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Cat 4.

TROPICAL CYCLONE KEVIN CENTRE 948HPA CATEGORY 4 WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8
SOUTH 170.0 EAST AT 031800 UTC.
POSITION GOOD.
REPEAT POSITION 19.8S 170.0E at 031800 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 18 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 90 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE DECREASING TO
85 KNOTS BY 041800 UTC.

What’s the 18z BT data? Storm data stopped appearing on Tropical Tidbits again.


16P TC KEVIN 230303 2130 19.6S 169.9E 105 949
https://www.force-13.com/cyclones
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Re: SPAC: KEVIN - Severe Tropical Cyclone

#27 Postby cycloneye » Fri Mar 03, 2023 6:52 pm

Wow.

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Re: SPAC: KEVIN - Severe Tropical Cyclone

#28 Postby aspen » Fri Mar 03, 2023 7:35 pm


Easily 130 kt right now. It may reach Cat 5 status overnight at this rate.
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Re: SPAC: KEVIN - Severe Tropical Cyclone

#29 Postby Sciencerocks » Fri Mar 03, 2023 7:44 pm



Probably close to cat5 within my opinion. Looks like a bad ass that Kevin. ;)
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Re: SPAC: KEVIN - Severe Tropical Cyclone

#30 Postby aspen » Fri Mar 03, 2023 8:33 pm

RAMMB says the most recent BT puts Kevin at 130 kt. Where can the complete 00z BT (including pressure) be found?
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Re: SPAC: KEVIN - Severe Tropical Cyclone

#31 Postby cycloneye » Fri Mar 03, 2023 8:40 pm

Cat 5.

TROPICAL CYCLONE KEVIN CENTRE 930HPA CATEGORY 5 WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.8
SOUTH 171.4 EAST AT 040000 UTC.
POSITION GOOD.
REPEAT POSITION 20.8S 171.4E at 040000 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 17 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 110 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO
115 KNOTS BY 041200 UTC.
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Re: SPAC: KEVIN - Severe Tropical Cyclone

#32 Postby cycloneye » Fri Mar 03, 2023 9:34 pm

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Re: SPAC: KEVIN - Severe Tropical Cyclone

#33 Postby ElectricStorm » Sat Mar 04, 2023 12:21 am

Wow, impressive storm. Eye is nearly completely clear now
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Re: SPAC: KEVIN - Severe Tropical Cyclone

#34 Postby Foxfires » Sat Mar 04, 2023 1:33 am

aspen wrote:RAMMB says the most recent BT puts Kevin at 130 kt. Where can the complete 00z BT (including pressure) be found?


I usually use this. But there's also this if you want more data. I tend to avoid RAMMB for JTWC data because it doesn't take into account operational revisions.
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Re: SPAC: KEVIN - Severe Tropical Cyclone

#35 Postby cycloneye » Sat Mar 04, 2023 6:24 am

TROPICAL CYCLONE KEVIN CENTRE 925HPA CATEGORY 5 WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.1
SOUTH 173.2 EAST AT 040600 UTC.
POSITION GOOD.
REPEAT POSITION 22.1S 173.2E at 040600 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 21 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 115 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.
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Re: SPAC: KEVIN - Severe Tropical Cyclone

#36 Postby cycloneye » Sat Mar 04, 2023 6:27 am

Starting to weaken.

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Re: SPAC: KEVIN - Severe Tropical Cyclone

#37 Postby cycloneye » Sat Mar 04, 2023 11:47 am

Still cat 5.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE KEVIN CENTRE 925HPA CATEGORY 5 WAS LOCATED
NEAR 23.5 SOUTH 175.6 EAST AT 041200 UTC. POSITION GOOD.
REPEAT POSITION 23.5S 175.6E at 041200 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT 26 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 115 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE DECREASING TO
110 KNOTS BY 050000 UTC.
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Re: SPAC: KEVIN - Severe Tropical Cyclone

#38 Postby Hurricane2022 » Sat Mar 04, 2023 11:54 am

cycloneye wrote:Still cat 5.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE KEVIN CENTRE 925HPA CATEGORY 5 WAS LOCATED
NEAR 23.5 SOUTH 175.6 EAST AT 041200 UTC. POSITION GOOD.
REPEAT POSITION 23.5S 175.6E at 041200 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT 26 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 115 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE DECREASING TO
110 KNOTS BY 050000 UTC.

RSMC Nadi is literally the opposite version of RSMC New Delhi. IMD underestimates and FMS overestimates.
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Re: SPAC: KEVIN - Severe Tropical Cyclone

#39 Postby wxman57 » Sat Mar 04, 2023 12:24 pm

cycloneye wrote:Still cat 5.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE KEVIN CENTRE 925HPA CATEGORY 5 WAS LOCATED
NEAR 23.5 SOUTH 175.6 EAST AT 041200 UTC. POSITION GOOD.
REPEAT POSITION 23.5S 175.6E at 041200 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT 26 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 115 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE DECREASING TO
110 KNOTS BY 050000 UTC.


Note that this is not a Saffir-Simpson Cat 5. That region has a different scale. A Cat 5 there is 107 kts or greater. Looks like weakening quite rapidly now. Winds likely well under 100 kts.
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Re: SPAC: KEVIN - Severe Tropical Cyclone

#40 Postby Hurricane2022 » Sat Mar 04, 2023 12:55 pm

 https://twitter.com/cyanide_bot/status/1632067485657866240



Both 135 or 140 kt are acceptable, in my opinion
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