MED: JULIETTE (ZAKARIYYA): Subtropical Storm over the Mediterranean Sea

[Vince_and_Grace_fan]

In the last days a warm-core cyclone formed over the Western Mediterranean Sea which moved over the Tyrrhenian Sea today and aquire subtropical characteristics - it looks a bit better than the January one. However, the SSTs are only around 14-15 °C in that area and cloud tops are not very cold, mainly around -40, -45 °C.
ASCAT measured peak winds around 35-40 kt yesterday evening, when the small central feature still was more attached to the fronts, and although the cyclone likely weakened some since that time, it possibly produce winds around 35 kt now.
The FU-Berlin gave the name 'Zakariyya' to the cyclone some days earlier, when it developed as an extratropical low, and someone else (probably the Spanish, since this vortex developed within the larger circulation of the extratropical low over the Baleares, where it caused even snow: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qkPjARYOYPA) named it to Storm 'Juliette'.

[Vince_and_Grace_fan]

Sardinian radar animation:

[Europa non è lontana]

Very interesting! Phase diagrams show a slightly warm core and there's a weak PV tower - remarkable for these SSTs! It's very marginal, though, and the cloud tops seem quite warm.

ASCAT (edited for clarity):

[JetFuel_SE]

Very interesting! Phase diagrams show a slightly warm core and there's a weak PV tower - remarkable for these SSTs! It's very marginal, though, and the cloud tops seem quite warm.

ASCAT (edited for clarity):
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/885657770160951296/1080632215563681812/image.png

To be expected in the Mediterranean in March lmao.

[Vince_and_Grace_fan]

The cyclone's organization improved a bit today as the convection became slightly cooler with cloud tops around -50 °C while the outer frontal cloudiness almost totally dissipated, and a convective band wrapped into the center in the afternoon from west.
ASCAT passes (B and C) both measured peak winds around 30 kt in the morning, but recently the satellites have missed the storm.

Now the cyclone is making landfall in South Corsica.

[DanieleItalyRm]

Close to landfall 45kt mesuarement

[DanieleItalyRm]

#JULIETTE / ZAKARYIIA in her last phase before landfall seems to appear perhaps more tropical than Medistorm Qendresa (STS) 2014 or Masinissa (TS) 2020 did, with the fronts virtually gone. The cloud tops exceeded -55°C. It is true that it is inserted in a wider depression context (upper-level low,) but this has often been seen in tropical cyclones resulting from the tropical transition. Hurricane Twelve in 1991 also appears in a larger depression context, Ana in April 2003, Ana in May 2021, probably Alex in January 2016 and various others as well.

I find it very similar in dynamics, structure and intensity to tropical storm ANA in May 2021.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Atla ... ane_season

A similar Mediterranean tropical or subtropical storm in March occurred in 2007 (click Vis-LOOP):
http://meteorologia.uib.eu/medicanes/me ... icane.html

Probably achieving a "moderate deep warm core" is necessary for a tropical classification on phase diagrams. I looked for various systems on the diagrams phase and I noticed that many depressions, even very weak ones, immediately appear as moderate warm cores, even though they are not tropical cyclones. I think this happens because they are on very warm seas. I believe that on SST of only 15°C it is already remarkable that #Juliette is just below the moderate, although not reaching it. I have also noticed that strong extratropical cyclones approach moderate warm core, although they have no tropical characteristics. For all this, I don't believe that reaching a moderate warm core is a fundamental requirement for a tropical ranking, but I accept conflicting opinions. By this I don't mean that #JULIETTE is definitely tropical, but it appears almost more tropical than it was in its pre-landfall phase.

I also noticed that many classified subtropical cyclones in the south Atlantic actually look like warm seclusion extratropical cyclones.
It seems inconsistent to say that some of these systems are subtropical cyclones:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Subtropic ... m_Ub%C3%A1
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Atl ... er_systems

Juliette/Zakaryiia close to to landfall:
http://medicanes.altervista.org/zakaryiia_juliette_medicane_tlc_cyclone.jpg

Juliette/Zakaryiia at landfall:
http://medicanes.altervista.org/zakaryiia_juliette_medicane_tlc_cyclone_landfall.jpg

[Vince_and_Grace_fan]

Full-lifetime satellite animations and preliminary track and intensity estimates:

[AJC3]

#JULIETTE / ZAKARYIIA in her last phase before landfall seems to appear perhaps more tropical than Medistorm Qendresa (STS) 2014 or Masinissa (TS) 2020 did, with the fronts virtually gone. The cloud tops exceeded -55°C. It is true that it is inserted in a wider depression context (upper-level low,) but this has often been seen in tropical cyclones resulting from the tropical transition. Hurricane Twelve in 1991 also appears in a larger depression context, Ana in April 2003, Ana in May 2021, probably Alex in January 2016 and various others as well.

I find it very similar in dynamics, structure and intensity to tropical storm ANA in May 2021.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Atla ... ane_season

A similar Mediterranean tropical or subtropical storm in March occurred in 2007 (click Vis-LOOP):
http://meteorologia.uib.eu/medicanes/me ... icane.html

Probably achieving a "moderate deep warm core" is necessary for a tropical classification on phase diagrams. I looked for various systems on the diagrams phase and I noticed that many depressions, even very weak ones, immediately appear as moderate warm cores, even though they are not tropical cyclones. I think this happens because they are on very warm seas. I believe that on SST of only 15°C it is already remarkable that #Juliette is just below the moderate, although not reaching it. I have also noticed that strong extratropical cyclones approach moderate warm core, although they have no tropical characteristics. For all this, I don't believe that reaching a moderate warm core is a fundamental requirement for a tropical ranking, but I accept conflicting opinions. By this I don't mean that #JULIETTE is definitely tropical, but it appears almost more tropical than it was in its pre-landfall phase.

I also noticed that many classified subtropical cyclones in the south Atlantic actually look like warm seclusion extratropical cyclones.
It seems inconsistent to say that some of these systems are subtropical cyclones:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Subtropic ... m_Ub%C3%A1
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Atl ... er_systems

Juliette/Zakaryiia close to to landfall:
http://medicanes.altervista.org/zakaryiia_juliette_medicane_tlc_cyclone.jpg

Juliette/Zakaryiia at landfall:
http://medicanes.altervista.org/zakaryiia_juliette_medicane_tlc_cyclone_landfall.jpg

Daniele, what was the origin of the name "ZAKARYIIA"? Based on the name, I am assuming it was given this name by the Hellenic National Meteorological Service (HNMS), correct? I would like to know whether I should include it as a secondary name in the archives, or just stick with Juliette. Thanks!

[DanieleItalyRm]

Zakariia from watterpate.de (Fuberlin university)