SIO: INVEST 98S

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Hayabusa
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SIO: INVEST 98S

#1 Postby Hayabusa » Sat Mar 04, 2023 6:10 pm

98S INVEST 230304 1800 0.2S 108.3E SHEM 20 1010

The position is near exact equatorial
JMA's position is quite different
WWJP27 RJTD 041800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 041800.
WARNING VALID 051800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1012 HPA AT 02N 107E ALMOST STATIONARY.
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Re: SIO: INVEST 98S

#2 Postby doomhaMwx » Sat Mar 04, 2023 6:22 pm

NRL/JTWC has relocated it north of the equator.
98S INVEST 230304 1800 .3N 108.2E SHEM 20 1010
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Re: SIO: INVEST 98S

#3 Postby Hurricane2022 » Sat Mar 04, 2023 9:51 pm

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Re: SIO: INVEST 98S

#4 Postby Foxfires » Sun Mar 05, 2023 2:34 am

...So is this thread going to be moved to the WPAC topic?
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Re: SIO: INVEST 98S

#5 Postby AJC3 » Mon Mar 06, 2023 5:04 am

Foxfires wrote:...So is this thread going to be moved to the WPAC topic?


Not yet, since technically, it's still a SHEM invest. IMHO it's puzzling that it hasn't been re-designated yet. Not only has the "center" been north of the equator for over 24 hours, but, more importantly, the broad circulation has always been CCW (i.e. cyclonic in the NHEM).

This may join the likes of Agni as being tropical disturbance (DB)/Invest having a "wrong way" CCW circulation while centered just south of the equator. However, while ASCAT showed that Agni's LLC was definitely closed while south of the equator, 98S may or may not have satisfied both (or even one) of these two criterion. Since its broad circulation has been partially over Borneo since it was initialized, we'd need to see an overlay of a surface METAR plots (assuming they have any) with a corresponding ASCAT pass to get a better idea. Having looked at ASCAT passes from 3/4 through 3/6, my gut feeling is that the inital DB position of 0.2S eventually winds up being BT'd to the NHEM, but only by a couple tenths of a degree.

We may never know for sure, but we'll see how it turns out.
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Re: SIO: INVEST 98S

#6 Postby wxman57 » Mon Mar 06, 2023 7:28 am

The "S" is a South Indian Ocean identifier, not South Pacific.
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Re: SIO: INVEST 98S

#7 Postby Foxfires » Mon Mar 06, 2023 7:32 am

AJC3 wrote:
Foxfires wrote:...So is this thread going to be moved to the WPAC topic?


Not yet, since technically, it's still a SHEM invest. IMHO it's puzzling that it hasn't been re-designated yet. Not only has the "center" been north of the equator for over 24 hours, but, more importantly, the broad circulation has always been CCW (i.e. cyclonic in the NHEM).

This may join the likes of Agni as being tropical disturbance (DB)/Invest having a "wrong way" CCW circulation while centered just south of the equator. However, while ASCAT showed that Agni's LLC was definitely closed while south of the equator, 98S may or may not have satisfied both (or even one) of these two criterion. Since its broad circulation has been partially over Borneo since it was initialized, we'd need to see an overlay of a surface METAR plots (assuming they have any) with a corresponding ASCAT pass to get a better idea. Having looked at ASCAT passes from 3/4 through 3/6, my gut feeling is that the inital DB position of 0.2S eventually winds up being BT'd to the NHEM, but only by a couple tenths of a degree.

We may never know for sure, but we'll see how it turns out.


Imo I think the reason they didn't re-designated it was because something like that may cause some confusion as people may think it's a different system from 98S and I don't know if a system has ever been re-designated operationally before, but it might change when the best track comes out (does the JTWC do post analysis with invests?).

Also the JTWC's track doesn't seem to have been updating since 00Z so it might have dissipated/be dissipating by now.
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Re: SIO: INVEST 98S

#8 Postby AJC3 » Mon Mar 06, 2023 9:26 am

No longer on the NRL site.
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Re: SIO: INVEST 98S

#9 Postby doomhaMwx » Mon Mar 06, 2023 9:38 am

AJC3 wrote:
Foxfires wrote:...So is this thread going to be moved to the WPAC topic?


Not yet, since technically, it's still a SHEM invest. IMHO it's puzzling that it hasn't been re-designated yet. Not only has the "center" been north of the equator for over 24 hours, but, more importantly, the broad circulation has always been CCW (i.e. cyclonic in the NHEM).

This may join the likes of Agni as being tropical disturbance (DB)/Invest having a "wrong way" CCW circulation while centered just south of the equator. However, while ASCAT showed that Agni's LLC was definitely closed while south of the equator, 98S may or may not have satisfied both (or even one) of these two criterion. Since its broad circulation has been partially over Borneo since it was initialized, we'd need to see an overlay of a surface METAR plots (assuming they have any) with a corresponding ASCAT pass to get a better idea. Having looked at ASCAT passes from 3/4 through 3/6, my gut feeling is that the inital DB position of 0.2S eventually winds up being BT'd to the NHEM, but only by a couple tenths of a degree.

We may never know for sure, but we'll see how it turns out.

If it helps, BMKG (Indonesia) has an archive of 925 hPa streamline charts from the past several days. They appear to have marked this feature as early as March 1 over Borneo as a CCW circulation while right over or just south of the equator. You can clearly see that they had it just south of the equator on March 3 (and north of the equator thereafter). I'm actually wondering if JMA only showed this on its surface analysis chart starting March 4 (and a TD at that) because they saw that it was south of the equator before that time (and technically, out of their AoR).

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Re: SIO: INVEST 98S

#10 Postby AJC3 » Mon Mar 06, 2023 10:13 am

Imran_doomhaMwx wrote: If it helps, BMKG (Indonesia) has an archive of 925 hPa streamline charts from the past several days. They appear to have marked this feature as early as March 1 over Borneo as a CCW circulation while right over or just south of the equator. You can clearly see that they had it just south of the equator on March 3 (and north of the equator thereafter). I'm actually wondering if JMA only showed this on its surface analysis chart starting March 4 (and a TD at that) because they saw that it was south of the equator before that time (and technically, out of their AoR).


Thanks for posting this! So a decent chance that the surface LLC did dip a wee bit south of the equator. Another fascinating system.
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