BoB: MOCHA - Post-Tropical

[Subtrop]

IO, 91, 2023050712, , BEST, 0, 86N, 921E, 15, 0, DB

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/A ... 912023.dat

[Hurricane2022]

GFS... 943 mb


ECMWF... 948 mb


CMC... 965 mb


NAVGEM... 934 mb


ICON... 922 mb

[cycloneye]

Euro more west. Wow, 915.

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.1N
93.4E, APPROXIMATELY 332 NM SOUTH OF PORT BLAIR. ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A PARTIAL 071535 ASCAT-C PASS REVEAL WEAK LOWER
LEVEL TURNING WITH DEEP FLARING CONVECTION OFFSET TO THE WEST OF AN
ASSESSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT,
LOW (10-15KT) VWS, AND VERY WARM (31-32C) SST. AN ENHANCED CONVECTIVE
ENVELOPE AND WESTERLY WIND BURSTS OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OVER THE BAY
OF BENGAL IS CONDUCIVE FOR TC DEVELOPMENT. ANALYSIS OF THE GFS 850 MB
RELATIVE VORTICITY FORECAST SHOWS A STRONG SIGNATURE BECOMING WELL
DEFINED BY TAU 48. ALTHOUGH THE FIRST LOOK AT THIS LLC SHOWS A WEAK
CIRCULATION, GLOBAL AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT
INVEST 91B WILL QUICKLY CONSOLIDATE AS IT REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY OVER
THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS BEFORE TRACKING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 8 TO 13 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
LOW.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/MikeAdcockWx/status/1655388572059353088




 https://twitter.com/MikeAdcockWx/status/1655388879640309761

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/wxjerdman/status/1655540694549688324

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

Hopefully.

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1655614898376781828

[cycloneye]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.1N
93.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.3N 92.0E, APPROXIMATELY 265 NM SOUTH OF PORT
BLAIR. CIRA PROXY VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 081336 89GHZ GMI
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEAL A WEAK, TROUGH-LIKE AREA OF LOWER LEVEL TURNING
WITH FRAGMENTED, FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK. RECENT
SCATTEROMETRY DEPICTS MULTIPLE CIRCULATIONS THAT HAVE NOT YET
CONSOLIDATED, WITH 20-25 KT WINDS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CONVECTION AND 5-10
KT WINDS ELSEWHERE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (5-10KT) VWS, AND VERY
WARM (30-31C) SST. AN ENHANCED CONVECTIVE ENVELOPE AND WESTERLY WIND
BURSTS OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAY OF BENGAL IS ENHANCING THE
POTENTIAL FOR TC DEVELOPMENT. ANALYSIS OF THE GFS 850 MB RELATIVE
VORTICITY FORECAST SHOWS A STRONG SIGNATURE BECOMING WELL DEFINED BY TAU
48. ALTHOUGH INVEST 91B IS WEAK AND POORLY DEFINED AT THIS TIME, GLOBAL
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT IT WILL
QUICKLY CONSOLIDATE AS IT DRIFTS WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS
BEFORE TRACKING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE BAY OF BENGAL. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
REMAINS LOW.

[cycloneye]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.3N
92.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.2N 89.6E, APPROXIMATELY 321 NM SOUTHWEST OF
PORT BLAIR. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 082312Z 91GHZ
SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEAL A DEPRESSION-LIKE STRUCTURE WITH FORMATIVE
CONVECTIVE BANDING. 91B HAS BECOME MUCH MORE ORGANIZED, WITH NUMEROUS
OVERSHOOTING CLOUD TOPS WITHIN THE BROADER CONVECTIVE CANOPY.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT
WITH IMPROVING EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (5-10KT) VWS, AND VERY WARM (31-
32C) SST. AS 91B CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE, GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT IT WILL INTENSIFY IN
RESPONSE TO A WESTERLY WIND BURST OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAY OF
BENGAL WHICH IS ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL FOR TC DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[Sciencerocks]

[Hurricane2022]

The HWRF and his usual craziness.

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (91B)

B. 09/0845Z

C. 8.5N

D. 88.4E

E. FIVE/MET-9

F. T1.5/1.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...3/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.5. THE MET IS 1.0 AND
THE PT IS 1.5. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...BROWN

[cycloneye]

TCFA issued.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
7.2N 89.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.3N 88.3E, APPROXIMATELY 551 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 231004Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS REVEAL FLARING CONVECTIVE
CLOUD LINES WRAPPING INTO A FULLY OBSCURED, CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS PLACES 91B IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION DUE TO VERY WARM (31-32C) SST, LOW
(05-10KT) VWS, AND GOOD EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE
IN AGREEMENT THAT 91B WILL CONTINUE ALONG A GENERALLY NORTHWARD TRACK WHILE
QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING INTO A MORE DEFINED AND TIGHTER LLCC. ONCE THE LLCC
BECOMES CONSOLIDATED WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS, THE SYSTEM WILL
QUICKLY INTENSIFY PAST WARNING CRITERIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.

[Sciencerocks]

[Hurricane2022]

https://imageshack.com/i/pn9Av53qp
The HWRF and his usual craziness.

He managed to get even more crazy and terrible.
 https://twitter.com/zeb199818/status/1655905524146393089



 https://twitter.com/zeb199818/status/1655906026577854464