WPAC: MAWAR - Post-Tropical

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Hayabusa
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Re: WPAC: MAWAR - Tropical Storm

#481 Postby Hayabusa » Sat Jun 03, 2023 12:47 am

57 warnings now that's a lot, it exceeded Surigae's 46 warnings for a pre June storm.
WTPN31 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 057//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 057
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z --- NEAR 30.7N 138.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 075 DEGREES AT 28 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.7N 138.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 34.2N 145.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 39 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 38.5N 153.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
030300Z POSITION NEAR 31.6N 139.9E.
03JUN23. TROPICAL STORM 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 287 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 28 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME GROSSLY SHEARED/ELONGATED
AS IT TRACKED UNDER THE STRONG PREVAILING WESTERLIES. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MOSTLY EXPOSED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT IS ALSO EVIDENT ON THE MSI LOOP. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS BASED ON THE HIGH END OF AGENCY AND
AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES. TS MAWAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
DETERIORATE AS IT TRACKS FURTHER INTO THE COLD BAROCLINIC ZONE.
IT HAS BEGUN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AND BY TAU 12 WILL TRANSFORM
INTO A GALE-FORCE COLD CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD
THAT WILL BE INDISTINGUISHABLE FROM THE BAROCLINIC WIND FLOW.
THERE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THAT TS 02W WILL DISSIPATE AND/OR
BE ABSORBED INTO THE BAROCLINIC FLOW BEFORE TAU 12. THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR
HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 060300Z IS 984 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 13 FEET.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: MAWAR - Post-Tropical

#482 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 03, 2023 5:27 pm

Mawar got 56.2 ACE units although CSU has 56.5. Since 1950, these are the top ACE systems. Info from Matthew Cuyagan.

1. Nancy (1961) - 76.5
2. Karen (1962) - 66.1
3. Paka (1997) - 65.9
4. Rita (1972) - 62.5
5. Fengshen (2002) - 61.2
6. Nina (1953) - 60.6
7. Chaba (2004) - 59.7
8. Gay (1992) - 59.7
9. Opal (1967) - 57.5
10. Tip (1979) - 56.8
11. Lola (1957) - 56.8
12. Mawar (2023) - 56.2


 https://twitter.com/MatthewCuyugan/status/1664620443792470016


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Re: WPAC: MAWAR - Post-Tropical

#483 Postby Foxfires » Sun Jun 04, 2023 6:44 am

cycloneye wrote:Mawar got 56.2 ACE units although CSU has 56.5. Since 1950, these are the top ACE systems. Info from Matthew Cuyagan.

1. Nancy (1961) - 76.5
2. Karen (1962) - 66.1
3. Paka (1997) - 65.9
4. Rita (1972) - 62.5
5. Fengshen (2002) - 61.2
6. Nina (1953) - 60.6
7. Chaba (2004) - 59.7
8. Gay (1992) - 59.7
9. Opal (1967) - 57.5
10. Tip (1979) - 56.8
11. Lola (1957) - 56.8
12. Mawar (2023) - 56.2


https://twitter.com/MatthewCuyugan/status/1664620443792470016


That seems to be the count before it died. I have 56.9575 for Mawar based on the JTWC's operational track.
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ljmac75
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Re: WPAC: MAWAR - Post-Tropical

#484 Postby ljmac75 » Fri Jan 12, 2024 1:39 pm

I don't know if this belongs here or whatever but the NHC's latest release of the list of Costliest US Tropical Cyclones includes Typhoon Mawar with an estimated cost of 4.3 billion dollars. It doesn't include a Saffir-Simpson category and it's the only typhoon listed but I suppose major impacts to US territories in the West Pacific aren't so common (although I'm a little surprised Yutu didn't make the cut). The NCEI site's having some trouble right now, so if the link doesn't work try archive.org.

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/billions/dcmi.pdf
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