WPAC: MAWAR - Post-Tropical

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Hayabusa
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WPAC: MAWAR - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby Hayabusa » Tue May 16, 2023 9:02 pm

Will it become finally real this time?
97W INVEST 230517 0000 6.2N 146.6E WPAC 15 0

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Last edited by Hayabusa on Sat May 20, 2023 2:06 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#2 Postby Hayabusa » Tue May 16, 2023 9:14 pm

18Z GFS goes into Luzon strait
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#3 Postby Sciencerocks » Tue May 16, 2023 11:28 pm

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#4 Postby Hayabusa » Wed May 17, 2023 4:16 am

00Z
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#5 Postby Kingarabian » Wed May 17, 2023 7:36 am

That's a stout WWB at 140-150E. Would be surprising if nothing comes of it. All models are in agreement in a strong Typhoon developing by the last week of May.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#6 Postby Hayabusa » Wed May 17, 2023 8:23 am

Now low
ABPW10 PGTW 171300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/171300Z-180600ZMAY2023//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.7N
146.1E, APPROXIMATELY 468 NM SOUTH OF GUAM. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 170721Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE PASS REVEALS FORMATIVE BANDING
TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF AN ASSESSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH
THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION OFFSET TO THE SOUTHWEST. RECENT SCATTEROMETRY
DATA REVEALS A WEAK LLC WITH SOME 25KT WINDS, ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER-LEVEL
WESTERLIES, TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLC. ENVIRONMENT ANALYSIS DEPICTS A
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FORMATION CHARACTERIZED BY LOW TO
MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM (30-31C) SST, OFFSET BY
WEAK OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD, BUT DISAGREE ON INTENSITY, WITH GFS AND
NAVGEM BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) AS LOW//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#7 Postby cycloneye » Wed May 17, 2023 8:31 am

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#8 Postby cycloneye » Wed May 17, 2023 12:19 pm

12 GFS on how close it moves by Guam.

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#9 Postby Hayabusa » Wed May 17, 2023 3:43 pm

12z
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#10 Postby cycloneye » Wed May 17, 2023 8:47 pm

Not moving much right now.

WP, 97, 2023051800, , BEST, 0, 57N, 1463E, 15, 1008, DB
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#11 Postby Hayabusa » Wed May 17, 2023 10:30 pm

Up to medium
ABPW10 PGTW 180330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/180330Z-190200ZMAY2023//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
5.7N 146.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.7N 146.3E, APPROXIMATELY 472 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM, USA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 170200Z HIMAWARI IR IMAGE REVEALS A PARTIALLY OBSCURED LLC WITH
INITIAL SIGNS OF WRAPPING IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT AND FLARING
OVERHEAD CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENT ANALYSIS DEPICTS A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR FORMATION CHARACTERIZED BY LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (30-31C) SST, AND ZONAL OUTFLOW ALOFT.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD, TOWARDS GUAM. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WHEN 97W
WILL DEVELOP, HOWEVER, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT WHEN IT DOES
CONSOLIDATE IT WILL FULLY DEVELOP, AND STEADILY INTENSIFY OVER THE
NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13
TO 17 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B(1) TO
MEDIUM.//
NNNN
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#12 Postby Hayabusa » Thu May 18, 2023 3:31 am

00Z Euro more west than 12Z
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#13 Postby Hayabusa » Thu May 18, 2023 5:22 am

If the GFS is right in tracking this over the Marianas, it would be their first named storm passage (and possibly their first major typhoon) since 2019's Fengshen or Bualoi or Hagibis, depending how strong it would be when it passes.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#14 Postby Hayabusa » Thu May 18, 2023 7:48 am

06Z HWRF makes this a major at the end of the run but still located south of Guam
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#15 Postby cycloneye » Thu May 18, 2023 8:52 am

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#16 Postby cycloneye » Thu May 18, 2023 12:32 pm

12z GFS just east of Guam, but goes over Rota and Saipan.

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#17 Postby Hayabusa » Thu May 18, 2023 3:48 pm

TCFA
WTPN21 PGTW 182000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 97W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
095 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 5.4N 148.7E TO 7.4N 148.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 181800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 5.4N 148.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 5.4N 149.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.4N 148.6E, APPROXIMATELY 531 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM, USA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A VERY BROAD CIRCULATION WITH SEVERAL AREAS OF
ENHANCED SURFACE VORTICITY WITH NO WELL-DEFINED DOMINANT LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AT THIS TIME. DEEP FLARING CONVECTION IS
WRAPPING AROUND THE BROAD CIRCULATION AS IT GRADUALLY BECOMES BETTER
ORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31C), LOW VWS (10-15KTS) AND
MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT 97W WILL TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT DEVELOPS AND INTENSIFIES
OVER THE NEXT 12-36 HOURS. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED
WITH WHERE THE PRIMARY LLCC WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP. HOWEVER, ONCE THE
LLCC IS ESTABLISHED, IT IS LIKELY THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME A
RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING TROPICAL CYCLONE. ANY SUBSEQUENT WARNING AND
ASSOCIATED TRACK FORECAST WILL BE HIGHLY CONTINGENT UPON THE LOCATION
OF THE LLCC ONCE IT BECOMES ESTABLISHED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS.MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
192000Z.
//
NNNN

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#18 Postby Hayabusa » Thu May 18, 2023 3:53 pm

12Z
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Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#19 Postby cycloneye » Thu May 18, 2023 5:58 pm

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#20 Postby Hayabusa » Fri May 19, 2023 4:50 am

It's interesting that HWRF is tracking more west than the global models like it avoids the Marianas. Of course beyond 5 days it may start tracking more northward/northeastward too.
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically


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