ATL: ARLENE - Post-Tropical

[johngaltfla]

If the NHC gives this a name, I'll swear it's a conspiracy to keep me from ever wining the S2K hurricane contest. I go high, they don't name tropical storms. I go low, they call afternoon thunderstorms a Cat 2.

They don't like me.

[ElectricStorm]

Little bit of a convection blow up, although it's well removed from the center. We'll see what it can do tonight during DMAX, still a chance to become Arlene if convection can blow up a little more.

[Hurricane Mike]

Looks better than it's actual intensity. That's probably because, like the NHC says, it's not stacked up very deep into the atmosphere.

Here's a little video update on it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lQzHXbtFYMA

[psyclone]

Hopefully we don't burn a name on this one. Interesting feature and it's helped provide robust thunderstorm development over parched west central FL. We are grateful for the rain.

[GCANE]

Its struggling.
CAPE is minimal. shear increasing, cloud tops warming. strong 200mb vort.

[cycloneye]

Remains as TD.

AL, 02, 2023060200, , BEST, 0, 277N, 865W, 30, 1007, TD

[Sciencerocks]

[cane5]

Last year I remember we had a storm at the earliest time I’ve seen it and the patterns had no historical value. Again we have a storm in similar fashion however not expected to get through the dry environment. Months later we had a catastrophic Hurricane in the Southwestern Gulf coast. We should be in for an anything goes Hurricane season. Great to see our board is off to a good start. Keep the significant info coming. Good luck to all and be safe.

Actually the German model called that stormi perfectly.

[cane5]

Last year I remember we had a storm at the earliest time I’ve seen it and the patterns had no historical value. Again we have a storm in similar fashion however not expected to get through the dry environment. Months later we had a catastrophic Hurricane in the Southwestern Gulf coast. We should be in for an anything goes Hurricane season. Great to see our board is off to a good start. Keep the significant info coming. Good luck to all and be safe.

Actually the German model called that storm perfectly.

[Gums]

Salute!

Hope just a rain event, but I was here for Alma in 1966 first week of June.

This should come close to Alma, but the early storms do not scare the coast folks as much as later.

Gums sends..

[wxman57]

Weak center is even farther-removed from the limited convection now. NHC indicating a more rapid transition to a remnant low and just a chance it could briefly become a TS. Those chances are decreasing. No rain threat for Florida. All associated squalls should remain west of the Peninsula. Any rain there today wasn't from this system.

[chaser1]

For what its worth, TD2 is one of the more well defined naked swirls that I recall.. Looks like the southward motion has commenced.

[Sciencerocks]

[wx98]

Still a depression at 9z and the window is effectively closed for it to become a storm.

[wxman57]

Very strong SW wind shear just south of the exposed center now. No Arlene with this system.

[NDG]

Despite its circulation halfway exposed the recon finds a much better defined LLC. Pressures are also lower than estimated earlier.

[cycloneye]

Still a TD unless at the last minute, they do the upgrade.

AL, 02, 2023060212, , BEST, 0, 270N, 864W, 30, 1004, TD

[GCANE]

Seems its stalling out.
Last recon fix has it north of forecast track.

[GCANE]

Incredibly strong rain rate at ~55mm/hr.
Seeing strong divergence NE of the LL center.
With it possibly stalling out, it may have more life in it since it'll be in the lower shear zone of the UL trough.

[GCANE]

Very nice hot tower going off
27.4N 86.0W
Seeing relatively low CAPE.
Must be getting energy from Loop-Current WISHE