ATL: ARLENE - Post-Tropical

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138884
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

ATL: ARLENE - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby cycloneye » Wed May 31, 2023 1:55 pm

AL, 91, 2023053118, , BEST, 0, 264N, 859W, 20, 1009, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 120, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 005, SPAWNINVEST, al752023 to al912023,


https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal912023.dat
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

Sciencerocks
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7281
Age: 38
Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:51 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#2 Postby Sciencerocks » Wed May 31, 2023 2:01 pm

Image
2 likes   

User avatar
jfk08c
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 149
Joined: Mon Jun 11, 2018 4:36 pm
Location: Lakeland, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#3 Postby jfk08c » Wed May 31, 2023 2:07 pm

I might be going crazy but I swear I can see on radar the largest band feeding into some vorticity, it's getting sheared apart but still impressive
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138884
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#4 Postby cycloneye » Wed May 31, 2023 2:22 pm

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
ronjon
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4671
Joined: Fri Aug 19, 2005 5:17 pm
Location: Hernando Beach, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#5 Postby ronjon » Wed May 31, 2023 2:28 pm

Looks like the shear monster will probably prevent this one from developing. Probably the next 24-48 hrs is the best chance for a TD but think the odds of that are low at the moment. None of the models are really showing significant strengthening. Early season storm struggles.
0 likes   

Sciencerocks
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7281
Age: 38
Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:51 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#6 Postby Sciencerocks » Wed May 31, 2023 2:53 pm

jfk08c wrote:I might be going crazy but I swear I can see on radar the largest band feeding into some vorticity, it's getting sheared apart but still impressive


It does appear to be an ill defined LLC around ~26/86. A lot of shear is keeping it bare!
0 likes   

User avatar
Nimbus
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4928
Joined: Mon Jul 19, 2004 10:54 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#7 Postby Nimbus » Wed May 31, 2023 3:16 pm



You can see the lightning strikes along a narrow feeder that is riding up over St Petersburg Florida currently.
Not very impressive about an inch an hour rainfall rate and no wind to speak of.
Octopus might have a little more later if the shear lets up though.
3 likes   

Stormlover1970
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 32
Age: 54
Joined: Sun May 22, 2022 9:26 am
Location: New Port Richey, Florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#8 Postby Stormlover1970 » Wed May 31, 2023 3:37 pm

Very Tropical feel outside but I agree too much shear. Could get heavy rain from the bands training
1 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22473
Age: 66
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#9 Postby wxman57 » Wed May 31, 2023 4:47 pm

Just a weak swirl. Nothing to get alarmed about. I'm even taking a vacation day Friday (Shhh! Don't tell the tropics!)
5 likes   

User avatar
AtlanticWind
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1805
Age: 65
Joined: Sun Aug 08, 2004 9:57 pm
Location: Plantation,Fla

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#10 Postby AtlanticWind » Wed May 31, 2023 4:54 pm

wxman57 wrote:Just a weak swirl. Nothing to get alarmed about. I'm even taking a vacation day Friday (Shhh! Don't tell the tropics!)

Thats it , putting up shutters now :D
11 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138884
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#11 Postby cycloneye » Wed May 31, 2023 6:36 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed May 31 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Eastern Gulf of Mexico (AL91):
An area of low pressure over the eastern Gulf of Mexico is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms mainly to the
northeast of the center. Environmental conditions appear marginally
favorable for some slow development over the next day or two as the
system meanders over the eastern or northeastern Gulf of Mexico.
However, by this weekend environmental conditions are forecast to
become unfavorable for additional development as the system drifts
southeastward towards the Florida Peninsula. Regardless of
development, the system could produce heavy rainfall and gusty winds
over portions of the Florida Peninsula through this weekend. An Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate
the system on Thursday, if necessary. Additional information on the
rainfall and flooding potential can be found in products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office and Excessive
Rainfall Outlooks issued by the Weather Prediction Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Beven
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

Stormlover1970
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 32
Age: 54
Joined: Sun May 22, 2022 9:26 am
Location: New Port Richey, Florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#12 Postby Stormlover1970 » Wed May 31, 2023 7:29 pm

Swirl south of the panhandle
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138884
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#13 Postby cycloneye » Wed May 31, 2023 7:52 pm

AL, 91, 2023060100, , BEST, 0, 267N, 857W, 20, 1008, LO
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22473
Age: 66
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#14 Postby wxman57 » Wed May 31, 2023 9:37 pm

I'm not so sure it's going to move across Florida now. All models (GFS, CMC, ECMWF, ICON) take it south toward western Cuba by Saturday where it dissipates. May not even bring much rain to Florida. Development seems quite unlikely.
0 likes   

User avatar
jasons2k
Storm2k Executive
Storm2k Executive
Posts: 8071
Age: 50
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 12:32 pm
Location: The Woodlands, TX

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#15 Postby jasons2k » Wed May 31, 2023 10:25 pm

My relatives in the bay area were happy to get some much-needed rain today.
0 likes   

Sciencerocks
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7281
Age: 38
Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:51 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#16 Postby Sciencerocks » Wed May 31, 2023 10:42 pm

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
AtlanticWind
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1805
Age: 65
Joined: Sun Aug 08, 2004 9:57 pm
Location: Plantation,Fla

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#17 Postby AtlanticWind » Thu Jun 01, 2023 12:28 am

Hwrf gets system down to 993 mb
0 likes   

Sciencerocks
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7281
Age: 38
Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:51 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#18 Postby Sciencerocks » Thu Jun 01, 2023 12:33 am

Convection looking better organized so I wouldn't discount the possibility of this becoming a depression or maybe a low end tropical storm during the next couple of days.....I'd say 40%.

Image
1 likes   

User avatar
JetFuel_SE
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 261
Age: 24
Joined: Thu Apr 30, 2020 3:57 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#19 Postby JetFuel_SE » Thu Jun 01, 2023 3:50 am

Sciencerocks wrote:Convection looking better organized so I wouldn't discount the possibility of this becoming a depression or maybe a low end tropical storm during the next couple of days.....I'd say 40%.

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/8238/zfvkJf.gif

Continues to look good, 20/20 is way too low for this, I'd say it's closer to 50/50, probably higher.

Image
Image
1 likes   

User avatar
GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10787
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#20 Postby GCANE » Thu Jun 01, 2023 4:34 am

Getting hit by quite a bit of shear now
1 likes   


Return to “2023”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests