ATL: ARLENE - Post-Tropical

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Re: ATL: TWO - Tropical Depression

#121 Postby Sciencerocks » Fri Jun 02, 2023 8:29 am

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Re: ATL: TWO - Tropical Depression

#122 Postby Sciencerocks » Fri Jun 02, 2023 8:49 am

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Re: ATL: TWO - Tropical Depression

#123 Postby tolakram » Fri Jun 02, 2023 9:01 am

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Re: ATL: TWO - Tropical Depression

#124 Postby GCANE » Fri Jun 02, 2023 9:21 am

Looks like it may reform CoC to the east
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Re: ATL: TWO - Tropical Depression

#125 Postby wxman57 » Fri Jun 02, 2023 9:38 am

No upgrade. Still TD Two. Good.
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Re: ATL: TWO - Tropical Depression

#126 Postby NDG » Fri Jun 02, 2023 9:39 am

It will be interesting if they upgrade it at 11 AM, unflagged 45 knot flight level winds and latest pressure down to 1001 mb, it trying to catch up to the convection.

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Re: ATL: TWO - Tropical Depression

#127 Postby tropicwatch » Fri Jun 02, 2023 9:42 am

Based on recon positions, it seems to have been drifting ESE the past couple of hours.
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Re: ATL: TWO - Tropical Depression

#128 Postby GCANE » Fri Jun 02, 2023 9:44 am

Its getting into a sweet spot to likely intensify some.
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Re: ATL: TWO - Tropical Depression

#129 Postby NDG » Fri Jun 02, 2023 9:46 am

I'm shocked they are not upgrading it, that's the lowest pressure I've ever seen out of TD in the Atlantic Basin, lol.
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Re: ATL: TWO - Tropical Depression

#130 Postby gatorcane » Fri Jun 02, 2023 9:48 am

wxman57 wrote:Very strong SW wind shear just south of the exposed center now. No Arlene with this system.


“Very strong SW wind shear” will probably be a repeatedly used phrase for Caribbean and Gulf systems this hurricane season as an El Niño looks to be in the way.

This system should get ripped apart over the next couple of days but should continue to pump in rain and moisture into Florida. Flood watch for South Florida.
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Re: ATL: TWO - Tropical Depression

#131 Postby GCANE » Fri Jun 02, 2023 9:59 am

It is definitely tapping into the Loop Current.
Feeder band south of the CoC and over the Loop Current is starting to fire convection.
One big-ass hot tower and alarms may go off.
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Re: ATL: TWO - Tropical Depression

#132 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Jun 02, 2023 10:04 am

FL, SFMR, and ASCAT (when factoring in instrument low bias - see Chou 2013) support tropical storm so I am confused why the NHC has not pulled the trigger. It was also really odd how the NHC blended Dvorak with real time aircraft observations.
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Re: ATL: TWO - Tropical Depression

#133 Postby Sciencerocks » Fri Jun 02, 2023 10:23 am

Appears to be getting better organized and is almost certainly deserving of an upgrade. Fingers crossed.
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Re: ATL: TWO - Tropical Depression

#134 Postby NDG » Fri Jun 02, 2023 10:30 am

gatorcane wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Very strong SW wind shear just south of the exposed center now. No Arlene with this system.


“Very strong SW wind shear” will probably be a repeatedly used phrase for Caribbean and Gulf systems this hurricane season as an El Niño looks to be in the way.

This system should get ripped apart over the next couple of days but should continue to pump in rain and moisture into Florida. Flood watch for South Florida.


Shear is actually below average for this time of the year across the GOM and Caribbean, with long range models showing near average to below average shear across the Caribbean through September, the reason most models show an above average season in the Atlantic.

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Re: ATL: TWO - Tropical Depression

#135 Postby Tailgater33 » Fri Jun 02, 2023 10:32 am

I don’t see this one lasting much longer, dry air pushing in from the north and strong UL SW shear. I think bones will be called out tonight.
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Re: ATL: TWO - Tropical Depression

#136 Postby Sciencerocks » Fri Jun 02, 2023 10:51 am

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Re: ATL: TWO - Tropical Depression

#137 Postby NDG » Fri Jun 02, 2023 10:55 am



50 knots flight level winds a few minutes ago.
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Re: ATL: TWO - Tropical Depression

#138 Postby Nimbus » Fri Jun 02, 2023 11:25 am

Better check the model runs to see if they made any big changes before starting the named system warning protocols.
Still Havana consensus as a shredded system?
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Re: ATL: TWO - Tropical Depression

#139 Postby NDG » Fri Jun 02, 2023 11:43 am

Unflagged 53 knot flight level wind at 2,400 feet, with no precipitation, time for an upgrade IMO.

162730 2717N 08622W 9245 00730 0061 +174 +173 040050 053 028 000 00
Last edited by NDG on Fri Jun 02, 2023 11:45 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: TWO - Tropical Depression

#140 Postby Hurricane2022 » Fri Jun 02, 2023 11:45 am

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Tropical Depression.
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