ATL: ARLENE - Post-Tropical

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LarryWx
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Re: ATL: TWO - Tropical Depression

#141 Postby LarryWx » Fri Jun 02, 2023 11:51 am

NDG wrote:Unflagged 53 knot flight level wind at 2,400 feet, with no precipitation, time for an upgrade IMO.

162730 2717N 08622W 9245 00730 0061 +174 +173 040050 053 028 000 00


Fair enough and perhaps it will be upgraded. However, that is ~40 miles N of the center, which is near 26.6 N as of now with the S movement. Is that close enough to the center to warrant an upgrade?
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Re: ATL: TWO - Tropical Depression

#142 Postby Sciencerocks » Fri Jun 02, 2023 12:04 pm

I doubt being 40 miles away from the center is a good argument against an upgrade of a system that is being sheared with southwesterly shear.
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Re: ATL: TWO - Tropical Depression

#143 Postby NDG » Fri Jun 02, 2023 12:07 pm

This should do it, finally some TS force winds by SFMR with fairly light precip.

165600 2734N 08555W 9242 00720 0045 +179 +168 081045 046 032 004 00
165630 2736N 08555W 9249 00715 0045 +187 +156 081048 048 037 001 00
165700 2737N 08555W 9249 00716 0046 +186 +143 082049 050 036 001 00
165730 2739N 08554W 9247 00720 0048 +187 +142 082048 049 036 001 00
165800 2740N 08554W 9246 00722 0049 +190 +135 081045 048 034 002 00
165830 2742N 08554W 9245 00723 0051 +191 +135 083044 045 035 001 00
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Re: ATL: TWO - Tropical Depression

#144 Postby LarryWx » Fri Jun 02, 2023 12:14 pm

NDG wrote:This should do it, finally some TS force winds by SFMR with fairly light precip.

165600 2734N 08555W 9242 00720 0045 +179 +168 081045 046 032 004 00
165630 2736N 08555W 9249 00715 0045 +187 +156 081048 048 037 001 00
165700 2737N 08555W 9249 00716 0046 +186 +143 082049 050 036 001 00
165730 2739N 08554W 9247 00720 0048 +187 +142 082048 049 036 001 00
165800 2740N 08554W 9246 00722 0049 +190 +135 081045 048 034 002 00
165830 2742N 08554W 9245 00723 0051 +191 +135 083044 045 035 001 00


Thanks. Aren't these even further north of the center? 27.36 N recon vs ~26.6 center. Is that close enough? Tough call. Close to 60 miles N it appears.
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Re: ATL: TWO - Tropical Depression

#145 Postby NDG » Fri Jun 02, 2023 12:16 pm

LarryWx wrote:
NDG wrote:This should do it, finally some TS force winds by SFMR with fairly light precip.

165600 2734N 08555W 9242 00720 0045 +179 +168 081045 046 032 004 00
165630 2736N 08555W 9249 00715 0045 +187 +156 081048 048 037 001 00
165700 2737N 08555W 9249 00716 0046 +186 +143 082049 050 036 001 00
165730 2739N 08554W 9247 00720 0048 +187 +142 082048 049 036 001 00
165800 2740N 08554W 9246 00722 0049 +190 +135 081045 048 034 002 00
165830 2742N 08554W 9245 00723 0051 +191 +135 083044 045 035 001 00


Thanks. Aren't these even further north of the center? 27.42 N recon vs ~26.6 center. Is that close enough? Tough call.


That should be close enough as weak sheared systems most times have their strongest winds away from the LLC.
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Re: ATL: TWO - Tropical Depression

#146 Postby NDG » Fri Jun 02, 2023 12:25 pm

Finally we have TS Arlene!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Re: ATL: ARLENE - Tropical Storm

#147 Postby NDG » Fri Jun 02, 2023 12:26 pm

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Re: ATL: ARLENE - Tropical Storm

#148 Postby Nimbus » Fri Jun 02, 2023 1:13 pm

Clear pattern of improving circulation with the CDO moving closer to the center.
2PM should have more track info for Arlene.
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Re: ATL: ARLENE - Tropical Storm

#149 Postby Sciencerocks » Fri Jun 02, 2023 3:16 pm

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Re: ATL: ARLENE - Tropical Storm

#150 Postby Nimbus » Fri Jun 02, 2023 4:08 pm

And there is our evening naked swirl headed south.
At least the west coast of Florida is getting much needed rain.

"Although Arlene has strengthened a little today, the models are in
good agreement that increasing vertical wind shear and notably
drier air are expected to affect the cyclone beginning tonight.
These conditions should cause a weakening trend, and Arlene is
expected to become a remnant low on Saturday and dissipate on
Sunday.

The main hazard expected from Arlene is the potential for heavy rain
over portions of south and central Florida through Saturday.
"
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Re: ATL: ARLENE - Tropical Storm

#151 Postby toad strangler » Fri Jun 02, 2023 4:35 pm

Nimbus wrote:And there is our evening naked swirl headed south.
At least the west coast of Florida is getting much needed rain.

"Although Arlene has strengthened a little today, the models are in
good agreement that increasing vertical wind shear and notably
drier air are expected to affect the cyclone beginning tonight.
These conditions should cause a weakening trend, and Arlene is
expected to become a remnant low on Saturday and dissipate on
Sunday.

The main hazard expected from Arlene is the potential for heavy rain
over portions of south and central Florida through Saturday.
"


Those storms over the western interior portion of the FL peninsula are from a dominant east coast sea breeze colliding with west coast sea breeze. Really have nothing to do with Arlene herself.
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Re: ATL: ARLENE - Tropical Storm

#152 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jun 02, 2023 4:47 pm

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Re: ATL: ARLENE - Tropical Storm

#153 Postby Nimbus » Fri Jun 02, 2023 5:06 pm

Those storms over the western interior portion of the FL peninsula are from a dominant east coast sea breeze colliding with west coast sea breeze. Really have nothing to do with Arlene herself.[/quote]



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Re: ATL: ARLENE - Tropical Storm

#154 Postby toad strangler » Fri Jun 02, 2023 6:14 pm

Nimbus wrote:Those storms over the western interior portion of the FL peninsula are from a dominant east coast sea breeze colliding with west coast sea breeze. Really have nothing to do with Arlene herself.


Not directly related. Seabreeze wet season influenced.

https://i.imgur.com/x6u4SuG.gif[/quote]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
932 AM EDT Fri Jun 2 2023

...New UPDATE, MARINE, AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 853 AM EDT Fri Jun 2 2023

Another day with a similar weather regime in place which means much of the same can be expected as the last couple of days. Currently, KMLB radar imagery shows scattered showers and lightning storms over the western Atlantic. Analysis charts and satellite imagery show Tropical Depression Two churning over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

Scattered to numerous showers and lighting storms are expected to develop into this afternoon as daytime heating increases. A predominate east to northeasterly flow in place will keep the greatest forcing across the western interior and especially towards the western coast of Florida as the west coast sea breeze collides pushes inland into the afternoon.
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Re: ATL: ARLENE - Tropical Storm

#155 Postby Sciencerocks » Fri Jun 02, 2023 6:17 pm

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Re: ATL: ARLENE - Tropical Storm

#156 Postby Hurricane2022 » Fri Jun 02, 2023 6:23 pm

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Recon found that Arlene has deepened to 999 mb.
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Re: ATL: ARLENE - Tropical Storm

#157 Postby aspen » Fri Jun 02, 2023 6:37 pm

999/8 drop, so maybe 998mb central pressure. This is a lot stronger than I thought this system was going to end up. I’m curious to see if winds have picked up in the NE quad with the new convective bursts.
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Re: ATL: ARLENE - Tropical Storm

#158 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jun 02, 2023 7:47 pm

AL, 02, 2023060300, , BEST, 0, 258N, 857W, 35, 999, TS
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Re: ATL: ARLENE - Tropical Storm

#159 Postby Sciencerocks » Fri Jun 02, 2023 10:27 pm

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Re: ATL: ARLENE - Tropical Storm

#160 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Fri Jun 02, 2023 11:13 pm


Circulation really becoming barren now. All downhill from here environmentally. I will say though, I was honestly surprised this managed to become sub-1000 mbar.
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