ATL: ARLENE - Models

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DorkyMcDorkface
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ATL: ARLENE - Models

#1 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Wed May 31, 2023 1:26 pm

Seeing model consensus of something very weak briefly developing and drifting around in the central Gulf. They also show said system eventually dissipating without making landfall, which would be a rare occurrence.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#2 Postby cycloneye » Wed May 31, 2023 6:25 pm

18z GFS.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#3 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Wed May 31, 2023 6:31 pm

cycloneye wrote:18z GFS.

https://i.imgur.com/Bmj4Amp.gif

There's been a bit of an uptrend over the past three GFS runs today. The window is small but we'll see if we can squeeze out a brief TD/weak TS out of this before shear inevitably has it for lunch.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#4 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 01, 2023 7:50 am

06z GFS.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#5 Postby ronjon » Thu Jun 01, 2023 8:42 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#6 Postby ronjon » Thu Jun 01, 2023 8:45 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#7 Postby wxman57 » Thu Jun 01, 2023 3:03 pm

Look for any 21Z NHC track to be very close to this consensus track (TVCN). The system will likely be dissipating Saturday night west of Havana. Not much of it left to track NE toward south Florida or the Bahamas. Too much shear down there.

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Re: ATL: TWO - Models

#8 Postby Nimbus » Thu Jun 01, 2023 3:42 pm

These slow southerly drifting storm tracks head east and northeast with the next front that comes along, they don't just descend all the way to Honduras.
Gulf upper air is fairly dry and there should be some shear that would disrupt a weak system ahead of the next front.
Tracking over Havana as a sheared system is certainly possible.
Just wondering about the confidence in the forecast at this point and are there any track similarities to early storms of other years?
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