WPAC: KHANUN - Post-Tropical

[mrbagyo]

Yakushima recorded a pressure of 977.1 hpa at around 23:30 JST

[Sciencerocks]

[Mob1]

Khanun still has an impressive wind field with Makurazaki reporting a 93 mph gusts today (at 30 meters).

[cycloneye]

WDPN32 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR
051//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 30.5N 129.8E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 156 NM SOUTH OF SASEBO, JAPAN
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 25 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO A LARGE, EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) THAT HAS RELATIVELY BECOME SMALLER OVER THE PAST
12HRS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON
THE LLC FEATURE IN THE EIR LOOP AND ALSO ON A COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ALSO PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON
THE OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES
AND REFLECTS THE SLIGHT 6-HR WRAP IMPROVEMENT. ANALYSIS INDICATES A
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD VENTILATION AND LOW VWS
ALOFT, AND WARM SST OFFSET BY SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE NORTHEAST SIDE
AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT IN THE LOWER LEVELS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTHEAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
RJTD: T3.5 - 55 KTS
KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
CIMSS ADT: 32 KTS AT 081730Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
VWS: 0-5 KTS
SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD
OTHER FACTORS: MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW.

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 06W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARD THE KOREAN PENINSULA VIA THE KOREAN STRAIT UNDER THE
STEERING STR, MAKING LANDFALL WEST OF BUSAN AROUND TAU 30, THEN
TRACK JUST TO THE WEST OF SEOUL BY TAU 48 BEFORE CROSSING INTO
NORTH KOREA. THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE A
SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 60KTS AT TAUS 12-24.
AFTERWARD, INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF THE KOREAN
PENINSULA COMBINED WITH RAPIDLY INCREASING VWS WILL LEAD TO RAPID
DETERIORATION TO 35KTS NEAR SEOUL THEN TO EVENTUAL DISSIPATION BY
TAU 72 AFTER THE SYSTEM CROSSES INTO NORTH KOREA.


MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. DUE TO THE
VARIABILITY OF LAND PASSAGE, THERE IS ONLY OVERALL MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//

[cycloneye]

WDPN32 PGTW 090300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR
052//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 30.5N 129.8E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 156 NM SOUTH OF SASEBO, JAPAN
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 25 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO A LARGE, EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) THAT HAS RELATIVELY BECOME SMALLER OVER THE PAST
12HRS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON
THE LLC FEATURE IN THE EIR LOOP AND ALSO ON A COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ALSO PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON
THE OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES
AND REFLECTS THE SLIGHT 6-HR WRAP IMPROVEMENT. ANALYSIS INDICATES A
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD VENTILATION AND LOW VWS
ALOFT, AND WARM SST OFFSET BY SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE NORTHEAST SIDE
AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT IN THE LOW LEVELS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTHEAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
RJTD: T3.5 - 55 KTS
KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
CIMSS ADT: 32 KTS AT 081730Z
CIMSS D-MINT: 62 KTS AT 082132Z
CIMSS D-PRINT: 59 KTS AT 090100Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
VWS: 0-5 KTS
SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD
OTHER FACTORS: MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW.

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 06W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARD THE KOREAN PENINSULA VIA THE KOREAN STRAIT UNDER THE
STEERING STR, MAKING LANDFALL WEST OF BUSAN AROUND TAU 30, THEN
TRACK JUST TO THE WEST OF SEOUL BY TAU 48 BEFORE CROSSING INTO
NORTH KOREA. THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE A
SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 60KTS AT TAUS 12-24.
AFTERWARD, INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF THE KOREAN
PENINSULA COMBINED WITH RAPIDLY INCREASING VWS WILL LEAD TO RAPID
DETERIORATION TO 35KTS NEAR SEOUL THEN TO EVENTUAL DISSIPATION BY
TAU 72 AFTER THE SYSTEM CROSSES INTO NORTH KOREA.


MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. DUE TO THE
VARIABILITY OF LAND PASSAGE, THERE IS ONLY OVERALL MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN

[cycloneye]

WDPN32 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR
053//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 31.5N 128.9E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 104 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SASEBO, JAPAN
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 25 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A BROAD EXPOSED CENTER THAT
CONTINUES TO BECOME SMALLER OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A 090500Z
AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BAND
OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE BANDS TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED
CENTER IN THE MSI LOOP ALONG WITH THE LLCC IN THE AMSR2
MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 55 KNOTS BASED ON
A COMBINATION OF OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM T3.0 (45 KNOTS) TO T3.5 (55 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD AND
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS) OFFSET BY DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTHEAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
CIMSS ADT: 33 KTS AT 090220Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
VWS: 0-5 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD
OTHER FACTORS: MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 06W IS FORECAST TO TRACK
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. LANDFALL IS EXPECTED TO THE WEST OF BUSAN AFTER TAU
24, WITH THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY MOVING INTO CHINA BY TAU 72. IN TERMS OF
INTENSITY, THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS), GOOD EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD
OUTFLOW WILL PROMOTE SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 60 KNOTS.
BY TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE LANDFALL AND THE INTERACTION WITH THE
KOREAN PENINSULA WILL LEAD TO DETERIORATION TO 40 KNOTS BY TAU 36 AND
THEN TO EVENTUAL DISSIPATION BY TAU 72.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A 80NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS BY TAU
72. THEREFORE, THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC INTENSITY
FORECAST WITH INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWING A STEADY DECREASING TREND
AFTER TAU 24 WITH SOME POTENTIAL VARIABILITY IN THE INTENSITY DUE
TO LAND INTERACTION.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

WDPN32 PGTW 091500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR
054//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 32.4N 128.8E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 60 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 62 NM SOUTHWEST OF SASEBO, JAPAN
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWARD AT 09 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 25 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN
OVERALL ASYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH A MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION
LARGELY ON THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE WITH A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ADDITIONALLY, WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW STREAMING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE SYSTEMS CENTER. AN EARLIER 090849Z SSMIS 89 GHZ IMAGE
DEPICTS A DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND OVER THE NORTHERN QUADRANT, WRAPPING
INTO THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY ALONG WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE AND WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO
AGENCY DVORAK POSITION FIXES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS IS
ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 090924Z SAR PASS WHICH
SHOWS 55-60 KNOTS ON THE NORTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE. IN ADDITION TO
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY'S FROM PGTW AND KNES ALONG WITH
OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
VWS: 10-15 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD
OTHER FACTORS: STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW


ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: THE OVERALL TRACK OF TS 06W REMAINS CONSISTENT
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, AS THE SYSTEM TRANSITS QUICKLY
NORTHWESTWARD WITHIN ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WHICH REMAIN
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST)
OFFSET BY DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. LANDFALL IS EXPECTED TO THE WEST OF
BUSAN AFTER TAU 12, INTERACTION WITH THE KOREAN PENINSULA WILL LEAD
TO DETERIORATION TO 35 KNOTS BY TAU 36 AND THEN TO EVENTUAL
DISSIPATION BY TAU 72.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ONLY A 97NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD BETWEEN
CONSENSUS MEMBERS THROUGH TAU 72. THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST WITH INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWING A
STEADY DECREASING TREND AFTER TAU 12 WITH SOME POTENTIAL
VARIABILITY IN THE INTENSITY DUE TO LAND INTERACTION.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN

[cycloneye]

WDPN32 PGTW 092100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR
055//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 33.7N 128.8E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 58 NM NORTHWEST OF SASEBO, JAPAN
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWARD AT 13 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 22 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
AND THE BAND PLAYS ON. AFTER A FIVE-DAY SWING THROUGH OKINAWA AND THE
RYUKUS TROPICAL STORM KHANUN IS NOW ROCKING SASEBO AND CHINHAE ALONG
ITS SUMMER TOUR THROUGH WPAC. SASEBO WINDS HAVE COME UP TO SUSTAINED
SMALL CRAFT FORCE WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS. THE SYSTEM IS SHOWING A
SLIGHT WOBBLE AND THE SLIGHTEST SIGNS OF DECAY DUE TO AND INTERACTION
AS IT TREKS ACROSS THE TSUSHIMA STRAIT. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS SPECTACULAR POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND A DIMINISHING EQUATORWARD
CHANNEL. ALONG TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DECREASE ABOUT 2
DEGREES C BUT REMAIN SUBSTANTIVE WHILE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES
SHARPLY NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF PENINSULA. DEEP CONVECTION IS NOW
CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT BUT THE CORE REMAINS TIGHTLY
WRAPPED. THERE IS, HOWEVER, A DEARTH OF CONVECTION IN THE CORE, WHICH
ALLOWED FOR EASILY POSITIONING OF THE SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY ASSESSMENT
IS BASED IN UNANIMOUS T3.5 FROM FOUR AGENCIES. DPRINT, DMINT, AND AIDT
OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE IS 5 KNOTS HIGHER, BUT DUE TO FALLING DATA T FROM
PGTW AND PLUNGING ADT RAW MEASUREMENTS, THE AGENCY CI ASSESSMENTS
LOOK TO BE THE MOST ACCURATE.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE FROM 090924Z SAR PASS.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDG.E

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
RJTD: T3.5 - 55 KTS
RCTP: T3.5 - 55 KTS
KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
CIMSS SATCON: 58 KTS AT 091530Z
CIMSS ADT: 32 KTS AT 091740Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 15-20 KTS
SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06W WILL WEAKEN AS IT
APPROACHES LANDFALL TO THE WEST OF CHINHAE. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
LAND INTERACTION WILL INITIATE THE FINAL DECLINE OF THE SYSTEM.
THERE IS ENOUGH ENERGY LEFT FOR THE SYSTEM TO REMAIN VIABLE WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND ABUNDANT PRECIPITATION AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE OSAN,
HUMPREYS, AND FINALLY SEOUL AREA. IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO GO BELOW
35 KNOTS UNTIL NORTH OF THE 38TH PARALLEL. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE FORCING THE SYSTEM TO THE WEST OF NORTH MAKING FOR A VERY
BRIEF RE-ENTRY INTO THE WEST SEA BEFORE FINALLY DISSIPATING OVER
THE CHINESE BORDER.

MODEL DISCUSSION: BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS TIGHTER THAN
USUAL. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST STAYS NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS WHILE THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE
ON THE OVERLAND DECLINE OVER THAN THE MEAN, BUT ALIGNS WITH THE
TREND.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN

[Sciencerocks]

[Sciencerocks]

 https://twitter.com/zoom_earth/status/1689412434405036032

[doomhaMwx]

Looks like it slightly weakened before landfall. Minimum pressures recorded by buoys near the SK coast were ~980mb. That said, Khanun is still a significant rainfall threat to almost the entire Korean Peninsula.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/VortixWx/status/1689455883590180864

[cycloneye]

WDPN32 PGTW 100300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR
056//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 34.8N 128.7E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 19 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CHINHAE, SOUTH
KOREA
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWARD AT 11 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) IS NOW FEET DRY JUST WEST OF CHINHAE.
ANIMATED MULTIPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS HEAVY CLOUD COVER AND DEEP
CONVECTION SPREADING OVER THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA. SURPRISINGLY THERE
ARE VERY FEW CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTING REPORTS THUS FAR. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS ALL BUT CUT OFF BUT A
VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL STILL EXISTS. SKIES ARE CLEARING
TO THE WEST OF CHEJU DO AND SMALL CRAFT TO LOW GALE FORCE
NORTHWESTERLIES ARE SPREADING ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST. THE
INTENSITY JUST PRIOR TO COMING ASHORE WAS ASSESSED AT 45KTS BASED
ON UNANIMOUS SUBJECTIVE DVORAKS FROM FOUR AGENCIES.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SURFACE REPORTS FROM THE SOUTHERN
PENINSULA AND KOREAN STRAIT.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE, WHICH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER NORTHERN
HONSHU.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
RJTD: T3.0 - 45 KTS
RCTP: T3.0 - 45 KTS
KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
VWS: 10-15 KTS
SST: OVER LAND
OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, OROGRAPHIC LIFT,
AND GENEROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL SUSTAIN TC 06W ALL THE WAY
ACROSS THE DMZ. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN GRADUALLY AND IS EXPECTED TO
BRIEFLY TRACK BACK OVER WATER, NOT DISSIPATING COMPLETELY UNTIL IT
IS OVER THE CHINA NORTH KOREA BORDER. THE SYSTEM SHOULD PRODUCE
COPIOUS RAINFALL ALONG WITH FLOODING AND MUD HAZARDS ALONG ITS
TRACK.

MODEL DISCUSSION: BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT. THE JTWC FORECAST LIES NEAR THE MULTI MODEL ENSEMBLE
MEANS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN