ATL: FRANKLIN - Advisories

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Franklin Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
500 PM AST Sun Aug 20 2023

...TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN FORMS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA..
...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF HAITI AND
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 67.1W
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SSE OF ISLA SAONA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SSW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Dominican Republic has issued a Tropical
Storm Watch for the entire south coast of the from the Haiti border
eastward to Isla Saona.

The government of Haiti has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
the south coast of Anse d'Hainault eastward to the
Dominican Republic Border.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Haiti entire south coast from Anse d'Hainault eastward to the
Dominican Republic border.
* Dominican Republic entire south coast from Haiti border eastward
to Isla Saona.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti and the Dominican Republic should
monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was
located near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 67.1 West. Franklin is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A
west-northwestward track is expected to continue for the next day or
so followed by a sharp turn to the north. On the forecast track,
Franklin should approach the coast of Hispaniola on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds measured by NOAA reconnaissance aircraft
are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is
forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure measured by NOAA reconnaissance
aircraft is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area beginning late Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Franklin is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 4
inches, with isolated higher amounts of 6 inches, across Puerto Rico
through the middle of the week. Rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches,
with isolated higher amounts up to 12 inches, will be possible
across portions of Hispaniola.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Tropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
500 PM AST Sun Aug 20 2023

This afternoon we have received a wealth of data from both a NOAA
reconnaissance mission and satellite imagery near the area of low
pressure located in the eastern Caribbean Sea. Earlier visible
satellite imagery showed the system had likely formed a tight
low-level vortex based on the earlier cloud motions before a
convective burst obscured the center. Scatterometer data that
clipped the system on the east side also showed winds near tropical
storm intensity. The NOAA aircraft flew through the system shortly
thereafter, and found the system had indeed formed a well-defined
center, with 950-mb flight level winds of 51 kt just to the
northeast of the center. All this information confirms that
Tropical Storm Franklin has formed this afternoon, with an initial
intensity set at 40 kt.

The initial motion is off to the west-northwest at 290/12 kt. Over
the next 24 hours this general motion should continue while the
system remains steered by a narrow mid-level ridge. Thereafter, a
large mid-ocean trough over the western Atlantic will produce a
pronounced weakness in this ridging, likely causing the tropical
storm to make a sharp turn northward, bringing the storm near or
over the large island of Hispaniola in about 48-60 h. Afterwards,
another mid-latitude trough is forecast to amplify southward,
maintaining this weakness, and resulting in Franklin turning
northeastward towards the end of the forecast period. There is a
decent amount of spread in the track guidance, related to just when
Franklin will make the initial northward turn. For this initial
forecast, the NHC track forecast will stick close to the track
consensus TVCN, which favors a track in between the latest ECMWF and
GFS solutions, favoring the GFS a bit more.

Intensity wise, Franklin may have to deal with a bit of westerly
wind shear in the short-term, limiting more robust intensification
early on. However, this shear drops off as the system makes its turn
northward towards Hispaniola a bit more intensification is shown
with a 55-kt intensity peak as Franklin approaches the coast. The
intensity forecast then is complicated by the fact that Franklin
will likely pass near or over the island sometime in the 2-3 day
time period, and some weakening is shown during this time.
However, the forecast environment after the system re-emerges into
the Western Atlantic looks mostly favorable, with reintensification
likely as long as the system is not too disrupted by the higher
terrain of Hispaniola. The NHC intensity forecast is in good
agreement with the consensus aids, and lies closest to the HFIP
corrected consensus approach through the forecast period.

Based on the current track forecast, a tropical storm watch has
been issued for the entire southern coastline of Haiti and the
Dominican Republic.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Franklin is forecast to approach Hispaniola late on Tuesday and
move across the island on Wednesday as a tropical storm, bringing a
risk of flooding from heavy rainfall, strong winds, and dangerous
waves along the coast.

2. Heavy rainfall from Franklin is expected across portions of
Puerto Rico and Hispaniola through the middle of the week. The heavy
rainfall may produce areas of flash and urban flooding as well as
river rises and mudslides. Across Hispaniola, significant and
potentially life-threatening flash flooding is possible Tuesday into
Wednesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/2100Z 14.6N 67.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 21/0600Z 15.0N 68.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 21/1800Z 15.4N 70.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 22/0600Z 15.8N 71.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 22/1800Z 17.2N 71.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 23/0600Z 19.1N 71.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
72H 23/1800Z 21.0N 70.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 24/1800Z 23.9N 67.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 25/1800Z 25.4N 65.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Franklin Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
800 PM AST Sun Aug 20 2023

...NOAA AIRCRAFT DATA SHOWS FRANKLIN MAINTAINING STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 67.8W
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SSE OF ISLA SAONA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SSW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Franklin Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
1100 PM AST Sun Aug 20 2023

...FRANKLIN A LITTLE STRONGER...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
HISPANIOLA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 68.3W
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SSE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The government of the Dominican Republic has issued a Tropical
Storm Warning along the south coast of the Dominican Republic from
the border with Haiti eastward to Isla Saona. A Tropical Storm
Watch has been issue for the eastern and northern coast of the
Dominican Republic from Isla Saona eastward and northward to the
northern border with Haiti.



Tropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
1100 PM AST Sun Aug 20 2023

Deep convection continues to burst near and to the east of the
center of Franklin. Earlier NOAA aircraft fixes and more recent
microwave satellite data indicate that the center of Franklin is
located near the northwestern edge of the deep convection due to
moderate westerly shear. The latest Dvorak T-number from TAFB is
T3.0 (45 kt) and SAB provided a data T-number of T2.5 (35 kt). A
very recently arriving ASCAT pass revealed peak winds of 40-45 kt,
therefore the initial intensity has been raised to 45 kt.

Franklin is moving west-northwestward at about 11 kt. A slower
westward to west-northwest motion is forecast overnight. By late
Monday, a deepening trough over the western Atlantic is forecast to
cause Franklin to turn northwestward and then northward toward
Hispaniola. The tropical storm is forecast to pass over that
island Tuesday night, and then move off the north coast of
Hispaniola by early Wednesday. After that time, the amplifying
trough is forecast to turn Franklin northeastward. There is still
a fair amount of spread on where the northward turn will take place
and the official forecast remains near the middle of the guidance
envelope.

Franklin is expected to remain in an environment of moderate
westerly shear during the next couple of days, but it is not likely
to prevent some modest strengthening before Franklin reaches the
southern coast of Hispaniola. Interaction with the mountainous
terrain of Hispaniola is expected to cause some weakening. Once
Franklin moves into the western Atlantic, most of the intensity
guidance suggests additional strengthening is likely and the NHC
forecast follows suit. The NHC intensity forecast is a blend of
the HFIP corrected consensus model and the IVCN multi-model
consensus aid.

Based on the current track forecast, a tropical storm warning
has been issued for the entire southern coastline of Haiti and the
Dominican Republic.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall from Franklin is expected across portions of
Puerto Rico and Hispaniola through the middle of the week. The
heavy rainfall may produce areas of flash and urban flooding as well
as river rises and mudslides. Across Hispaniola, significant and
potentially life-threatening flash flooding is possible Tuesday into
Wednesday.

2. Franklin is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to
portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti beginning on Tuesday
where Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0300Z 14.9N 68.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 15.0N 70.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 15.3N 71.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 22/1200Z 16.2N 71.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 23/0000Z 18.1N 71.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
60H 23/1200Z 20.0N 70.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 24/0000Z 21.9N 69.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 25/0000Z 24.3N 67.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 26/0000Z 26.2N 64.4W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Franklin Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
200 AM AST Mon Aug 21 2023

...FRANKLIN EXPECTED TO CAUSE HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF
HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 68.8W
ABOUT 250 MI...305 KM SSE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
500 AM AST Mon Aug 21 2023

Franklin's cloud pattern has not become significantly better
organized overnight. The system is producing several clusters of
bursting very deep convection, but convective banding features are
not well defined at this time. Based on microwave imagery, the
cyclone center is apparently located near the western edge of the
overall convective mass. The current intensity is held at 45 kt in
agreement with a subjective Dvorak satellite classification from
TAFB. This value is also supported by objective intensity estimates
from UW-CIMSS.

The storm continues moving generally westward, with a motion
estimate of 270/10 kt. Franklin's forecast track is somewhat
problematic. A weakness in the subtropical ridge is expected to
cause the tropical cyclone to turn northward in 24 hours or so.
This should result in Franklin crossing Hispaniola in the 48 hour
time frame. After moving into the Atlantic, Franklin should turn
northeastward while interacting with a mid-level cyclonic
circulation. By late in the forecast period, the mid-level cyclone
lifts out which could allow Franklin to turn more to the left.
However there is more than the usual amount of uncertainty in the
3-5 day track prediction, with lots of spread in the model guidance.
The official forecast, like the previous one, is near the middle of
the guidance envelope and close to the model consensus.

The flow on the south side of a broad upper-level trough to the
northwest of Franklin is causing moderate southwesterly vertical
wind shear over the storm. Dynamical guidance such as the SHIPS
model indicate that Franklin will remain in an environment of
moderate shear for the next several days, and the interaction with
the mountainous land mass of Hispaniola should temporarily disrupt
Franklin's circulation. The current thinking is that the shear will
not be strong enough to prevent the system from eventually becoming
a hurricane over the southwest Atlantic. The official intensity
forecast follows the model consensus.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall from Franklin is expected across portions of
Puerto Rico and Hispaniola through the middle of the week. The
heavy rainfall may produce areas of flash and urban flooding as well
as river rises and mudslides. Across Hispaniola, significant and
potentially life-threatening flash flooding is possible Tuesday into
Wednesday.

2. Franklin is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to
portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti beginning on Tuesday
where Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0900Z 15.0N 69.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 15.0N 70.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 15.3N 71.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 22/1800Z 16.7N 71.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 23/0600Z 18.8N 70.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
60H 23/1800Z 20.9N 70.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 24/0600Z 22.5N 69.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 25/0600Z 24.5N 66.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 26/0600Z 26.0N 64.0W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Franklin Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
800 AM AST Mon Aug 21 2023

...FRANKLIN EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD TOWARDS HISPANIOLA
TOMORROW...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 69.6W
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM S OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm
Watch for the Turks and Caicos Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic entire south coast from Haiti border eastward
to Isla Saona
* Haiti entire south coast from Anse d'Hainault eastward to the
Dominican Republic border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic entire north and east coast from the Haiti
border eastward and southward to Isla Saona
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti and the Dominican Republic should
monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was
located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 69.6 West. Franklin is
moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A westward to
west-northwestward track is expected to continue today. A sharp
turn to the north is expected tonight or early Tuesday, and a
generally northward motion is expected on Tuesday. On the forecast
track, the center of Franklin is forecast to reach the southern
coast of Hispaniola late Tuesday or Tuesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast before Franklin reaches
Hispaniola.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Franklin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

RAINFALL: Franklin is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to
4 inches, with isolated higher amounts of 6 inches, across Puerto
Rico through the middle of the week. Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10
inches, with isolated higher amounts up to 15 inches, will be
possible across portions of Hispaniola.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within the
warning area on Tuesday and are possible within the watch area
beginning late Tuesday into Wednesday.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above ground level along the immediate coast near and to
the east of where the center makes landfall in Hispaniola.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin

[kevin]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Franklin Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
1100 AM EDT Mon Aug 21 2023

...FRANKLIN SLOWING DOWN OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 70.1W
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM S OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

000
WTNT43 KNHC 211445
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
1100 AM EDT Mon Aug 21 2023

There are no lack of cold cloud tops associated with Tropical Storm
Franklin this morning. The structure on satellite consists of a
large bursting pattern, with cloud tops as cold as -90C close to and
just east of the estimated center. However, it is unclear if any of
this deep convection has resulted in structural improvement to
the storm, with the most recent microwave imagery from a SSMIS F-16
pass at 1007 UTC showing a chaotic structure, with evidence the
center remains near the western edge of this large convective
shield. The latest subjective satellite intensity estimates form
TAFB is unchanged from earlier this morning. Thus, the initial
intensity will remain 45 kt this advisory, which is also close to
the latest D-MINT and D-PRINT estimates from UW-CIMSS.

Franklin does appear to be slowing down a tad this morning while
moving westward, with the latest estimate at 270/5 kt. The track
forecast in the short-term is a bit problematic, with a large spread
in model solutions even at 12 h, much higher than the climatological
spread. This initial uncertainty may be related intensity
differences in the global models, with some of the stronger guidance
suggesting the tropical cyclone might reform further to the north
and east over the next 12-24 hours. Thereafter, a large weakness to
the north of Franklin, produced by a large mid-ocean trough draped
across the Western Atlantic, should allow the storm to begin moving
northward. A mid-latitude trough reinforces this weakness to the
north in 60-72h, allowing the storm to begin moving northeastward.
The most significant change in the guidance this cycle is the
majority are quite a bit slower than the prior cycle, and the NHC
forecast track was slowed down a bit, but not as much as some of the
consensus aids.

Currently, Franklin is experiencing some moderate 15-20 kt westerly
shear, which has paused its intensification for the time being.
However, this shear is forecast to gradual decrease as it begins to
move more northward, providing an opportunity for the tropical storm
to strengthen as it approaches Hispaniola. Some weakening appears
likely once the system moves over Hispaniola, especially if the
storm moves over the highest terrain in the Dominican Republic. By
Thursday, Franklin should be back over open waters in the Atlantic
Ocean and has an opportunity to start strengthening again. However,
the environment does not appear to be especially pristine, with the
ECMWF showing more southwesterly vertical wind shear than the GFS.
For now, its assumed this shear will not prevent slow
intensification, possibly because the storm should be moving in the
same direction as the shear vector, and the NHC intensity forecast
will still show Franklin becoming a hurricane towards the end of the
forecast period. This forecast is in best agreement with the HFIP
corrected consensus approach (HCCA) but remains lower than some of
the more aggressive regional-hurricane models (COAMPS-TC, HWRF).


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall from Franklin is expected across portions of
Puerto Rico and Hispaniola through the middle of the week. The
heavy rainfall may produce areas of flash and urban flooding as well
as river rises and mudslides. Across Hispaniola, significant and
potentially life-threatening flash flooding is possible Tuesday into
Wednesday.

2. Franklin is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to
portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti beginning on Tuesday
where Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/1500Z 15.0N 70.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 15.2N 70.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 15.7N 71.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 23/0000Z 17.3N 70.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 23/1200Z 19.2N 70.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
60H 24/0000Z 21.2N 69.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 24/1200Z 22.8N 68.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 25/1200Z 24.4N 65.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 26/1200Z 26.4N 63.7W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Franklin Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
200 PM EDT Mon Aug 21 2023

...NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INVESTIGATING FRANKLIN...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 70.1W
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM S OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 4 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Franklin Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
500 PM EDT Mon Aug 21 2023

...FRANKLIN MEANDERING TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA...
...HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI
BEGINNING TOMORROW...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 70.1W
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM S OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

Tropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
500 PM EDT Mon Aug 21 2023

Franklin is not an especially well-organized tropical cyclone this
afternoon. The NOAA reconnaissance mission has been sampling the
storm for a large part of the afternoon, and found a center
to the south of where the position was estimated earlier today. In
addition, the winds on the southwest side of the circulation are
more diffuse, and overall the circulation is a bit more elongated
than what the plane found yesterday at this time. Peak 850-mb flight
level winds were at 48 kt just to the northwest of the circulation,
which supports an intensity between 40-45 kt after using a standard
reduction. The initial intensity will remain at 45 kt for this
advisory, which is also in between the higher TAFB and lower SAB
intensity estimates.

The tropical storm has been meandering today, and my best guess at
an initial motion is a drift south of due west at 265/4 kt. Given
the current elongated nature of the surface circulation, the short-
term track forecast is tricky, ranging from the GFS on the east side
of the guidance envelope that has a center reformation to the
northeast, and the CMC and ECMWF which are on the western side of
the guidance envelope. The steering currents are also poorly defined
currently due to a large mid-oceanic trough in the western Atlantic
disrupting the flow pattern. Mid-level ridging eventually builds in
to the east of Franklin, which should ultimately induce a northward
motion by 24-36 h, and then northeastward between 48-96 h, as a
mid-latitude trough reinforces the weakness to the north of the
storm. The track guidance has slowed down again compared to the
previous cycle, prolonging the time the system will remain over the
Caribbean Sea before it moves over Hispaniola. The NHC track
forecast is once again slower than the previous cycle and has also
been nudged a touch westward compared to the previous one, but is
now a bit east of the simple and corrected consensus aids.

Given Franklin's current structure, I am somewhat skeptical there
will be a lot of meaningful near-term intensification, especially
while moderate vertical wind shear continues to disrupt the
convective structure. However, both the GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS
guidance indicate that the shear will briefly drop under 10 kt in
about 24 hours, and when combined with warm 29 C sea-surface
temperatures, it still seems prudent to show some intensification
before Franklin moves inland over Hispaniola. Significant land
interaction over the higher terrain will then lead to weakening,
which could be underdone here given the current track over some of
the most mountainous terrain. After Franklin emerges into the
western Atlantic, another round of southwesterly shear may slow the
rate of reintensification, and the latest NHC intensity forecast is
a bit more subdued than the previous one, once again electing to
follow the HCCA consensus aid. Given the complex intensity factors
mentioned above, this is a low confidence forecast.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall from Franklin is expected across portions of
Puerto Rico and Hispaniola through the middle of the week. The heavy
rainfall may produce areas of flash and urban flooding as well as
river rises and mudslides. Across Hispaniola, significant and
potentially life-threatening flash flooding is possible Tuesday into
Wednesday.

2. Franklin is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to
portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti beginning on Tuesday
where Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 14.3N 70.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 14.3N 70.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 15.3N 71.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 23/0600Z 17.2N 71.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 23/1800Z 19.1N 70.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
60H 24/0600Z 20.6N 70.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 24/1800Z 22.2N 68.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 25/1800Z 23.6N 66.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 26/1800Z 25.6N 65.5W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin

[cycloneye]

Stationary.

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Franklin Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
800 PM EDT Mon Aug 21 2023

...NOAA AIRCRAFT FINDS FRANKLIN STATIONARY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 70.1W
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM S OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Franklin Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
1100 PM EDT Mon Aug 21 2023

...FRANKLIN MOVING SLOWLY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 70.2W
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM S OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

Tropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
1100 PM EDT Mon Aug 21 2023

Franklin is not a well-organized tropical cyclone at this time. A
NOAA reconnaissance aircraft was in the system earlier this evening
and found an elongated low-level circulation, with possible
multiple surface centers. Franklin is also fairly asymmetric on
satellite imagery, with convection only on the east side of the
storm, near the mid-level center. The initial intensity will
remain at 45 kt for this advisory, which is in between the higher
TAFB and lower SAB intensity estimates. A NOAA G-IV mission should
hopefully provide more in-situ data overnight.

The tropical storm has been meandering in the eastern Caribbean for
much of the day. There is the potential that the center may try to
reform to the northeast, near a new burst of convection and the
mid-level center, but this is an uncertain evolution. Eventually,
mid-level ridging will build to the east of Franklin, which should
allow the system to move more northward in the next 36 hours, and
then northeastward between 48-96 h. The NHC track forecast is
shifted slightly to the right in the short term, and it lies a
little east of the consensus aids given the potential reformation of
the center to the northeast.

Franklin is currently in an environment of moderate vertical wind
shear, which is disrupting the cyclone's organization. SHIPS
guidance shows that the shear will slightly decrease over the next
12-24 hours, which will allow for some intensification before it
reaches Hispaniola. After land interaction over Hispaniola, there
will be some weakening due to the mountainous terrain. After
Franklin emerges north of the island in the western Atlantic, the
forecast calls for some slight strengthening as it moves northeast,
then northward. The intensity forecast is fairly low confidence
given all the different environmental factors and land interaction,
but lies near the corrected consensus aids.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall from Franklin is expected across portions of
Puerto Rico and Hispaniola through the middle of the week. The heavy
rainfall may produce areas of flash and urban flooding as well as
river rises and mudslides. Across Hispaniola, significant and
potentially life-threatening flash flooding is possible Tuesday into
Wednesday.

2. Franklin is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to
portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti beginning on Tuesday
where Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0300Z 14.5N 70.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 14.9N 70.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 16.3N 70.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 23/1200Z 18.1N 70.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 24/0000Z 20.1N 70.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 24/1200Z 21.6N 69.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 25/0000Z 22.6N 67.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 26/0000Z 23.7N 65.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 27/0000Z 25.9N 65.8W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Blake

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Franklin Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
200 AM EDT Tue Aug 22 2023

...POORLY-ORGANIZED FRANKLIN DRIFTING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 70.4W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM S OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 4 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

Tropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
500 AM EDT Tue Aug 22 2023

Although deep convection has increased overnight in areal extent
with frigid cloud top temperatures of -84 Celsius, Franklin remains
a somewhat disorganized tropical cyclone. Unfortunately, neither
the METOP-B and C scatterometer passes (both misses) or microwave
data were helpful in determining with confidence the center of
circulation. Best estimate is near the new deep convective bursts
near the northwest edge of the convective overcast. The initial
intensity is held at 45 kt for this advisory and is supported by
the TAFB and SAB satellite intensity estimates, and a blend of the
latest UW-CIMSS objective techniques.

The deep-layer flow southeast of a mid-Atlantic trough to the
northwest of Franklin is producing moderate southwesterly vertical
wind shear over the cyclone. Statistical-dynamical ECMWF and GFS
SHIPS guidance indicate that Franklin will remain in a harsh shear
environment for next several days, and interaction with the higher
mountainous elevations as it traverses Hispaniola should further
disrupt the storm's circulation. By the weekend, however, the
global models are in good agreement that the upper wind pattern
will become more conducive for strengthening and the official
forecast shows Franklin become a hurricane over the southwest
Atlantic by day 4.

The initial motion is estimated to be an uncertain northwestward
drift at 325/3 kt. Intermittent deep bursts of convection due to a
moderate deep-layer wind shear environment can induce surface
center reformation, particularly where the coldest cloud top
temperatures and the mid-level circulation center resides. Franklin
should remain in a weak synoptic steering current due to the
previously mentioned high amplitude mid-atlantic trough in the
western Atlantic for the next 12 hours or so. A subtropical high
eventually builds in to the east of Franklin, which should
induce a northward motion, and then a northeastward track after the
48 hour period. Toward the end of the forecast period, Franklin is
expected to turn generally northward as a mid-latitude shortwave
pulse moves off of the eastern seaboard on Sunday and strengthens
the weakness over the western Atlantic. The forecast track lies
between the TVCA simple multi-model consensus the the HFIP corrected
consensus aid, and is slightly faster (along-track spread) than the
previous advisory between the 48 and 72 hour periods.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall from Franklin is expected across portions of
Puerto Rico and Hispaniola into Thursday. The heavy rainfall may
produce areas of flash and urban flooding as well as river rises and
mudslides. Across Hispaniola, significant and potentially
life-threatening flash flooding is possible today into Wednesday.

2. Franklin is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to
portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti beginning today
where Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0900Z 14.8N 70.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 15.7N 70.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 23/0600Z 17.3N 70.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 23/1800Z 19.3N 69.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...ALONG COAST
48H 24/0600Z 21.6N 68.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 24/1800Z 22.7N 67.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 25/0600Z 23.2N 66.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 26/0600Z 23.6N 64.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 27/0600Z 26.3N 64.6W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts/Pasch

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Franklin Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
800 AM EDT Tue Aug 22 2023

...POORLY ORGANIZED FRANKLIN DRIFTING WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 70.7W
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM S OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...5 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Franklin Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
1100 AM EDT Tue Aug 22 2023

...SIGNIFICANT AND POTENTIALLY LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING
POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA THROUGH WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 71.1W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SSW OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

Tropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
1100 AM EDT Tue Aug 22 2023

It is unclear this morning if Franklin still has a well-defined
center of circulation. Visible satellite images suggest that broad
low-level turning is occurring well to the west of the bulk of
Franklin's deep convection, and there is no clear evidence that a
center exists near, or that a new center if re-forming beneath, the
convection. It appears that scatterometer will miss Franklin and
be of no help in assessing the wind field, but a NOAA Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later this
afternoon. For now, the initial intensity is held at 45 kt, which
is right in the middle of the various subjective and objective
satellite estimates.

If Franklin does still have a center, it is assumed to have jumped
or re-formed a bit to the west where there is new convection. This
position gives the storm an overall motion over the past 12 hours
toward the northwest (325 degrees) at 6 kt. Franklin is positioned
within the southern extent of a large mid-level trough, which
includes a mid-/upper-level low centered south of Bermuda. While
the steering flow is weak, this should cause Franklin to move slowly
northward and then northeastward for the next 4 days or so. By day
5, a new shortwave trough is likely to develop over New England,
with ridging strengthening over the central Atlantic, and Franklin
is forecast to turn back toward the north at that time. Largely
because of the adjustment in the initial position, all of the track
guidance has shifted westward on this cycle. The NHC track
forecast has also been moved westward, although it is on the
eastern side of the guidance envelope and fairly close to the
typically-reliable HCCA consensus aid. That said, there is
greater-than-usual uncertainty in Franklin's forecast track given
potential re-formations of the center.

Moderate-to-strong westerly shear is expected to continue over
Franklin for the next 4 days or so. In addition, the system is
forecast to move over the rugged terrain of Hispaniola within the
next 24-36 hours. As a result, little change in strength is
anticipated before Franklin reaches Hispaniola, and some weakening
is likely while it is crossing the island. Some intensification
is then noted in the 3-5 day period when environmental conditions
begin to become a little more conducive for strengthening. The NHC
intensity forecast is near the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids for
much of the 5-day forecast period.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall from Franklin is expected across portions of
Puerto Rico and Hispaniola into Thursday. The heavy rainfall may
produce areas of flash and urban flooding as well as river rises and
mudslides. Across Hispaniola, significant and potentially
life-threatening flash flooding is possible Tuesday into Wednesday.

2. Franklin is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to
portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti, where Tropical Storm
Warnings are in effect, beginning later today and continuing through
Wednesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1500Z 15.5N 71.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 16.5N 71.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 18.3N 70.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...S COAST OF DOM REPUB
36H 24/0000Z 20.4N 70.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 24/1200Z 22.1N 69.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 25/0000Z 22.9N 68.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 25/1200Z 23.3N 67.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 26/1200Z 24.2N 66.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 27/1200Z 27.1N 67.1W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Franklin Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
200 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2023

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING FRANKLIN...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 71.4W
ABOUT 230 MI...375 KM SSW OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Dominican Republic has upgraded the Tropical
Storm Watch to a Tropical Storm Warning for the entire northern and
eastern coast from the Haiti border eastward and southward to Isla
Saona.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Franklin Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
500 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2023

...FRANKLIN POISED TO BRING FLOODING RAINS TO HISPANIOLA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 71.4W
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SSW OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

Tropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
500 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2023

Franklin is not a healthy tropical cyclone--and there is still some
question if it even is a tropical cyclone. A NOAA Hurricane
Hunter aircraft investigating the system found a broad low-level
cyclonic wind field exposed to the west of the deep convection, but
this feature is well to the west of where we would have expected the
center to be. At the same time, developing deep convection with
some mid-level turning is noted about 90 n mi to the east, which
would more closely follow persistence from previous forecasts.
Either way, Franklin is not well organized, and for now the initial
position is held closer to the convection in case a new center
re-forms in that area. In fact, a dropsonde recently released by
the NOAA crew near the convection measured a surface pressure
of 1003 mb with winds of 32 kt, giving additional credence that a
new center could be forming. The crew also reported that the SFMR
winds were running too high, and the highest 850-mb flight-level
wind was 41 kt, suggesting that Franklin's initial intensity is
probably down to about 35 kt.

The smoothed 12-hour motion remains northwestward (320 degrees) at
6 kt. The track model guidance continues to insist that Franklin
will move slowly northward and then northeastward during the next 3
days or so, toward broad troughing located over the western
Atlantic. This track should take Franklin northward across
Hispaniola during the next 12-36 hours, with the system then
turning northeastward over the western Atlantic. By days 4 and 5,
a shortwave trough is expected to amplify near the northeastern
U.S. while a stronger mid-level ridge develops over the central
Atlantic, likely causing Franklin to turn back to the north by the
end of the forecast period. Despite the possibility of center
re-formations, which could cause Franklin's track to jump around,
the model guidance is in good agreement on this general forecast
scenario, even if all the details are not yet ironed out.

The new intensity forecast probably has the biggest change from the
previous advisory, at least in the short term. Little change in
strength is expected during the next 48 hours or so due to
Franklin's current disheveled state and its expected crossing of the
high terrain of Hispaniola on Wednesday. Once Franklin moves over
the western Atlantic waters, a more diffluent upper-level
environment could foster some intensification, and the NHC forecast
continues to show the system becoming a hurricane by the end of the
5-day forecast period. This forecast remains close to the HCCA and
IVCN consensus aids.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall from Franklin is expected across portions of
Hispaniola and Puerto Rico into Thursday. The heavy rainfall may
produce areas of flash and urban flooding as well as river rises and
mudslides. Across Hispaniola, significant and potentially
life-threatening flash flooding is possible Tuesday into Wednesday.

2. Franklin is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to
portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti, where Tropical Storm
Warnings are in effect, beginning later tonight and continuing
through Wednesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/2100Z 15.8N 71.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 17.0N 71.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 19.1N 70.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER HISPANIOLA
36H 24/0600Z 20.9N 70.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 24/1800Z 22.0N 69.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 25/0600Z 22.5N 68.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 25/1800Z 22.9N 67.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 26/1800Z 24.3N 66.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 27/1800Z 27.6N 67.7W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Franklin Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
800 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2023

...LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING POSSIBLE ON HISPANIOLA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 71.4W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSW OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Franklin Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
1100 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2023

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIALLY LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING
LIKELY ON HISPANIOLA THROUGH WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 71.4W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SW OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
1100 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2023

The satellite presentation of Franklin has improved since the last
advisory. Recent Proxy Vis imagery suggest that the low-level
circulation has become better defined, although there is still some
question exactly where the center is. The overall cloud pattern
suggests the low-level center is closer to a recent burst of deep
convection, closer to the mid-level circulation found by the last
NOAA reconnaissance mission. A blend of subjective and objective
satellite estimates remain near 35 kt for this advisory, which is
in agreement with what NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft found
earlier. Therefore, the intensity will remain 35 kt for this
advisory.

The system looks to have finally started a northward motion towards
the island of Hispaniola, moving at 8 kt. The track guidance
continues to be in fairly good agreement with a northward motion
through tomorrow and then a northeastward course near the end of
the work week due to broad troughing located over the western
Atlantic. By days 4 and 5, a stronger mid-level ridge develops over
the central Atlantic, with Franklin expected to turn back to the
north by the end of the forecast period. Given the uncertainty in
the center position, the current NHC forecast track lies near the
previous forecast, which is also near the HCCA corrected consensus
aid.

The new intensity forecast is fairly similar to the previous
advisory. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day
or so due to land interaction with Hispaniola and moderate wind
shear. Gradual strengthening is anticipated after Franklin emerges
north of Hispaniola due to warm waters but still notable shear.
For days 4 and 5, when Franklin is still over the very warm western
Atlantic waters, wind shear should decrease slightly, and
strengthening is forecast, with the system becoming a hurricane by
the end of the period. The NHC intensity forecast after day 3 is
slightly higher than the previous advisory, but lower than the
stronger HCCA and IVCN consensus aids.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall from Franklin is expected across much of
Hispaniola into Thursday. The heavy rainfall is expected to produce
significant and potentially life-threatening flash and urban
flooding as well as mudslides, particularly over central Hispaniola
through Wednesday.

2. Franklin is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to
portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti, where Tropical Storm
Warnings are in effect, beginning later tonight and continuing
through Wednesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0300Z 16.4N 71.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 17.6N 71.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 20.0N 70.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 24/1200Z 21.5N 69.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 25/0000Z 22.3N 68.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 25/1200Z 22.6N 67.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 26/0000Z 23.1N 67.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 27/0000Z 24.9N 66.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 28/0000Z 28.7N 68.0W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Blake

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Franklin Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
500 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2023

...FRANKLIN NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC..
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIALLY LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING
LIKELY OVER HISPANIOLA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 71.3W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SW OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Warning
for the Turks and Caicos Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic entire south coast from Haiti border eastward
to Cabo Engano
* Dominican Republic entire north coast from Haiti border eastward
to Cabo Engano
* Haiti entire south coast from Anse d'Hainault eastward to the
Dominican Republic border
* Turks and Caicos Islands

Tropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
500 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2023

Franklin's cloud pattern continues to become gradually better
organized with a large convective band evident over the eastern
semicircle of the circulation. There is still some westerly shear
over the system, and most of the deep convection is confined to the
northeast and southeast quadrants of the storm. Franklin appears to
be producing high-level anticyclonic outflow which is being undercut
by westerlies just below the outflow level. Subjective Dvorak
intensity estimates range from 35 to 45 kt, and most of the
objective estimates are in this range as well. A scatterometer
overpass from several hours ago indicated maximum winds near 40 kt.
The current intensity is set at 45 kt.

Although the center remains difficult to locate, satellite center
fixes from TAFB and SAB and continuity suggest a motion of about
010/9 kt. Franklin is moving through a weakness in the mid-level
subtropical ridge. During the next couple of days, the cyclone is
forecast to turn toward the east-northeast and move along the
northwestern side of a mid-level anticyclone, and south of a
higher-latitude trough. In 3 to 5 days, as the trough lifts out and
a mid-level ridge to the west and northwest of Franklin builds
slightly, the system is expected to turn northward and
north-northwestward. The official track forecast is again close to
the HCCA consensus and very similar to the previous advisory's
prediction.

Land interaction with the mountains of Hispaniola today are likely
to disrupt Franklin's circulation, and the amount of weakening
shown by the NHC short-term intensity forecast may be conservative.
After the cyclone moves over the Atlantic, strengthening is
anticipated. However, the global models show significant shear
associated with an upper-level cyclone over the southwestern
Atlantic near 70W in 3-5 days, and this is also indicated in the
SHIPS guidance. Because of this, the official intensity forecast
is near the low end of the model guidance and similar to the LGEM
prediction. This is just slightly higher than the previous
official forecast.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall from Franklin is expected across much of
Hispaniola into Thursday. The heavy rainfall is expected to produce
significant and potentially life-threatening flash and urban
flooding as well as mudslides, particularly over central Hispaniola
today.

2. Franklin is bringing tropical storm conditions to portions of the
Dominican Republic and Haiti, where Tropical Storm Warnings are in
effect, and tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within
the Turks and Caicos Islands later today or tonight.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0900Z 17.4N 71.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 19.0N 71.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
24H 24/0600Z 21.1N 70.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 24/1800Z 22.2N 69.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 25/0600Z 22.7N 68.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 25/1800Z 23.0N 67.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 26/0600Z 23.3N 66.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 27/0600Z 25.8N 66.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 28/0600Z 29.5N 68.0W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Franklin Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
800 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2023

...FRANKLIN MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR BARAHONA...
...VERY HEAVY RAINS OCCURRING OVER HISPANIOLA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 71.2W
ABOUT 25 MI...35 KM SSW OF BARAHONA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM WSW OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Franklin Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
1100 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2023

...FRANKLIN'S CENTER MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
...FLOODING RAINS DRENCHING HISPANIOLA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.9N 70.9W
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM SSW OF PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM S OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.


Tropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
1100 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2023

Franklin's center appears to have made landfall a little to the
south of Barahona, Dominican Republic, shortly before 1200 UTC, and
it is now moving northward over the mountainous terrain of the
country. Heavy rains have likely overspread much of Hispaniola,
although the deepest convection is occurring along the south-central
coast of the island. It is assumed that the maximum winds have
decreased now that the center is over land, and the initial
intensity is set at 35 kt, which is close to the latest UW-CIMSS
AiDT and D-PRINT estimates.

Franklin's speed has picked up a bit, and it is moving toward the
north (005 degrees) at 11 kt. The storm continues to move
northward through a break in the subtropical ridge, but it is
expected to turn northeastward in the next 24-36 hours when it
becomes positioned near the southern extent of a large mid-latitude
trough over the western Atlantic. Then, in about 3 days, the
central Atlantic ridge is expected to strengthen and block
Franklin's eastward progress, forcing the storm to turn toward the
north by days 4 and 5. The track guidance is tightly clustered
during the first 60-72 hours of the forecast, and the NHC track
forecast is very close to the previous prediction and the various
consensus aids. After 72 hours, the guidance suggests that
the northward turn may be a little delayed. In response, the NHC
track has been shifted a bit to the east of the previous forecast at
days 4 and 5.

Franklin will still be affected by moderate-to-strong
west-southwesterly shear when it moves off the coast of Hispaniola
later today, so it will likely take some time for the circulation
to reorganize itself after moving over the rugged terrain.
Otherwise, environmental conditions should support gradual
strengthening starting in about 24 hours. In about 3 days,
a developing upper-level low near the Bahamas is likely to provide
a more favorable diffluent environment aloft over Franklin,
potentially fostering more significant strengthening. Although
there is a fairly wide range of intensity possibilities in the
deterministic and ensemble intensity guidance on days 3-5, the
overall guidance envelope has been trending higher. The NHC
intensity forecast follows that tendency and is higher than the
previous forecast on days 4 and 5.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall from Franklin is expected across much of
Hispaniola into Thursday, which is expected to produce significant
and potentially life-threatening flash and urban flooding as well as
mudslides, particularly over central Hispaniola.

2. Franklin is bringing tropical storm conditions to portions of the
Dominican Republic and Haiti, where Tropical Storm Warnings are in
effect, and tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within
the Turks and Caicos Islands later today or tonight.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 18.9N 70.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER DOMINICAN REPUB.
12H 24/0000Z 20.5N 70.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
24H 24/1200Z 22.1N 69.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 22.8N 68.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 23.1N 67.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 26/0000Z 23.4N 66.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 26/1200Z 24.3N 65.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 27/1200Z 27.3N 66.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 28/1200Z 31.1N 67.6W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Franklin Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
200 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2023

...FRANKLIN OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...
...HEAVY RAIN AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING OCCURRING OVER
HISPANIOLA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 70.7W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM S OF PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM S OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Franklin Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
500 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2023

...FRANKLIN EMERGING OFF THE NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...
...HEAVY RAIN AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING CONTINUING OVER
HISPANIOLA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.8N 70.6W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM E OF PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SSE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for the south
coast of the Dominican Republic from the Haiti border eastward to
Punta Palenque.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic south coast from Punta Palenque eastward
to Cabo Engano
* Dominican Republic entire north coast from Haiti border eastward
to Cabo Engano
* Turks and Caicos Islands



Tropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
500 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2023

Franklin is in the process of emerging off the northern coast of the
Dominican Republic, where surface observations recently showed a
subtle wind shift in the past couple of hours. Earlier, a NOAA
reconnaissance mission flew a counterclockwise route around the
eastern portion of Hispaniola, finding a peak 700-mb wind of 51 kt
at about the time of the prior advisory. An ASCAT-B pass at around
the same time also showed a decent swath of tropical-storm-force
winds along the southern coast of the Dominican Republic. While
Franklin has been inland for some time now, given the lack of much
other data, its winds will remain 35 kt for this advisory. An
Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance mission is soon set to take off
and should provide more data this evening.

Franklin's motion is now estimated to be north-northeastward at
015/11 kt. A large weakness in the flow north of Franklin should
allow the storm to be steered by mid-level ridging nosing back into
the eastern Caribbean in the short-term, leading to a rather
unusual east-northeastward motion over the next 24-48 hours. Then,
after the remnants of Emily move out of the way, additional ridging
should build back east of Franklin, blocking it from an immediate
track out to sea. The track guidance all show the cyclone bending
back northward for the remainder of the forecast period. While the
track guidance generally agree on this evolution, the details on
when and how sharply this turn is remain to be ironed out.
Ultimately, the consensus aids have changed little this afternoon,
even if the spread in the ensemble guidance is larger than normal,
and the NHC track is very similar to the prior one throughout the
forecast period.

The biggest hindrance limiting Franklin's initial prospects for
reintensification is continued moderate westerly vertical wind shear
between 15-25 kt for the next 24-48 hours. However, sea-surface
temperatures will be very warm along the forecast track, so this
shear should not be enough to preclude slow intensification during
that time span. Afterwards, an upper-level trough is expected to
cutoff to the southwest of Franklin as the cyclone begins to pivot
northward, and the storm should find itself in a more favorable
upper-level environment. Thus, a faster intensification rate is
anticipated between 72-96 h and Franklin is still expected to become
a significant hurricane by the end of the forecast period. The
intensity forecast is in good agreement with the consensus aids, but
remains lower than some of the more aggressive hurricane-regional
models (HWRF, HAFS-A/B).

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall from Franklin is expected across much of
Hispaniola into Thursday, which is expected to produce significant
and potentially life-threatening flash and urban flooding as well
as mudslides, particularly over the central Dominican Republic.

2. Franklin is bringing tropical storm conditions to portions of the
Dominican Republic, where Tropical Storm Warnings remain in effect,
and tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within the Turks
and Caicos Islands tonight.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 19.8N 70.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...ON THE COAST
12H 24/0600Z 21.4N 70.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 22.5N 68.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 23.0N 67.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 23.3N 66.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 26/0600Z 23.8N 65.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 24.6N 65.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 27/1800Z 28.0N 67.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 28/1800Z 31.6N 67.4W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Franklin Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
800 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2023

...FRANKLIN NOW NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BUT THE THREAT OF
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 70.5W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM NNE OF PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SSE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Franklin Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
1100 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2023

...FRANKLIN STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...
...FLASH FLOODING THREAT CONTINUES OVERNIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.2N 70.4W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM ESE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.


Tropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023
1100 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2023

Franklin is showing signs of intensification on the latest satellite
imagery with increasing deep convection near and southeast of the
center. This trend is confirmed by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft mission that has been flying through the storm
during the past few hours with maximum flight-level winds of 46 kt,
believable SFMR winds of at least 40 kt, and the central pressure
falling to 1002 mb. The initial wind speed is set to 40 kt as a
blend of the data.

The storm continues heading north-northeastward or 015/11 kt,
steered by a ridge over the eastern Caribbean. Franklin should move
around the northern periphery of the ridge, turning
east-northeastward tomorrow and slowing down by Friday. As the
remnants of Emily exit the central Atlantic, mid-level ridging
should build back northeast of Franklin, turning the cyclone
north-northwestward and northward this weekend. For such an unusual
August track, the model guidance is in reasonably good agreement,
and little change was made to the last NHC track forecast.

Moderate westerly shear is forecast to limit the strengthening rate
of Franklin during the next couple of days, though very warm waters
should allow for gradual intensification. In 2 or 3 days, an
upper-level trough should cutoff to the southwest of Franklin,
creating a lower shear and very diffluent flow pattern near the
storm. This environmental change will likely promote significant
strengthening by late this weekend, and Franklin is forecast to
become a powerful hurricane southwest of Bermuda. The new intensity
forecast is raised from the previous one at most time periods, and
the stronger regional hurricane models showing major hurricane
strength at long range are certainly reasonable possibilities.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Localized heavy rainfall from the outer bands of Franklin could
cause further isolated flash flooding through Thursday in vulnerable
areas of the Dominican Republic that already received torrential
rainfall.

2. Franklin is expected to continue to bring tropical storm
conditions to portions of the Dominican Republic and the Turks and
Caicos Islands overnight.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0300Z 21.2N 70.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 24/1200Z 22.3N 69.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 25/0000Z 23.0N 68.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 25/1200Z 23.3N 66.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 26/0000Z 23.7N 65.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 26/1200Z 24.4N 65.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 27/0000Z 25.8N 65.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 28/0000Z 29.2N 67.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 29/0000Z 33.0N 67.4W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake