ATL: LEE - Models

[NotSparta]

12Z GFS slower to develop so far.

Not only does the GFS have very little with this so far, the CMC is similar. Plus the last few ICONs have been weaker than recent days. Also, the 0Z UK had no TC. Trend?

Delayed development… we know what follows

Yes... a bust

[aspen]

HAFS-A and B runs are up, both with delayed development (likely due to all the factors USTropics detailed above). HAFS-A develops between 45-50W, while HAFS-B is faster and gets a TC between 40-45W.

[cycloneye]

HAFS-A





HAFS-B

[SFLcane]

Delayed development increased threat.

[LarryWx]

12Z Euro is strongest of the 12Z models as of 120 and pretty close to earlier runs.

[jlauderdal]

Delayed development increased threat.

Getting past 70 looking more likely, roh roh

[Brandon8181]

Not buying any runs that don’t show development. Where it goes is a different story, but this thing is nearly classifiable already.

Yes, and it looks extremely healthy this early on. Very nice form, roation, storm activity. Considering it is just a "wave" it looks really suspect. This clearly looks primed and ready to go. I don't buy into the recent runs of it not developing or extremely slow development.

[NotSparta]

The Euro sees how weak the GFS has gotten so it gets stronger in response. I swear it's like the two are aware of each other sometimes

[Brandon8181]

The Euro sees how weak the GFS has gotten so it gets stronger in response. I swear it's like the two are aware of each other sometimes

Its funny you say that. Obviously in some cases models agree; however, so often even with spring and winter weather they can be so incredibly far apart. Atleast there is more than 2 models

[WalterWhite]

The Euro sees how weak the GFS has gotten so it gets stronger in response. I swear it's like the two are aware of each other sometimes

I *believe* that this year, the ECMWF has been much better with genesis and intensity than the GFS, but I could be wrong.

[Teban54]

Despite a stronger start, 12z Euro has become weaker at 192 hrs than 0z and further NE.

[N2FSU]

12z Euro


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[mantis83]

euro is a non-threat, early recurve this run

[aspen]

The HAFS-A/B are further south than most of the global runs, with 95L being at 14-15N by Thursday afternoon. They also show a pretty good UL environment once it passes 50W. Kinda getting Maria vibes from their solutions. If they verify, that’d be a prime setup for 95L/Lee to bomb out en route to the Lesser Antilles.

[Woofde]

euro is a non-threat, early recurve this run

That's not really true. The Euro model only goes out 10 days. On the tenth day it shows the storm in a position that is likely to recurve, but we have seen many storms in that same position not recurve. Florence 2018 is just one example.

[LarryWx]

The 12Z EPS at 228 is similar to the 0Z EPS at 240 with <20% of members threatening the NE Caribbean, Bahamas, or CONUS. Of those that do, two appear to be cat 4-5 with a 923 and a 933 at 240 both moving WNW near/toward the Bahamas.
Bermuda is still threatened by a good # and there are once again many Hs.

[Blown Away]

Just like with Idalia, the Euro is E and GFS is W? Both going against their bias? Is there something new with these models?

[AutoPenalti]

EPS shifting north with some ensembles.

GFS seems to stick with a continued WNW trend towards the Bahamas.

[SFLcane]

EPS shifting north with some ensembles.

GFS seems to stick with a continued WNW trend towards the Bahamas.

I wouldn’t to much stock on the eps it certainly has had an over amped bias my point is the longer this takes to strengthen in my opinion so will the threat grow to the islands and Conus.

[Cachondo23]

The HAFS-A/B are further south than most of the global runs, with 95L being at 14-15N by Thursday afternoon. They also show a pretty good UL environment once it passes 50W. Kinda getting Maria vibes from their solutions. If they verify, that’d be a prime setup for 95L/Lee to bomb out en route to the Lesser Antilles.

Maria started more in the central atlantic and nearing the LA before bombing out, 95L is south of Cabo Verde right now with good signs. But I get your point.