ATL: LEE - Models

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Very unimpressive winds from both the CMC, and especially the GFS by the time the remnants of Lee make their way onshore in 6 or so days.

I'll continue keep tabs on this one, but not particularly concerned about Lee at this point and time as an Atlantic Canadian.

Very thankful this won't be another Fiona situation, though if it curves W earlier as some models are showing it could give some solid gusts to New England.

I wouldn't write off Lee just yet even Arthur (2014) was very damaging for the area as a tropical storm, power was out for significant periods of time especially in the Yarmouth area and Western New Brunswick.

I don't think the main concern with Lee is going to be the wind anyways, it is likely going to be the storm surge which is the biggest problem. I would actually argue the worst case scenario for Lee at this point would be a model putting it slightly to the West of NS and leading it to landfall in Washington County, ME or the Fundy Isles in New Brunswick. This scenario could push a major storm surge into the Bay of Fundy which could breach the dykes that local officials have been panicking about at the Isthmus of Chignecto.

Indeed, our power grid has never fully recovered from Arthur. There were rural areas in the interior that went without power for one to two weeks. I still vividly recall the lineups in Saint Stephen and Saint Andrews to get water and food before it spoiled from the grocery stores as well as fuel for the generators from the gas stations - the ones that had power during the first few days.

Much of the grid in rural areas had to be extensively rebuilt.

summaries

http://hybridstorm-weatherblog.blogspot.com/2014_07_05_archive.html

power grid

http://hybridstorm-weatherblog.blogspot.com/2014_07_11_archive.html

http://hybridstorm-weatherblog.blogspot.com/2014_07_13_archive.html

[LarryWx]

It is premature imo to go with no NE US landfall with high confidence considering the 12Z GEFS among other things. I was last at 10% chance for NE landfall after having been as high as 20% and I'm considering raising it back some shortly.

Larry, do you have an update on the 12z UKMET? Thank you!

The 12Z UK sped up considerably and is just off C NS at 168 hours at 970 mb. It's SLP peak of 944 mb isn't til 8PM EDT on Thu (9/14):

HURRICANE LEE ANALYSED POSITION : 21.6N 60.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132023

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 10.09.2023 0 21.6N 60.8W 954 79
0000UTC 11.09.2023 12 22.2N 61.9W 961 74
1200UTC 11.09.2023 24 23.1N 63.5W 964 74
0000UTC 12.09.2023 36 23.6N 64.9W 957 76
1200UTC 12.09.2023 48 23.9N 66.3W 952 75
0000UTC 13.09.2023 60 24.5N 67.2W 951 75
1200UTC 13.09.2023 72 25.3N 67.9W 952 71
0000UTC 14.09.2023 84 26.4N 68.2W 949 78
1200UTC 14.09.2023 96 28.0N 68.4W 949 77
0000UTC 15.09.2023 108 29.8N 68.3W 944 76
1200UTC 15.09.2023 120 32.0N 67.9W 948 77
0000UTC 16.09.2023 132 35.0N 66.8W 950 72
1200UTC 16.09.2023 144 38.5N 66.1W 956 73
0000UTC 17.09.2023 156 41.4N 65.6W 959 53
1200UTC 17.09.2023 168 44.1N 63.8W 970 47

[Craters]

Very unimpressive winds from both the CMC, and especially the GFS by the time the remnants of Lee make their way onshore in 6 or so days.

I'll continue keep tabs on this one, but not particularly concerned about Lee at this point and time as an Atlantic Canadian.

Very thankful this won't be another Fiona situation, though if it curves W earlier as some models are showing it could give some solid gusts to New England.

I wouldn't write off Lee just yet even Arthur (2014) was very damaging for the area as a tropical storm, power was out for significant periods of time especially in the Yarmouth area and Western New Brunswick.

I don't think the main concern with Lee is going to be the wind anyways, it is likely going to be the storm surge which is the biggest problem. I would actually argue the worst case scenario for Lee at this point would be a model putting it slightly to the West of NS and leading it to landfall in Washington County, ME or the Fundy Isles in New Brunswick. This scenario could push a major storm surge into the Bay of Fundy which could breach the dykes that local officials have been panicking about at the Isthmus of Chignecto.

Indeed, our power grid has never fully recovered from Arthur. There were rural areas in the interior that went without power for one to two weeks. I still vividly recall the lineups in Saint Stephen and Saint Andrews to get water and food before it spoiled from the grocery stores as well as fuel for the generators from the gas stations - the ones that had power during the first few days.

Much of the grid in rural areas had to be extensively rebuilt.

summaries

http://hybridstorm-weatherblog.blogspot.com/2014_07_05_archive.html

power grid

http://hybridstorm-weatherblog.blogspot.com/2014_07_11_archive.html

http://hybridstorm-weatherblog.blogspot.com/2014_07_13_archive.html

How high were the sustained winds from Arthur? Did they last very long?

[Hurricane2022]

[PavelGaborik10]

I wouldn't write off Lee just yet even Arthur (2014) was very damaging for the area as a tropical storm, power was out for significant periods of time especially in the Yarmouth area and Western New Brunswick.

I don't think the main concern with Lee is going to be the wind anyways, it is likely going to be the storm surge which is the biggest problem. I would actually argue the worst case scenario for Lee at this point would be a model putting it slightly to the West of NS and leading it to landfall in Washington County, ME or the Fundy Isles in New Brunswick. This scenario could push a major storm surge into the Bay of Fundy which could breach the dykes that local officials have been panicking about at the Isthmus of Chignecto.

Indeed, our power grid has never fully recovered from Arthur. There were rural areas in the interior that went without power for one to two weeks. I still vividly recall the lineups in Saint Stephen and Saint Andrews to get water and food before it spoiled from the grocery stores as well as fuel for the generators from the gas stations - the ones that had power during the first few days.

Much of the grid in rural areas had to be extensively rebuilt.

summaries

http://hybridstorm-weatherblog.blogspot.com/2014_07_05_archive.html

power grid

http://hybridstorm-weatherblog.blogspot.com/2014_07_11_archive.html

http://hybridstorm-weatherblog.blogspot.com/2014_07_13_archive.html

How high were the sustained winds from Arthur? Did they last very long?

Unsure of sustained but the strongest gust I've come across was 138 KM/H at Greenwood.

It didn't have extreme peak winds, but due to its size and the development of a sting jet, it ended up giving a massive area some solid 110+ KM/H gusts.

[BobHarlem]

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1700956949838237736

[hohnywx]

HAFS-A and HAFS-B (replacements for HWRF and HMON) agreeing with the SNE threat

[Dsci4]

HAFS-A and HAFS-B (replacements for HWRF and HMON) agreeing with the SNE threat

https://imgur.com/H5DmYsp

And slower fwiw

[LarryWx]

After a drop on the 0Z/6Z runs, the 12Z GEFS clearly has the most US landfalls of any GEFS run yet, which had been 8 (18Z of yesterday). There are so many close together in ME that it is hard to count them! I'm estimating 13 US hits (42%) with ~8 in ME, 4 in MA, and 1 in NJ. I'd say a minimum of 12 (39%)(7 ME). I try not to double count. So, a MA landfall followed by ME counts as only a MA landfall for me.

Edit: it may be as many as 14 hits because ME may have as many as 9!

[Craters]

Indeed, our power grid has never fully recovered from Arthur. There were rural areas in the interior that went without power for one to two weeks. I still vividly recall the lineups in Saint Stephen and Saint Andrews to get water and food before it spoiled from the grocery stores as well as fuel for the generators from the gas stations - the ones that had power during the first few days.

Much of the grid in rural areas had to be extensively rebuilt.

How high were the sustained winds from Arthur? Did they last very long?

Unsure of sustained but the strongest gust I've come across was 138 KM/H at Greenwood.

It didn't have extreme peak winds, but due to its size and the development of a sting jet, it ended up giving a massive area some solid 110+ KM/H gusts.

Yup, that would probably do it for a lot of the power infrastructure here near Houston, too.

Thanks!

[ColdMiser123]

After a drop on the 0Z/6Z runs, the 12Z GEFS clearly has the most US landfalls of any GEFS run yet, which had been 8 (18Z of yesterday). There are so many close together in ME that it is hard to count them! I'm estimating 13 US hits (42%) with ~8 in ME, 4 in MA, and 1 in NJ. I'd say a minimum of 12 (39%)(7 ME). I try not to double count. So, a MA landfall followed by ME counts as only a MA landfall for me.

Edit: it may be as many as 14 hits because ME may have as many as 9!

I also count 11 EPS members (~20-25%) that make US landfall. So certainly not a majority, but significant enough to where New England should watch any additional trends. Also a noticeable uptick from the previous ensemble run.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Indeed, our power grid has never fully recovered from Arthur. There were rural areas in the interior that went without power for one to two weeks. I still vividly recall the lineups in Saint Stephen and Saint Andrews to get water and food before it spoiled from the grocery stores as well as fuel for the generators from the gas stations - the ones that had power during the first few days.

Much of the grid in rural areas had to be extensively rebuilt.

summaries

http://hybridstorm-weatherblog.blogspot.com/2014_07_05_archive.html

power grid

http://hybridstorm-weatherblog.blogspot.com/2014_07_11_archive.html

http://hybridstorm-weatherblog.blogspot.com/2014_07_13_archive.html

How high were the sustained winds from Arthur? Did they last very long?

Unsure of sustained but the strongest gust I've come across was 138 KM/H at Greenwood.

It didn't have extreme peak winds, but due to its size and the development of a sting jet, it ended up giving a massive area some solid 110+ KM/H gusts.

Yes, it was the sting jet that caused hurricane-force gusts all the way to Houlton, Maine which was located about 200 miles from the closest approach of the center (which passed near the New Brunswick city of Moncton). Arthur was unusual because the trough phasing gave him strong widespread winds on the west side of the circulation along with more traditional west side heavy rainfall an event nearly unheard of for transitioning hurricanes.

[LarryWx]

HAFS-A and HAFS-B (replacements for HWRF and HMON) agreeing with the SNE threat

https://imgur.com/H5DmYsp

How accurate are these HAFS models for track vs the main globals?

[LarryWx]

After a drop on the 0Z/6Z runs, the 12Z GEFS clearly has the most US landfalls of any GEFS run yet, which had been 8 (18Z of yesterday). There are so many close together in ME that it is hard to count them! I'm estimating 13 US hits (42%) with ~8 in ME, 4 in MA, and 1 in NJ. I'd say a minimum of 12 (39%)(7 ME). I try not to double count. So, a MA landfall followed by ME counts as only a MA landfall for me.

Edit: it may be as many as 14 hits because ME may have as many as 9!

I also count 11 EPS members (~20-25%) that make US landfall. So certainly not a majority, but significant enough to where New England should watch any additional trends. Also a noticeable uptick from the previous ensemble run.

Thank you. You must be getting them from a different source from WeatherNerds because the 12Z EPS is out to only hour 150 there. Do you or does anyone else know why considering that they normally would have been out to 240 1.5 hours ago?

[SouthernBreeze]

Heres a site for them -
https://www.easterlywave.com/typhoon/ensemble/

[Tekken_Guy]

What is the risk status for NJ?

[tolakram]

What is the risk status for NJ?

Not a good question, not sure what you are expecting here. The risk is not 0.

[Iceresistance]

The Upper-level recon is just as important as the lower-level missions. This has serious implications for 0z runs. (18z did not take the dropsondes into account despite the tweet)

 https://twitter.com/CloudsterWx/status/1700971643303059462

[LarryWx]

 EPS US landfalls:

9/10 12Z: 10 (20%): 6 ME, 3 MA, 1 RI

9/10 0Z: 3 (6%): 1 ME, 2 MA

9/9 12Z: 6 (12%) 9/17-19 (3 ME, 3 MA)
9/9 0Z: 3 (6%) 9/17 (3 ME)
9/8 12Z: 5 (10%) 9/15-18 (5 ME) 
9/8 0Z: 7 (14%) 9/15-17 (6 ME, 1 NY)
9/7 12Z: 12 (24%) 9/15-19 (7 ME, 3 MA, 1 NY, 1 NJ)
9/7 0Z: 10 (20%) 9/15-18 (5 ME, 5 MA)
9/6 12Z: 3 (6%) 9/15-18 (2 ME, 1 MA)
9/6 0Z: 5 (10%)
9/5 12Z: 2 (4%)
9/5 0Z: 4 (8%) 
9/4 12Z: 1 (2%) 
9/4 0Z: 2 (4%)

[hohnywx]

HAFS-A and HAFS-B (replacements for HWRF and HMON) agreeing with the SNE threat

https://imgur.com/H5DmYsp

How accurate are these HAFS models for track vs the main globals?

I don't know the definitive answer to that but I do know they did pretty well with Idalia. They only recently came into service.