ATL: LEE - Models

[ColdMiser123]

Farthest west the EPS has been as well. A sizable majority of solutions are US landfalls. There are also a significant number of tracks into states other than Maine.

I count ~6 on the 18Z EPS with a non-Maine US landfall though that's not as much as the 11 on the 6Z. One of them comes close to an apparently never on record NH landfall. Also, one of the ME landfalls goes into ME not too far above NH. In addition, one 18Z GEFS member may actually be a NH landfall. I need a magnifying glass lol.

There are tracks into Long Island, Rhode Island, & MA on the 18z EPS. Might even be a couple into New Hampshire.

 https://twitter.com/wxreboot/status/1701766393824510133

[BobHarlem]

18z eps ensembles

[LarryWx]

Farthest west the EPS has been as well. A sizable majority of solutions are US landfalls. There are also a significant number of tracks into states other than Maine.

I count ~6 on the 18Z EPS with a non-Maine US landfall though that's not as much as the 11 on the 6Z. One of them comes close to an apparently never on record NH landfall. Also, one of the ME landfalls goes into ME not too far above NH. In addition, one 18Z GEFS member may actually be a NH landfall. I need a magnifying glass lol.

There are tracks into Long Island, Rhode Island, & MA on the 18z EPS. Might even be a couple into New Hampshire.

https://twitter.com/wxreboot/status/1701766393824510133?t=ni94htOixqzb-52lHau2IA&s=19

I had accidentally looked at yesterday's 18Z EPS on Weathernerds when I thought the new one was already out. That's why I said only ~6 US landfalls not on ME! I just corrected it.

I count ~15 (30%) on the 18Z EPS with a non-Maine US landfall, which is even more than the ~11 on the 6Z!

I count ~15 (30%) that landfall in Canada either in S NS or NB. That leaves ~21 (42%) first hitting ME.

[BobHarlem]

0z GFS is a fair bit left/west of 18z into Bar Harbor Maine. Also quite a bit closer to cape cod than 18z. 0z Canadian shifted left too, to over Western Nova Scotia from Eastern.



The 0z GFS Ensembles also generally shifted west.

[LarryWx]

0Z UKMET shifted back E some to a landfall on SW NS 9/16 evening at 970 mb from 12Z's track through Bay of Fundy to NB:

HURRICANE LEE ANALYSED POSITION : 24.7N 66.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132023

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 13.09.2023 0 24.7N 66.6W 939 85
1200UTC 13.09.2023 12 25.6N 67.5W 950 77
0000UTC 14.09.2023 24 27.3N 67.8W 947 82
1200UTC 14.09.2023 36 29.2N 68.4W 945 82
0000UTC 15.09.2023 48 31.5N 68.2W 945 73
1200UTC 15.09.2023 60 34.0N 67.8W 950 62
0000UTC 16.09.2023 72 37.2N 66.8W 955 73
1200UTC 16.09.2023 84 40.7N 66.8W 958 57
0000UTC 17.09.2023 96 43.7N 65.9W 970 48
1200UTC 17.09.2023 108 46.9N 63.8W 985 41
0000UTC 18.09.2023 120 49.0N 58.1W 993 34
1200UTC 18.09.2023 132 53.0N 45.8W 993 37
0000UTC 19.09.2023 144 POST-TROPICAL

[LarryWx]

More 0Zs:
-Meteo-France big shift W from 12Z's Bay of Fundy/NB to 0Z's C ME
-ICON similar to last two runs into SW NS early 9/17 973 mb
-CMC 75 mile W shift to W NS at 988 mb early 9/17
-0Z JMA tracks just E of Cape Cod to landfall WC ME late 9/16 (slightly E of 12Z, which was on Cape Cod)
-0Z Euro landfall E ME at 102 hours very early 9/17 975 mb

[b0tzy29]

That high pressure over Canada clears out just a tad earlier then forecasted, Long Island and NYC better be ready. Guidance can still change and that nudge west around 66-72 hours on the 06z GFS can happen anywhere on the NE coast starting as far south as Long Island. Stay vigilant.

[mitchell]

GFS and Euro in pretty good agreement this morning on landfall location and intensity. I think thoughout this system's history, this is as close to model agreement I've seen between those two major models.

Timing has tightened up too, with the Euro now only 6 hours slower.

[LarryWx]

Some 12Z runs' landfalls:

-Arpege: NB very late 9/16 980 mb

-ICON: NB early 9/17 975 mb

-GFS: NB early 9/17 976 mb

-CMC: SW NS early 9/17 981 mb

-UKMET: SW NS late 9/16 966 mb

-JMA: Cape Cod 8PM 9/16 963 mb

-Euro: NB hour 90 early 9/17 974 mb

-KMA: E corner ME 5PM on 9/16 962 mb

[LarryWx]

Some 0Z run landfalls:

-Arpege: SW NS early 9/16 968 mb (faster and E shift vs 12Z's NB)

-ICON: NB early 9/17 981 mb (similar to 12Z)

-GFS: NB early 9/17 976 mb (similar to 12Z)

-CMC: SW NS late 9/16 980 mb (slight W shift vs 12Z)

-UKMET: SW NS late 9/16 970 mb (slight E shift  vs 12Z)

-JMA (inferior): C ME early 9/17 973 mb (NE shift vs 12Z, which crossed Cape Cod)

-Euro: NB early 9/17 976 mb (similar to 12Z)

-KMA: SW NS midday 9/16 ~960 mb (big E shift vs 12Z's E ME)

[LarryWx]

 -Out of twelve 0Z models including the 4 tropical models and excluding the NAM, the only one showing a US landfall is the lowly JMA. And the JMA shifted away from Cape Cod since 12Z. How far off does this 0Z JMA, even after its significant NE shift, appear to be? It is to the left of all 51 members of the last three EPS runs ending with today's 6Z run:



 -Recent EPS Runs' US Landfalls: going down

9/14 6Z: 6 (12%) 6 ME

9/14 0Z: 7 (14%) 7 ME

9/13 18Z: 10 (20%) 10 ME

9/13 12Z: 14 (28%) 13 ME, 1 MA

9/13 6Z: 35 (69%) 27 ME, 6 MA, 2 RI

9/12 18Z: 36 (71%) 21 ME, 9 MA, 3 RI, 3 NY (LI)

[Michele B]

18z eps ensembles
https://i.imgur.com/kPGNfqD.jpg

Why does this map show a decided LEFT turn at the very northern edge of NB? I thought the front was going to pick this thing up and sweep it east out across the Northern Atlantic once it got that far north?

[mitchell]

18z eps ensembles
https://i.imgur.com/kPGNfqD.jpg

Why does this map show a decided LEFT turn at the very northern edge of NB? I thought the front was going to pick this thing up and sweep it east out across the Northern Atlantic once it got that far north?

I think that black line making a right angle to the left at the very end is more an unintended artifact of some aspect of the data than any kind of consensus among the ensemble members for a late left turn. The actual ensemble tracks in that link certainly dont look (to me) like they are indicative of a late run left turn.

[LarryWx]

 
 -Recent EPS Runs' US Landfalls: going down

9/14 6Z: 6 (12%) 6 ME

9/14 0Z: 7 (14%) 7 ME

9/13 18Z: 10 (20%) 10 ME

9/13 12Z: 14 (28%) 13 ME, 1 MA

9/13 6Z: 35 (69%) 27 ME, 6 MA, 2 RI

9/12 18Z: 36 (71%) 21 ME, 9 MA, 3 RI, 3 NY (LI)

I'll add these two most recent EPS runs:

9/14 12Z: 11 (22%) 10 ME, 1 MA (CC)

9/14 18Z EPS had a mere two (4%) US landfalling members and they were on the far E end of ME. So, it's looking very good for no US landfall.

[tomatkins]

18z eps ensembles
https://i.imgur.com/kPGNfqD.jpg

Why does this map show a decided LEFT turn at the very northern edge of NB? I thought the front was going to pick this thing up and sweep it east out across the Northern Atlantic once it got that far north?

https://i.imgur.com/kPGNfqD.jpeg

I think that black line making a right angle to the left at the very end is more an unintended artifact of some aspect of the data than any kind of consensus among the ensemble members for a late left turn. The actual ensemble tracks in that link certainly dont look (to me) like they are indicative of a late run left turn.

Yes - its just an artifact of averaging. At the end of the run presumably a bunch of the right most members are no longer being tracked (they become extratropical or too weak to track or whatever) and so the average cuts way to the left.

[LarryWx]

12Z UK W NS:

HURRICANE LEE ANALYSED POSITION : 35.2N 67.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132023

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 15.09.2023 0 35.2N 67.0W 965 61
0000UTC 16.09.2023 12 38.4N 66.3W 961 71
1200UTC 16.09.2023 24 42.1N 66.5W 962 50
0000UTC 17.09.2023 36 44.7N 66.1W 980 42
1200UTC 17.09.2023 48 47.1N 63.1W 990 37
0000UTC 18.09.2023 60 49.5N 58.2W 995 30
1200UTC 18.09.2023 72 53.1N 47.2W 993 35
0000UTC 19.09.2023 84 54.5N 32.8W 986 35
1200UTC 19.09.2023 96 CEASED TRACKING

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1752873489273614751