EPAC: JOVA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hurricane2022]

We did it, we did it, Jova. You're going to be the next Category 5 of the East Pacific Basin

[Category5Kaiju]

We did it, we did it, Jova. You're going to be the next Category 5 of the East Pacific Basin
https://imageshack.com/i/poTx2VElp
https://imageshack.com/i/pomuo0s2j

Well, it's now official. Jova is officially a Category 5.

[Ntxw]

[MarioProtVI]

Wow, the mad lads actually did it..probably could get up there towards 150-155 kt before it EWRCs..

All eyes on Lee to see if he will dethrone Jova this weekend..

[Ntxw]

This has definitely been the surprise storm of the year imo. A few days ago looking at just models most would guess another low major to maybe c4.

[Hurricane2022]

This has definitely been the surprise storm of the year imo. A few days ago looking at just models most would guess another low major to maybe c4.

It's not Jover.

[Category5Kaiju]

This has definitely been the surprise storm of the year imo. A few days ago looking at just models most would guess another low major to maybe c4.

I could be very wrong about this, but it seems to be that many EPAC systems tend to be underestimated?

[Yellow Evan]

Eye has contracted and not well resolved now by geostationary due to its small size. Holding onto T7.5 - could be in the neighborhood of around 160 knots if it keeps it up.

[Ptarmigan]

Hurricane Jova looks like a Category 5 hurricane.

[Ptarmigan]

Latest advisory for Hurricane Jova. It is forecasted to have 175 mph winds. I would not be surprised to see 185 mph winds.

Hurricane Jova Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023
900 PM MDT Wed Sep 06 2023

The remarkable rapid intensification (RI) of Jova has continued this
evening. The hurricane's very warm, 10 n-mi-wide eye is surrounded
by a symmetric central dense overcast of convective cloud tops
colder than -75 deg C. Recent SSMIS microwave images suggest an
eyewall replacement cycle (ERC) is underway, with signs of a
formative secondary eyewall noted in 89-GHz imagery. The GOES
Geostationary Lightning Mapper has also shown an increase in inner
core lightning activity during the past several hours. Based on
Dvorak data-T numbers of 7.0 from SAB and TAFB at 00 UTC and rapidly
climbing objective intensity estimates, the initial intensity of
Jova is raised to 140 kt. This makes Jova a category 5 hurricane on
the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale and signifies an 80-kt
intensity increase over the past 24 h.

The onset of an ERC and the recent lightning activity suggest that
the hurricane could be nearing its peak intensity. Structural
changes related to the ERC could cause some near-term intensity
fluctuations, but the NHC forecast still allows for a bit more
strengthening overnight given Jova's striking satellite presentation
and the conducive oceanic and atmospheric conditions along its path.
The hurricane is forecast to reach the 26C isotherm in 36-48 h,
after which time a faster rate of weakening is forecast while Jova
moves over cooler waters and into a drier mid-level environment.
Regardless, Jova is likely to remain a powerful hurricane for the
next few days. This forecast shows Jova keeping its tropical cyclone
status through day 5, although the global models suggest it could be
mostly devoid of convection and nearly post-tropical by the end of
the forecast period.

A mid-level ridge centered over northern Mexico is steering Jova to
the west-northwest (300/13 kt). With the ridge entrenched to its
north, the hurricane is expected to continue on a west-northwestward
heading for the next several days, as depicted by the well-clustered
track guidance. The updated NHC forecast lies very close to the
previous prediction, but once again has been adjusted slightly
faster based on the latest TVCN and HCCA consensus aids. As the
cyclone gradually spins down and weakens over cooler waters, the
shallow vortex is forecast to turn more westward at days 4 and 5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 15.7N 113.0W 140 KT 160 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 16.4N 115.1W 150 KT 175 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 17.6N 117.8W 135 KT 155 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 18.7N 120.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 09/0000Z 20.0N 123.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 09/1200Z 21.4N 125.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 10/0000Z 22.8N 127.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 11/0000Z 24.6N 130.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 12/0000Z 25.5N 134.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

[bob rulz]

Man how I wish we had recon into this storm right now. I doubt NHC would go to 185mph without recon. Even 175 might be tough, but if any storm could it's this one.

[Yellow Evan]

Eye nearly 18C.

[CryHavoc]

This has definitely been the surprise storm of the year imo. A few days ago looking at just models most would guess another low major to maybe c4.

I could be very wrong about this, but it seems to be that many EPAC systems tend to be underestimated?

In my experience/opinion, all TCs these days without direct observation are notably underestimated compared to the datasets we have.

[Ntxw]

This has definitely been the surprise storm of the year imo. A few days ago looking at just models most would guess another low major to maybe c4.

I could be very wrong about this, but it seems to be that many EPAC systems tend to be underestimated?

In my experience/opinion, all TCs these days without direct observation are notably underestimated compared to the datasets we have.

Our methods of estimation have flaws, especially in systems that rapidly intensity like this.

[Yellow Evan]

21C eye.

[TorSkk]

Who knows what recon could find in Jova...

[Yellow Evan]

And -15C eye temperature on WV. Completely nuts.

[Yellow Evan]

Outer CDO bursting screams ERC is probably in its early stages.

[TorSkk]

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/733552978572869632/1149220455014748210/image0.gif

Outer CDO bursting screams ERC is probably in its early stages.

The CMG ring is now warming as well

[Yellow Evan]

07/0600 UTC 16.1N 113.7W T7.5/7.5 JOVA -- East Pacific