EPAC: JOVA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 07 SEP 2023 Time : 061020 UTC
Lat : 16:02:24 N Lon : 113:47:24 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.9 / 926.4mb/137.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.9 7.2 7.5

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 12 km

Center Temp : +20.3C Cloud Region Temp : -75.7C

Scene Type : EYE

[hurricanes1234]

Literal perfection!

[Sciencerocks]

[CrazyC83]

I'd assess it at 155 kt (pressure 908 mb) right now - in line with the T7.5 estimate. That said, it is probably peaking now due to the imminent ERC.

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 11, 202309070600, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1610N, 11370W, , 1, 140, 2, 921, 2, DVRK, , , , , , , , , , , , , , E, TAFB, SK, I, 1, 7070 /////, , , GOES16, CSC, T, DT is 7.5

[Hurricane Mike]

Probably about 180 mph. Insane.

[Subtrop]

EP, 11, 2023090706, , BEST, 0, 161N, 1137W, 140, 929, HU, 34, NEQ, 100, 100, 90, 90, 1008, 250, 10, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, JOVA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 018,
EP, 11, 2023090706, , BEST, 0, 161N, 1137W, 140, 929, HU, 50, NEQ, 50, 40, 30, 30, 1008, 250, 10, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, JOVA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 018,
EP, 11, 2023090706, , BEST, 0, 161N, 1137W, 140, 929, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 20, 10, 15, 1008, 250, 10, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, JOVA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 018,

[CryHavoc]

Jova's eye reportedly 26 degrees. Yeesh. Still may be increasing in intensity as I see no direct indications of an EWRC just yet.

[kevin]

Final T# now at 7.0, adj T# at 7.2 and raw T# at 7.5. Usually I'd lean towards the final T# during periods of RI (see Eta for example). But due to the length that the raw T# has already been 7+ (almost 12 hours now), I think going very close to the raw T# is allowed for the current intensity. So I'd go for T7.4, which would result in a current intensity of 150 kt, 909 mb. Not sure if NHC is willing to do what without recon though, but I can see them go for 145 kt if there isn't an EWRC by the next advisory. This is gonna be a really interesting post-season analysis, that's for sure.

[Yellow Evan]

 https://twitter.com/zeb199818/status/1699687934465921354




AVHRR eye temperatures run a bit hot compared to geo for reasons I don’t understand but still.

[Yellow Evan]

 https://twitter.com/zeb199818/status/1699689028743012736

[kevin]

Also, not sure if anyone already mentioned this, but Jova is on the same level as hurricane Wilma in terms of intensification from a tropical storm to a Category 5 hurricane. Both did so in 24 hours. 24 hours is also the record in the Atlantic basin, but it's not the record for the EPAC. I'm pretty sure that record is 18 hours by Patricia. But it's crazy that we've basically experienced Wilma level RI over the last 24 hours.

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ27 KNES 070658
TCSENP

A. 11E (JOVA)

B. 07/0600Z

C. 16.1N

D. 113.7W

E. ONE/GOES-W

F. T7.5/7.5

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG AND EMBEDDED IN W RESULTS IN AN
E# OF 6.0 AND EADJ OF +1.0 FOR A DT OF 7.0. 6 HR AVG GIVES A OF DT=7.4
SO CONSTRAINTS BROKEN. APROX 15 NM DIAMETER EYE WITH A MAX TEMP OF +20
C. OUTSTANDING UPR-LVL OUTFLOW PATTERN. MET=5.0 AND PT=5.5. FT BASED ON
6 HR AVG DT.

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 07 SEP 2023 Time : 074020 UTC
Lat : 16:07:12 N Lon : 114:12:35 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.1 / 920.5mb/143.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.1 7.2 7.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : +16.9C Cloud Region Temp : -75.2C

Scene Type : EYE

[Foxfires]

Well it looks like we got some excitement tonight - I was hoping for the bump to 160 mph so kudos. I also want to know if its the fastest from TD to CAT 5, I don't know how folks search for metadata like that aside from getting some stat somewhere else and comparing.

Worldwide? JTWC has Ambali 2019 do TD -> C5 in 1.5 days, which is faster than Jova (~2 days).
EPac? Idk, but it's not Patricia somehow.

[kevin]

Still impressive, but the CDO is warming and no longer as perfect as before. Probably peaked 2 - 3 hours ago. EWRC imminent now.

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Jova Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023
300 AM MDT Thu Sep 07 2023

Jova appears to have halted its rather impressive intensification.
The central dense overcast has become more asymmetric, with deep
bursts of convection developing to the south of the circulation,
and the cloud top temperatures have generally warmed. The initial
intensity is held at 140 kt to represent a blend of the subjective
and objective satellite intensity estimates that range between
134-155 kt.

Atmospheric and oceanic conditions remain conducive for some
additional strengthening. However, structural changes such as the
eyewall replacement cycles discussed in the previous advisory, may
cause some short-term intensity fluctuations. The NHC prediction
still allows for some strengthening within 12 h before beginning a
rapid weakening trend as the hurricane moves over increasingly
cooler ocean waters and into a dry and stable airmass. By the end of
forecast period, simulated satellite imagery from the GFS model
suggests the cyclone will be devoid of convection, and official
forecast shows Jova to be a post-tropical remnant low by day 5.

The hurricane continues to move west-northwestward at 14 kt around
the edge of a mid-level ridge centered over northern Mexico. The
ridge is expected to be the dominate steering feature during the
next few days and Jova should maintain the same general motion until
the end of the forecast period. At that point the weakening,
shallow vortex should turn westward in the low-level flow. The NHC
track forecast has been shifted to the north slightly and is a bit
slower than the previous prediction, still between the HCCA and TVCN
consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 16.4N 114.4W 140 KT 160 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 17.3N 116.4W 150 KT 175 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 18.5N 119.1W 135 KT 155 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 19.7N 121.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 09/0600Z 20.9N 124.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 09/1800Z 22.2N 126.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 10/0600Z 23.4N 128.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 11/0600Z 25.0N 130.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 12/0600Z 25.5N 133.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Bucci

[TorSkk]

It's certainly peaked a few hours ago, in my opinion likely at least 155 knots, but who knows? 160 or more possible

[aspen]

Insane storm. It probably peaked overnight at around 150 kt IMO.

[kevin]

Jova rapidly degrading and warming on IR as an EWRC is starting. Probably closer to 130 - 135 kt now. But peak was definitely a cat 5 and imo also higher than the assessed 140 kt (I'd put it at 150 kt at peak, maybe 155 kt).