MED: DANIEL - Post-Tropical/Aftermath

[Extratropical94]

I’m confused… who has named this Daniel?

Put me down as confused too, where does the nane "Daniel" come from?...

FU-Berlin

https://i.imgur.com/B5KlEaE.gif

No, it says "int“ for internationally named. Lows named by the FU Berlin would appear in bold red text.

[Vince_and_Grace_fan]

The current (12Z) GFS run is stronger again:

[AJC3]

They must be getting some insane rainfall amounts within that stationary, intense convective band north of the center. Fortunately, the heaviest amounts are falling over the Ionian Sea.

Are there any recent rainfall reports from Peloponnese (particularly the S-SW coast) over the last 24-hours?

[Vince_and_Grace_fan]

They must be getting some insane rainfall amounts within that stationary, intense convective band north of the center. Fortunately, the heaviest amounts are falling over the Ionian Sea.

Are there any recent rainfall reports from Peloponnese (particularly the S-SW coast) over the last 24-hours?

You can check today's rain data (select from the parameters, the 2333 mm in Sarakinado / Zakynthos and the 310 mm in Porto Rafti must be an error): https://www.meteo.gr/Gmap.cfm

Additionally, a ship (EUMDE40) provided hourly data as it passed a bit north of the cyclone's center from west to east naerly along the latitude 35N, and measured minimum pressure of 1004.8 hPa and maximum (10-min.) sustained wind of 55 km/h (30 kt). https://www.meteociel.com/temps-reel/obs_boueebateau.php?affint=1&code2=EUMDE40&jour2=7&mois2=8&annee2=2023 Based on this, the central pressure is likely 1003-1004 hPa and the strong convection may produce gale-force winds further north.

[AJC3]

They must be getting some insane rainfall amounts within that stationary, intense convective band north of the center. Fortunately, the heaviest amounts are falling over the Ionian Sea.

Are there any recent rainfall reports from Peloponnese (particularly the S-SW coast) over the last 24-hours?

You can check today's rain data (select from the parameters, the 2333 mm in Sarakinado / Zakynthos and the 310 mm in Porto Rafti must be an error): https://www.meteo.gr/Gmap.cfm

Additionally, a ship (EUMDE40) provided hourly data as it passed a bit north of the cyclone's center from west to east naerly along the latitude 35N, and measured minimum pressure of 1004.8 hPa and maximum (10-min.) sustained wind of 55 km/h (30 kt). https://www.meteociel.com/temps-reel/obs_boueebateau.php?affint=1&code2=EUMDE40&jour2=7&mois2=8&annee2=2023 Based on this, the central pressure is likely 1003-1004 hPa and the strong convection may produce gale-force winds further north.

I agree with your intensity assessment. Based on the continued improvement in wind/convective structure, I believe Daniel has been a Subtropical Storm since at least early this morning (U.S. time)

[Europa non è lontana]

Convection not as far away from the centre of circulation now. Some cloud tops below -60C. Maybe has another two and a half days to organise before landfall in Libya.

[Sciencerocks]

Looking more tropical with deep convection within 80 nmi to the north. I'd expect this to become a tropical storm by sometime tomorrow or within the next 24 hours....Probably 45 knots for landfall.

[Europa non è lontana]

00z GFS has the strongest solution with landfall over the city of Ajdabiya and 45kt sustained winds and heavy rain affecting the major oil exporting sites in Ras Lanuf and Brega. The Euro and ICON both have landfall over the city of Benghazi, both with very high rain totals in the Jebel al-Akhdar hills.

[Vince_and_Grace_fan]

The circulation is still somewhat disorganized as smaller eddies rotate around the larger but rather broad main vortex, however, the convection becames increasingly better organized and the upper-level outflow has already started to develop on the northern side. At 05Z a ship (ZCEE2) reported sustained winds of 43 kt and pressure of 1005.3 hPa NW of the center (36.0N, 16.4E).
The models indicate the formation of a well-defined poleward outflow channel by tomorrow, which could help the system to intensify more quickly. Most of the models show a medium-range TS by Sunday morning, but the GFS and the Australian model are a bit stronger, while the Swiss model continues to strengthen the cyclone into a hurricane, now even in the late evening hours of Saturday.

[Vince_and_Grace_fan]

The convection weakened a bit in the last hours, but the center reformed closer to the convective cluster and the upper-level outflow became even more defined, so it is likely a TS now.
Ship reports still indicate winds between 40-45 kt while the central pressure is likely around 1002-1003 hPa based on a data of 1004.2 hPa NE of the center (35.4N 18.1E) at 12Z.

[Vince_and_Grace_fan]

The cyclone didn't become any better organized yet since the early afternoon hours. The current models also took back from further development, most of them show almost unchanged intensity trough the next 1-1.5 day, and the agreement among the models is greater now by the Sunday morning landfall.

[Europa non è lontana]

Large areas of inundated land in the Thessalian plain caused by Daniel during the cut-off low phase



Ten-model 12z landfall location and intensity comparison



ICON, ECMWF, ACCESS-G & CMC model 24-hour rainfall total comparison

[TorSkk]

Thanks for all the updates. Looks like Daniel probably had multiple centers today, but there is decent convection now building over one of them

[AJC3]

Two early morning (08Z-09Z) ASCAT passes over STS Daniel showed the storm's wind max (believable 35kt vectors) closer to the center than it has been thus far. Those stronger winds are still limited to its north side, with no stronger than 20-25kt being shows on its south side. However, Daniel is starting to wrap convection around it's center into that southern flank, so one would expect stronger winds to develop over this area as well. Hopefully we get some good evening ASCAT passes over it.

In any event, IMO Daniel is now arguably a shallow warm core tropical cyclone, or very close to it. There's a good chance it would be classified as such by NHC right now.

[AJC3]

40kt+ based on the last ASCAT pass, with the stronger winds now wrapping around the south side of the LLCC. The structure and convective organization is becoming more Impressive by the hour.

I have no hesitation in calling this a Tropical Storm now.

[AJC3]

Online article stating 10 deaths and 4 missing in Greece from floods caused by Daniel.

https://www.ekathimerini.com/news/12195 ... al-greece/

[Sciencerocks]

 https://twitter.com/VortixWx/status/1700340077996474483

[Europa non è lontana]

Broad consensus on landfall location has finally emerged among the 0z global models, with almost all having landfall in Benghazi district. In addition, extremely high rainfall is forecast over the Jebel al-Akhdar hills. The city of al-Marj would receive nearly 200mm of rain in 24 hours according to the GFS, over 120mm according to UKMet, around 170mm according to the CMC, and around 120mm according to the ACCESS-G model. Considering the state of infrastructure in Libya, the humanitarian cost of Daniel could be very high if these rain impacts verify, especially since there is usually no rainfall between mid-May and mid-September.

24 hour rainfall totals according to 0z models

[ChrisH-UK]

Daniel has plenty of convection and the center of rotation looks to be tucked under it.

Geo-Colour + IR loop of Daniel.

[Vince_and_Grace_fan]

ASCAT measured maximum winds of around 40 kt near 08Z, but the convection became more organized since then, so it is probably a bit stronger now.