ATL: PHILIPPE - Post Tropical/Extratropical - Discussion

[ConvergenceZone]

So glad to see the Atlantic slowly starting to calm down. Hopefully the season will end early and October and November will be non-eventful.

Calming down? Activity has been relatively consistent for the last month now.

What I mean by calming down is that over the last few weeks, previously when looking at the Atlantic there were 3 to 4 named storms in the Atlantic as opposed to the 1 named storm and a wave, which is what we are seeing now. Sounds like a big difference to me.

[ElectricStorm]

So glad to see the Atlantic slowly starting to calm down. Hopefully the season will end early and October and November will be non-eventful.

Calming down? Activity has been relatively consistent for the last month now.

What I mean by calming down is that over the last few weeks, previously when looking at the Atlantic there were 3 to 4 named storms in the Atlantic as opposed to the 1 named storm and a wave, which is what we are seeing now. Sounds like a big difference to me.

I mean that's not really a whole lot different, it's been continuously active overall since Emily and Gert formed

[cycloneye]

So glad to see the Atlantic slowly starting to calm down. Hopefully the season will end early and October and November will be non-eventful.

11 named storms between August 20 and September 22 and one more is waiting on the pipe.

[Sciencerocks]

[ConvergenceZone]

Calming down? Activity has been relatively consistent for the last month now.

What I mean by calming down is that over the last few weeks, previously when looking at the Atlantic there were 3 to 4 named storms in the Atlantic as opposed to the 1 named storm and a wave, which is what we are seeing now. Sounds like a big difference to me.

I mean that's not really a whole lot different, it's been continuously active overall since Emily and Gert formed

which is exactly why we are due for a big slowdown....

[DioBrando]

What I mean by calming down is that over the last few weeks, previously when looking at the Atlantic there were 3 to 4 named storms in the Atlantic as opposed to the 1 named storm and a wave, which is what we are seeing now. Sounds like a big difference to me.

I mean that's not really a whole lot different, it's been continuously active overall since Emily and Gert formed

which is exactly why we are due for a big slowdown....

[Landy]

90L looks deceptively well tonight. Last ASCAT didn't show a closed circulation but hard to imagine it's not working towards it looking like this.

[Sciencerocks]

Probably Tropical depression by 11am est...Tropical storm by 5pm...

[WalterWhite]

Probably Tropical depression by 11am est...Tropical storm by 5pm...

ASCAT needs to confirm it for the NHC to identify it as a tropical depression.

[WalterWhite]

This will probably become the fourth major hurricane of the season.

[abajan]

Best Track:

AL, 90, 2023092306, , BEST, 0, 158N, 355W, 30, 1008, DB

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

This will probably become the fourth major hurricane of the season.

Model consensus seems to be cat 2

[abajan]

Best Track:

AL, 90, 2023092300, , BEST, 0, 158N, 350W, 25, 1008, DB

https://i.imgur.com/NHz3ygb.png

Hi my friend. To let you know that edited the post to add the 00z graphic of best track as you had the 18z one.

The track history depicted in both graphics were actually identical. It's just that the labels at the top-left differed. Whereas mine was labelled
Invest 90L Best Track History At 18:00z, Sep 22, 2023,
yours is labelled
Invest 90L Best Track History At 00:00z, Sep 23, 2023.

Click the link above (your graphic) and compare it with mine below:



The last triangle in both is located at the same coordinates: 15.8N 35.0W.

[WalterWhite]

1. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL90):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands have
become better organized during the past few hours. Satellite-derived
wind data is expected to arrive later this morning which should
provide more information on if a well-defined surface circulation
has also developed. Further development is expected and a tropical
depression will likely form today. The system is forecast to move
generally westward at 10 to 15 mph for the next few days, and then
turn west-northwestward or northwestward starting Tuesday.
Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.

[cycloneye]

Just a matter of time to be a TD or TS depending on the ASCAT.

[Hurricane2022]

LLC?

[cycloneye]

LLC?

https://imageshack.com/i/pmvxze8Xp

Bingo.

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90L)

B. 23/1200Z

C. 15.7N

D. 38.1W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. T1.5/1.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...AN EXPOSED LLCC WITH SPIRAL CLOUD LINES LOCATED <75 NM
FROM THE LARGE COLD OVERCAST RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.5. THE MET IS 1.0 AND
THE PT IS 1.5. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...BROWN

[cycloneye]

Moving west at 270 degrees.

INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12

AL, 90, 2023092312, , BEST, 0, 158N, 380W, 30, 1008, LO

[MarioProtVI]

This will probably become the fourth major hurricane of the season.

Model consensus seems to be cat 2

Not even that, models just trended significantly weaker now. Barely a C1.

[Subtrop]

AL, 17, 2023092312, , BEST, 0, 156N, 381W, 30, 1007, TS, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 180, 70, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SEVENTEEN, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 032, TRANSITIONED, alC02023 to al172023,

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/A ... 172023.dat