ATL: PHILIPPE - Post Tropical/Extratropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

AL, 90, 2023092118, , BEST, 0, 132N, 289W, 25, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 032, SPAWNINVEST, al762023 to al902023,

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal902023.dat

THread that was the topic for this area at Talking Tropics forum.

https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 1&t=123715

[ElectricStorm]

Here we go, islands need to watch this one closely

[Sciencerocks]

[sunnyday]

Is this one likely to turn north or recurve, also?

[Hurricane2022]

Will it be a girl or a boy?

[KirbyDude25]

Will it be a girl or a boy?
https://imageshack.com/i/pnjkyVS0p

The next name is Ophelia, but that'll probably go to PTC 16. After that is Philippe, most likely Hurricane Philippe based on the current intensity guidance (though we'll have to wait a cycle for more models to run)

[mantis83]

Is this one likely to turn north or recurve, also?

Yes!......according to the latest runs of the euro and gfs

[galaxy401]

It's the season of recurves so far. This one will go more west then Nigel so one to watch for sure for the islands. Going to be a long tracker.

[cycloneye]

It's the season of recurves so far. This one will go more west then Nigel so one to watch for sure for the islands. Going to be a long tracker.

Even thou, the models haved shifted more east from the NE Caribbean islands, we are watching closely.

[cycloneye]

Is organizing and at the same time, is moving fairly fast. There is already outflow to the north.

[aspen]

Looks like this’ll recurve into an undisturbed patch of 29-30C SSTs around 55W or so. Perhaps we could see another major, but I’ll be skeptical after Nigel.

[cycloneye]

3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE NOAA G-IV SYNOPTIC
SURVEILLANCE MISSION EAST OF LESSER ANTILLES, DEPARTING
TBPB AT 25/0530Z.

To let you know that moved your post to then create the 90L recon thread.

[cycloneye]

I can see this getting between 25-30 ACE units.

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWD:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic: Broad low pressure is developing in
association with a eastern Atlantic tropical wave, centered near
13N30W. The wave and low are moving W at around 10 kt. Shower and
thunderstorm activity in the vicinity of the low, a couple hundred
miles SW of the Cabo Verde Islands, has shown some signs of
organization this evening, with scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection extending from 12N to 17N between 26W and 31W.
Fresh to locally strong E winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft are present
within about 100 nm N of the low's center. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form this
weekend or early next week while the system moves generally
westward at 10 to 15 kt across the eastern and central tropical
Atlantic. There is a MEDIUM chance of development through 48
hours. Please see the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov for more information.

[ouragans]

8PM TWO - 50%/80%

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure a few hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands are
showing signs of organization. Environmental conditions are forecast
to be conducive for gradual development of this system, and a
tropical depression is likely to form this weekend or early next
week while the system moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph
across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

[Blown Away]

Crazy season, another hurricane that likely doesn’t make it past 55W. IMO, this is expected during El Niño but the TW’s have been coming off Africa at a higher latitude and deepening quickly due to extreme SST’s and OTS in the Central Atlantic.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track:

AL, 90, 2023092200, , BEST, 0, 135N, 305W, 25, 1009, DB

[hipshot]

Crazy season, another hurricane that likely doesn’t make it past 55W. IMO, this is expected during El Niño but the TW’s have been coming off Africa at a higher latitude and deepening quickly due to extreme SST’s and OTS in the Central Atlantic.

What makes you think it won't get past 55W, that's not what I'm seeing?

[abajan]

The thumbnail's perhaps a bit dramatic but the video is worth watching.



Link: https://youtu.be/PdeGSvNJc0c

[Sciencerocks]