ATL: PHILIPPE - Post Tropical/Extratropical - Discussion

[wxman57]

Philippe doesn't pose much threat to the NE Caribbean islands. Any TS wind is southeast of the center, which will pass east of the Caribbean. Might be a little rain in the easternmost islands.

[cycloneye]

Getting closer to Barbuda.

[abajan]

Philippe doesn't pose much threat to the NE Caribbean islands. Any TS wind is southeast of the center, which will pass east of the Caribbean. Might be a little rain in the easternmost islands.

Well, we in Barbados have been experiencing epic thunderstorm activity today, especially during the last couple hours or so. The thunder has been practically nonstop in most areas. To my knowledge, there's been no flooding as yet but that will likely change later as the rain gets more widespread and heavier. Shutting down this computer now to protect it.

[wxman57]

Philippe doesn't pose much threat to the NE Caribbean islands. Any TS wind is southeast of the center, which will pass east of the Caribbean. Might be a little rain in the easternmost islands.

Well, we in Barbados have been experiencing epic thunderstorm activity today, especially during the last couple hours or so. The thunder has been practically nonstop in most areas. To my knowledge, there's been no flooding as yet but that will likely change later as the rain gets more widespread and heavier. Shutting down this computer now to protect it.

My post was referencing the islands of the NE Caribbean, not thunderstorms in Barbados. Yes, Barbados is experiencing thunderstorms well S-SSE of Philippe's center.

[Nimbus]

Basse-Terre, Guadeloupe, Guadeloupe is reporting some light showers heavy tropical thunderstorms forecast through Tuesday. Saw a forecast for up to 4 inches which Texas or Florida envies.

[msbee]

We in St Maarten are now under a flood alert, expecting possible heavy rains from Philippe.
The problem in our islands is that even a disorganized weak tropical storm can bring us too much rain at one time. We can easily experience flooding.
http://www.meteosxm.com/heavy-rainfall-flood-watch/

Also the French Met Office has us on yellow alert for heavy storms. Guadeloupe is under orange alert.
https://meteofrance.mq/fr/vigilance-meteo-antilles

[cycloneye]

We in St Maarten are now under a flood alert, expecting possible heavy rains from Philippe.
The problem in our islands is that even a disorganized weak tropical storm can bring us too much rain at one time. We can easily experience flooding.
http://www.meteosxm.com/heavy-rainfall-flood-watch/

Also the French Met Office has us on yellow alert for heavy storms. Guadeloupe is under orange alert.
https://meteofrance.mq/fr/vigilance-meteo-antilles

Hopefully all goes well there. Barbara and Patti, stay safe.

[Sciencerocks]

[Iceresistance]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/943/4Tgppi.gif

It looks like it's reforming south

[MarioProtVI]

This storm is really beginning to infuriate me. It’s been 45 kt for days and always seems to go through the same cycle: center exposed -> blowup over center -> starts to look a little better overnight -> becomes exposed again in the morning. This is literally Karl 2.0 especially with almost all model guidance downtrending on this now and NHC barely making it a hurricane at the 5-day point.

[Hurricane2022]

[cycloneye]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/943/4Tgppi.gif

It looks like it's reforming south

There was no mention of another center in the discussion.

[Landy]

Looks like Philippe will landfall on Barbuda.

[IsabelaWeather]

Should be landfalling over Barbuda right now, not that there is much to landfall though...

Last few frames of vis looked like it had jogged due west, interesting if true.

[Landy]

Tropical Storm Philippe Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
600 PM AST Mon Oct 02 2023

...PHILIPPE MAKES LANDFALL IN BARBUDA...

Satellite imagery indicate that the center of Philippe made
landfall on the island of Barbuda around 6 PM AST (2200 UTC).
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h).
The latest minimum pressure central pressure is estimated to be 999
mb (29.50 inches).


SUMMARY OF 600 PM AST...2200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 61.8W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM N OF ANTIGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Roberts/Pasch

[Sciencerocks]

[aspen]

This storm is really beginning to infuriate me. It’s been 45 kt for days and always seems to go through the same cycle: center exposed -> blowup over center -> starts to look a little better overnight -> becomes exposed again in the morning. This is literally Karl 2.0 especially with almost all model guidance downtrending on this now and NHC barely making it a hurricane at the 5-day point.

It’s been flip-flopping between “we’ve got another hurricane coming soon” and “this is going to be just a weak slop storm” for the past week lol

[cycloneye]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/943/4Tgppi.gif

It looks like it's reforming south

There was no mention of another center in the discussion.

Plane is on route to see if there is another center.

[chaser1]

When is a Tropical Storm, "not" a Tropical Storm

6:00 pm NHC Special Update - TS Philippe makes landfall on Barbuda

Meanwhile, latest hourly report that I read for Barbuda was:
West wind @ 8 mph

Meteorological explanation truly unnecessary. It's a messaging issue that I believe stems from an accepted and diluted nomenclature.

Hey Barbuda may well experience TS force winds from this event but if not, human nature might dictate the degree of injuries that occur when the next T.S. Warning is hoisted (and potentially ignored).

[Nimbus]

Recon found the center moving west at least short term?
Pretty weak system except the heavy squalls on the back side of the circulation.