ATL: PHILIPPE - Post Tropical/Extratropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

El Niño has the last laugh.

[Teban54]

I think the downtrending in models could be more of a result of changes in track. When Philippe was stills expected to become a Cat 2/3 hurricane, models generally had it doing an early recurve instead of a Lee junior.

[PavelGaborik10]

I think the downtrending in models could be more of a result of changes in track. When Philippe was stills expected to become a Cat 2/3 hurricane, models generally had it doing an early recurve instead of a Lee junior.

To be fair even when the Euro was a significant western outlier it was still much stronger.

Philippe is just a dud thanks to shear.

[Xyls]

Lol, with how these tracks keep changing watch him go into the GoM instead and then RI in a Cat 5.

The modelling on this storm has been very poor to say the least LOL.

[Sciencerocks]

[Ubuntwo]

I think the downtrending in models could be more of a result of changes in track. When Philippe was stills expected to become a Cat 2/3 hurricane, models generally had it doing an early recurve instead of a Lee junior.

Steering flow was much weaker at the higher levels, meaning a stronger storm would stall vs. continuing west - eventually recurving faster. This continued motion brought it closer to the upper trough currently over the southwest Atlantic. Basically increasing shear in a feedback loop. I believe the euro suite progged this quite well.

[Teban54]

 https://twitter.com/lukedorrisWPLG/status/1709173313199628522

[wxman57]

Philippe fits the pattern for 2023. Tropical storm then zombie storm for a while then maybe a return to a TS. Models are not indicating much change until it passes Bermuda and begins to merge with a frontal boundary. What eventually reaches Nova Scotia will not likely be tropical, though it could produce 50-60 mph winds. I'm curious as to whether the NHC will stop advisories after it transitions to ET to the NE of Bermuda or continue until the low passes Nova Scotia.

[cycloneye]

[Sciencerocks]

[wxman57]

Philippe seems to be struggling to maintain (or redevelop) a circulation center. Will it ever develop one before it merges with the front and non-tropical low north of Bermuda?

[cycloneye]

Agree 100% with Tyler.

@TylerJStanfield
Well-defined center not found.

Philippe has been one of the more challenging systems to forecast this season.

It’s great example of the challenges computer models still have in assessing wind shear environments and whether the TC can/cannot overcome it.

 https://twitter.com/TylerJStanfield/status/1709630237938475273

[WeatherBoy2000]

 https://twitter.com/WxPatel/status/1709647460191109222




At 8.2 ace, Philippe has produced more ace than two hurricanes this season (Don/Idalia).

[Sciencerocks]

[emeraldislenc]

How much rain did the islands get? Just curious?

[HurricaneBelle]

this stat is remarkable

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1709673038743052607

[USVI-Kimmie-2]

How much rain did the islands get? Just curious?

I"m on the eastern end of St Thomas and my CoCoRaHS rain gauge was 3.15 inches. It drizzled most of the day, WAPA went out (that's the power company. I guess the plant got wet ) then just had another big band of squalls roll through.

[Sciencerocks]

[Sciencerocks]

[wxman57]

Philippe's struggle to develop a well-defined LLC continues. I would have classified it as a remnant low yesterday. Euro has it merging a cold front tomorrow then developing as an extratropical low. Makes sense, to me.