ATL: PHILIPPE - Post Tropical/Extratropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - Tropical Storm - Discussion: Made landfall at Barbuda

#261 Postby USTropics » Mon Oct 02, 2023 7:11 pm

chaser1 wrote:When is a Tropical Storm, "not" a Tropical Storm :double:

6:00 pm NHC Special Update - TS Philippe makes landfall on Barbuda

Meanwhile, latest hourly report that I read for Barbuda was:
West wind @ 8 mph

Meteorological explanation truly unnecessary. It's a messaging issue that I believe stems from an accepted and diluted nomenclature.

Hey Barbuda may well experience TS force winds from this event but if not, human nature might dictate the degree of injuries that occur when the next T.S. Warning is hoisted (and potentially ignored).


It's definitely a sheared tropical storm, but a tropical storm with a trackable LLC:
Image

The strongest winds and rain were always expected to be to the S and SE, the NHC wind field estimate has consistently shown this for 3+ days (even if the track had to be adjusted westward):
Image

While actual "landfall" location is experiencing nothing more than variable winds currently, locations to the south like Guadeloupe reported 25kt gusts with 20kt sustained:
TFFR 022300Z AUTO 17020KT 1800 TSRA BR BKN006/// BKN013/// OVC022/// ///CB 26/25 Q1005 TEMPO VRB15G25KT 1000 TSRA SCT008 BKN015CB


The strongest winds are even more displaced to the east of that. It still is 100% a tropical storm though, just a very tilted and sheared one.
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Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#262 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Oct 02, 2023 7:20 pm

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Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#263 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Oct 02, 2023 9:39 pm

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Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#264 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 02, 2023 9:50 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number 39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
1100 PM AST Mon Oct 02 2023

...HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 62.1W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM ESE OF ST. MARTIN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
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Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#265 Postby ElectricStorm » Mon Oct 02, 2023 10:46 pm

Models downtrending hard, I doubt it gets any stronger than a minimal Cat 1 at most and I'm skeptical it'll even get there. Thinking around a 50-55kt peak for now.
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Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#266 Postby Landy » Tue Oct 03, 2023 12:16 am

Highest recorded rainfall total in Guadeloupe so far is 314mm / 12.4 inches in the last 6 hours.
Image
Source: https://meteofrance.gp/fr/vigilance/guadeloupe / https://web.archive.org/web/20231003051741/https://meteofrance.gp/fr/vigilance/guadeloupe
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Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#267 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 03, 2023 5:25 am

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Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#268 Postby MarioProtVI » Tue Oct 03, 2023 7:01 am

ElectricStorm wrote:Models downtrending hard, I doubt it gets any stronger than a minimal Cat 1 at most and I'm skeptical it'll even get there. Thinking around a 50-55kt peak for now.

Literally Karl 2016 2.0
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Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#269 Postby Sciencerocks » Tue Oct 03, 2023 7:24 am

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Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#270 Postby ThunderForce » Tue Oct 03, 2023 8:26 am

The NHC's latest forecast doesn't appear to show Philippe making it to a hurricane anymore.
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Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#271 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 03, 2023 8:37 am

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Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#272 Postby ConvergenceZone » Tue Oct 03, 2023 8:59 am

Glad to see that tropical activity is slowly dying down...It's nice to open up the map and not see several storms in the Atlantic. It's about friggin time!
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Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#273 Postby wxman57 » Tue Oct 03, 2023 9:37 am

Nimbus wrote:Recon found the center moving west at least short term?
Pretty weak system except the heavy squalls on the back side of the circulation.


I think the circulation may have dissipated, though I see a little swirl near 19.4N/64.3W. Mainly heavy rain is left. NHC mentioned the weakening circulation. That doesn't mean it won't regenerate one.
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Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#274 Postby wxman57 » Tue Oct 03, 2023 11:25 am

Recon is looking for a center well south of that little swirl up around 19.5N/64.4W.
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Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#275 Postby PavelGaborik10 » Tue Oct 03, 2023 11:45 am

Oh joy, another weak, sloppy mess for the Canadian media/public to overhype/freak out again for the next week.

Hopefully this enlongated mess stays away, not even convinced it survives at this point.
Last edited by PavelGaborik10 on Tue Oct 03, 2023 5:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#276 Postby wxman57 » Tue Oct 03, 2023 12:16 pm

We are debating its survival now. My coworker says it's dead. I don't think the NHC will give up on it. GFS seems to merge it with another low and take it inland into Nova Scotia Saturday night with about 50 kt winds as an ET storm. EC has been similar. Canadian is similar but a bit slower. I think it may well survive and impact Nova Scotia as a 45-50 kt ET storm this weekend.
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Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#277 Postby Nimbus » Tue Oct 03, 2023 2:44 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:Glad to see that tropical activity is slowly dying down...It's nice to open up the map and not see several storms in the Atlantic. It's about friggin time!



All that dry air digging deep into the gulf is a seasonal October thing.
Still need to watch the western Caribbean for the rare late season Florida event though.
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Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#278 Postby Sciencerocks » Tue Oct 03, 2023 3:22 pm

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Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#279 Postby Hurricane2022 » Tue Oct 03, 2023 3:39 pm


Bust! See you in 2029!
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Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#280 Postby galaxy401 » Tue Oct 03, 2023 4:58 pm

So much for the idea of shear eventually letting up.
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Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.


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