WPAC: 13W - Remnants

[Hayabusa]

91W.INVEST

WP, 91, 2023092300, , BEST, 0, 157N, 1185E, 15, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,

[Hayabusa]

ABPW10 PGTW 230600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/230600Z-240600ZSEP2023//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 15.9N
117.4E, APPROXIMATELY 425 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 230220Z ASCAT-B IMAGE DEPICT A
BROAD AND DISORGANIZED REGION OF CONVECTION WITH NO DEFINITIVE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OBSERVED ALONG A LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENT
BOUNDARY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 91W IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (5-
10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (30-31 C) SST. GLOBAL NUMERICAL
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN HIGH AGREEMENT THAT 91W WILL
TRACK WESTWARD AND SLOWLY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 48 TO 96 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

TCFA

WTPN21 PGTW 240800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 91W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.9N 113.2E TO 15.6N 107.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 240600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.8N 112.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
14.9N 113.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 112.4E, APPROXIMATELY 450 NM
SOUTH OF HONG KONG. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
240617Z 88.2 GHZ ATMS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD AREA OF ELONGATED
LOW LEVEL TURNING OF WEST-SOUTHWEST TO EAST-NORTHEAST ORIENTATION WITH
DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT 91W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH
GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
AND WARM (30-31 C) SST. GLOBAL NUMERICAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 91W WILL TRACK SLOWLY WESTWARD AND
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
250800Z.
//
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

Another minor TD...

WWJP27 RJTD 241200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 241200.
WARNING VALID 251200.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 15N 111E WEST SLOWLY.

[Sciencerocks]

[Hayabusa]

13w...