ATL: RINA - Remnants - Discussion

[Sciencerocks]

[Teban54]

Rina has already rotated to the ENE of Philippe from the SE. Pretty cool to see.

[Sciencerocks]

[abajan]

Best Track:

AL, 18, 2023093000, , BEST, 0, 203N, 484W, 40, 1003, TS

[wxman57]

I don't think that Rina will survive much longer. Shear from Philippe is tearing it apart and Philippe will ingest Rina's weak circulation soon.

[dexterlabio]

Weren't Rina and Philippe both forecast to become major canes?

[ElectricStorm]

Weren't Rina and Philippe both forecast to become major canes?

Neither one has officially been forecast to become a hurricane so far, but models have been showing one of them becoming strong for a while now. Looks like it will be Philippe

[Teban54]

Weren't Rina and Philippe both forecast to become major canes?

Not really.

Before Philippe formed, models showed it becoming an MDR major, but the consensus dropped to just a TS by the time it actually formed, even without showing what's now Rina at all. This was likely because they underestimated the shear.

After Philippe formed but before Rina formed, for a while, models showed Rina becoming a major, but without getting so close to Philippe that Fujiwhara became an issue.

Once the interaction was forecast on models, for a while they still showed Rina becoming dominant and absorbing Philippe. Then they flipped to showing Philippe becoming the dominant one, which is currently the case on latest model runs.

So both storms did have model runs showing them becoming majors at some point, but never concurrently.

[Sciencerocks]

[Ubuntwo]

Despite the apparent lack of organization, a pair of ASCAT
passes near 00Z revealed that Rina's wind field was both slightly
larger and stronger than previously estimated. Both ASCAT passes
showed a large swath of winds of 40-45 kt east and northeast of
Rina's center. Based on this new information, the intensity of Rina
has been increased to 45 kt. Both ASCAT passes had slightly higher
winds in the deep convection that were flagged as marginal for
rain contamination, so they weren't considered as representative.
That said, its possible 45 kt could be slightly conservative.

First direct ASCAT hit in a couple days w/ many unflagged returns up to 45kt. Supports 50kt with undersampling and we likely see a bump in post.

[abajan]

Best Track:

AL, 18, 2023093012, , BEST, 0, 209N, 499W, 40, 1002, TS

[Sciencerocks]

[Sciencerocks]

[wxman57]

13Z ASCAT right over Rina did not have any wind over 30 kts. I don't know that it qualifies as a depression at this point.

[Nimbus]

Doubt Rina will have much further effect on the track of Philippe either although there is now the weakness to the north where Rina used to be.

[Sciencerocks]

[Sciencerocks]

[floridasun]

i think it be history by 11am the way look tonight

[dexterlabio]

A completely naked circulation is a TS.

[HurricaneBelle]

she's experiencing Rinal failure