WPAC: INVEST 97W

[Hayabusa]

97W INVEST 231003 0000 8.9N 151.2E WPAC 15 0

[ElectricStorm]

Last few GFS runs have had a powerful typhoon from a disturbance in this general area, but it might from an area further east. Could be interesting though

[Hayabusa]

Euro 00Z develops this, smashes Northern Luzon

[Hayabusa]

00z, GFS recurves assuming it's the same system GFS is developing,

[doomhaMwx]

ECMWF is actually developing the disturbance west of this (near 140E), while GFS develops the one farther east (near 160E).

[Hayabusa]

Euro 00z

[Hayabusa]

00z, Euro is the only one significantly developing it

[Hayabusa]

06z eps

[Hayabusa]

12z

[Hayabusa]

Now low

ABPW10 PGTW 060130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/060130Z-060600ZOCT2023//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/051951ZOCT2023//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 05OCT23 1800Z, TYPHOON 14W (KOINU) WAS LOCATED NEAR
21.9N 118.4E, APPROXIMATELY 235 NM EAST OF HONG KONG, AND HAD TRACKED
WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 70 KNOTS GUSTING TO 85 KNOTS. SEE REF
A (WTPN31 PGTW 052100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
7.1N 157.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.0N 156.0E, APPROXIMATELY 145 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF POHNPEI, MICRONESIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
IMAGERY AND A 052013Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT AN AREA OF
DEEP CYCLONIC CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE NORTHWEST OF A PARTIALLY
EXPOSED, AND GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATING, LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 052230Z ASCAT-C BULLSEYE PASS REVEALS A SOMEWHAT ELONGATED
CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH. WINDS CLOSE IN TO THE
LLCC ARE ESTIMATED AT 15-20 KNOTS, BUT STRONG WESTERLY MONSOONAL FLOW
IS EVIDENT TO THE SOUTH, WITH WINDS EXCEEDING 25 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT 98W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
INTENSIFICATION DUE TO WARM (30C) SST, GOOD DUAL-CHANNEL OUTFLOW,
AND LOW (05-10KT) DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, THE
LATEST UPPER-AIR SOUNDING FROM POHNPEI SHOWS A WEDGE OF ELEVATED
EASTERLY WINDS IN THE 400-600MB LEVELS WHICH IS IMPARTING A FAIR
AMOUNT OF TILT ON THE VORTEX, WHICH WILL SERVE TO SLOW THE PACE OF
CONSOLIDATION. EVEN IN THE FACE OF THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY MID-LEVEL
SHEAR, GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT VORTEX WILL CONTINUE
TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT TRACKS GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
13 TO 17 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.6N
140.5E, APPROXIMATELY 246 NM WEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND A 052031Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT
AN AREA OF DEEP, SYMMETRICAL CONVECTION WHICH HAS PERSISTED FOR THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS, DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH OF A PARTIALLY OBSCURED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). WHILE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
FLARE, IT REMAINS DISORGANIZED AT THIS TIME. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
REVEALS THAT 97W IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT AS DEPICTED BY WARM (30C) SST, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20KT)
VWS, OFFSET BY POOR EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A
GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK, WHILE DISAGREEING ON THE AREA IN WHICH THE
SYSTEM WILL ACTUALLY FORM. EUROPEAN MODELS ANTICIPATE FORMATION IN
THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, WHILE THE CANADIAN MODEL DEPICTS FORMATION TO
THE EAST OF THE PHILIPPINES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[Hayabusa]

Euro 00z makes it a typhoon west of the Philippines