WPAC: BOLAVEN - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

The Mariana islands dodged a huge bullet.

[Hurricane2022]

[Yellow Evan]

TXPQ29 KNES 101910
TCSWNP

A. 15W (BOLAVEN)

B. 10/1730Z

C. 16.0N

D. 144.5E

E. ONE/HIMAWARI-9

F. T6.0/6.0

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...LG EYE SURROUNDED BY CDG AND EMBEDDED IN CMG YIELDS A DT
OF 6.5, ALTHOUGH THE 6-HOUR AVERAGE DT IS 6.1. THE MET IS 5.0 BASED ON A
RAPID DEVELOPING TREND OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE PT IS 5.5. THE FT IS
BASED ON THE 6 HOUR AVERAGE DT, WHICH JUSTIFIES BREAKING ALL CONSTRAINTS.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...BERTALAN

[Yellow Evan]

Category 5 soon with that CDO symmetry and circularity of the eye.

[ElectricStorm]

Newest JTWC forecast has a 145kt peak

[aspen]

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/733552978572869632/1161390215538147448/194230-color.png?ex=65381fec&is=6525aaec&hm=47222925607cfd1b9038b28f74739b55a11060f930a369d8f276727fc3b17ae6&

Category 5 soon with that CDO symmetry and circularity of the eye.

And the JTWC says this is only 100 kt lol

[Hurricane2022]

[Hurricane2022]

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/733552978572869632/1161390215538147448/194230-color.png?ex=65381fec&is=6525aaec&hm=47222925607cfd1b9038b28f74739b55a11060f930a369d8f276727fc3b17ae6&

Category 5 soon with that CDO symmetry and circularity of the eye.

And the JTWC says this is only 100 kt lol

Something very similar happened with Hagibis in 2019.

[Hurricane2022]

 https://twitter.com/CyanideCN_/status/1711862749666701576

[StormTracker89]

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/733552978572869632/1161390215538147448/194230-color.png?ex=65381fec&is=6525aaec&hm=47222925607cfd1b9038b28f74739b55a11060f930a369d8f276727fc3b17ae6&

Category 5 soon with that CDO symmetry and circularity of the eye.

And the JTWC says this is only 100 kt lol

But they did say that the intensity was already higher even just an hour after analysis time.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS WAS ASSESSED AT 1800Z WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, HOWEVER THE
LATEST IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE INTENSITY HAS BLOWN RIGHT THROUGH THAT
THRESHOLD ALREADY BY 1900Z.

[aspen]

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/733552978572869632/1161390215538147448/194230-color.png?ex=65381fec&is=6525aaec&hm=47222925607cfd1b9038b28f74739b55a11060f930a369d8f276727fc3b17ae6&

Category 5 soon with that CDO symmetry and circularity of the eye.

And the JTWC says this is only 100 kt lol

But they did say that the intensity was already higher even just an hour after analysis time.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS WAS ASSESSED AT 1800Z WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, HOWEVER THE
LATEST IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE INTENSITY HAS BLOWN RIGHT THROUGH THAT
THRESHOLD ALREADY BY 1900Z.

Then why didn’t they update the BT ahead of the 5pm EST advisory? The NHC does it all the time. Plenty of times they go 5 kt or so higher than the BT.

[ElectricStorm]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 10 OCT 2023 Time : 220000 UTC
Lat : 16:44:23 N Lon : 144:15:35 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.5 / 955.3mb/102.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.5 6.3 7.6

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 11 km

Center Temp : +16.6C Cloud Region Temp : -79.6C

Scene Type : EYE

[aspen]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 10 OCT 2023 Time : 220000 UTC
Lat : 16:44:23 N Lon : 144:15:35 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.5 / 955.3mb/102.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.5 6.3 7.6

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 11 km

Center Temp : +16.6C Cloud Region Temp : -79.6C

Scene Type : EYE

This is comical. A nearly 17C eye with a -80C CDO, and ADT only gets to 102 kt. What happened to it that it’s been performing so poorly this year?

[Hurricane2022]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 10 OCT 2023 Time : 220000 UTC
Lat : 16:44:23 N Lon : 144:15:35 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.5 / 955.3mb/102.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.5 6.3 7.6

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 11 km

Center Temp : +16.6C Cloud Region Temp : -79.6C

Scene Type : EYE

I'm already prepared to see JTWC estimate winds of 115 - 125 kt for Typhoon Bolaven in the next warning, and state that they have "high confidence" in this estimate ...I hope they don't get caught up in these crappy ADT satellite estimates.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[Yellow Evan]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 10 OCT 2023 Time : 220000 UTC
Lat : 16:44:23 N Lon : 144:15:35 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.5 / 955.3mb/102.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.5 6.3 7.6

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 11 km

Center Temp : +16.6C Cloud Region Temp : -79.6C

Scene Type : EYE

This is comical. A nearly 17C eye with a -80C CDO, and ADT only gets to 102 kt. What happened to it that it’s been performing so poorly this year?

ADT these days always lags behind in extreme pinhole RI cases in part because archer often misses the eye and in part because it sticks to microwave based scene types too long after such RI commences.

[Yellow Evan]

TPPN11 PGTW 110006

A. TYPHOON 15W (BOLAVEN)

B. 10/2330Z

C. 16.98N

D. 144.13E

E. ONE/GK2A

F. T6.5/6.5/D2.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 03A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG YIELDS AN E#
OF 6.5. MET YIELDS 6.0. PT YIELDS 6.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
10/2044Z 16.33N 144.40E SSMS


RAE

No.

[aspen]

TPPN11 PGTW 110006

A. TYPHOON 15W (BOLAVEN)

B. 10/2330Z

C. 16.98N

D. 144.13E

E. ONE/GK2A

F. T6.5/6.5/D2.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 03A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG YIELDS AN E#
OF 6.5. MET YIELDS 6.0. PT YIELDS 6.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
10/2044Z 16.33N 144.40E SSMS


RAE

No.

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/619419338151034911/1161457988494700654/IMG_1856.gif?ex=65385f0b&is=6525ea0b&hm=8626bd803c513db66ef267618e39483c66e02be7b6502a70c63e545039f03b9c&

How much you wanna bet this is never operationally classified as a Cat 5?

[StormTracker89]

TPPN11 PGTW 110006

A. TYPHOON 15W (BOLAVEN)

B. 10/2330Z

C. 16.98N

D. 144.13E

E. ONE/GK2A

F. T6.5/6.5/D2.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 03A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG YIELDS AN E#
OF 6.5. MET YIELDS 6.0. PT YIELDS 6.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
10/2044Z 16.33N 144.40E SSMS


RAE

No.

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/619419338151034911/1161457988494700654/IMG_1856.gif?ex=65385f0b&is=6525ea0b&hm=8626bd803c513db66ef267618e39483c66e02be7b6502a70c63e545039f03b9c&

How much you wanna bet this is never operationally classified as a Cat 5?

I'll bet you a lot!

[Hurricane2022]

15W BOLAVEN 231011 0000 17.1N 144.0E WPAC 140 920

[xtyphooncyclonex]

JTWC BT basically confirms a 40-kt increase in 6 hours. Haven't seen this since probably Hagibis.