ATL: TAMMY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[aspen]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/9140/JgvGCx.gif

Could get a brief Cat 2 out of this sometime in the next 24 hours.

[aspen]

Tammy might be on the cusp of reaching Cat 2 status already, if those dual rotating hot towers are any indication. Maybe it’ll briefly become a major if it has enough time.

[zzzh]

This is stronger than 75kt

[lilbump3000]

Tammy putting on a show in the Atlantic this evening. 

[Sciencerocks]

[MarioProtVI]

This has to be the second time this year the Atlantic immediately starts going crazy after the EPac does something batshit insane - first it was Jova’s EI into a C5 followed by Lee’s EI into a C5 24 hours later, and now with Otis doing EI to C5, Tammy suddenly starts to (probably) RI. It’s probably a C2 now and given trends I would not at all be surprised if it tries to sneak out a C3 peak before weakening. This El Niño is surely a bizarre one.

[Dean_175]

This has to be the second time this year the Atlantic immediately starts going crazy after the EPac does something batshit insane - first it was Jova’s EI into a C5 followed by Lee’s EI into a C5 24 hours later, and now with Otis doing EI to C5, Tammy suddenly starts to (probably) RI. It’s probably a C2 now and given trends I would not at all be surprised if it tries to sneak out a C3 peak before weakening. This El Niño is surely a bizarre one.

Well in this case, the upper level ridge is in a favorable position for Otis, and possibly enhancing it, and hence interacting somewhat with Tammy downstream with the buckling of the jet. The wavelike pattern in the stream also puts Tammy at the favorable position of the upper jet streak. The positioning of the ridge probably helps swing Tammy on a more northward or perhaps even a temporary NW trajectory rather than swinging east immediately on the upper level wind " jet highway". Otis is adding at least some strength to this ridge. It also helps Tammy remain for now on the lower right quadrant of a jetstreak, which is favorable for it to maintain its intensity or even to possibly see some strengthening. Models last week were showing Tammy being on the east of a longwave trough and being swept up by the jet stream into the front by around now beginning to shoot towards Europe.

The El Nino is definitely bizarre in that despite a strong ocean warming, the atmosphere has responded like a weaker event at least until recently ( the trades have weakened on average fairly consistently starting around late Sept. and we have even seen some WWBs which were near absent earlier in the year). This has kept the Atlantic hurricane season in active state given the very much warmer than average sea surface temperatures there. Normally the EPAC and ATL are negatively correlated in activity, but the ocean temperatures are very warm in the east Pacific partially due to El Nino and this has created the possibility of rapid intensification (there, not Tammy) given the right circumstances.

[MarioProtVI]

ATCF now has C2.

[Hurricane2022]

This is a Category 3 MH.

[aspen]

This is a Category 3 MH.
https://imageshack.com/i/po7wE6alp
https://imageshack.com/i/pordE6Vlp

I agree, it’s being significantly underestimated. It has a chance to get upgraded to a major if it keeps this look or improves over the next 6 hours.

[ThunderForce]

I'm really confused as to how Tammy is strengthening so much despite the vertical wind shear in it's path.

[Sciencerocks]

[Nimbus]

Moving with the shear, maybe last Atlantic storm to track this season?

[kevin]

Raw T# up to 5.7 (107 kt), adjusted T# at 5.3 (97 kt), CI# at 5.1 (92 kt). Based on these analyses as well as visible & IR imagery I'd put Tammy at a 100 kt cat 3 right now. Let's see what NHC does. Extremely impressive, the only reason why it's (rightfully) not getting that much attention right now is because Otis pulled a Patricia.

[Category5Kaiju]

I'm really confused as to how Tammy is strengthening so much despite the vertical wind shear in it's path.

I think it's because the orientation of the trough-associated shear. This was notable with Ian last year, where the storm strengthened significantly despite moderate shear (if you take a look at pictures of Ian, you'll notice an extremely long trough directly adjacent to it. That was helping "ventilate" the system).

[aspen]

Bruh the 12z BT is only 90 kt. Sorry, but this is probably a major.

[kevin]

Beautiful satellite presentation.

[kevin]

Lol look at the location of the 'eye' according to the automated ADT site. No wonder you only get a raw T# of 4.0 that way

[kevin]

Bruh the 12z BT is only 90 kt. Sorry, but this is probably a major.

Agreed, I'm very interested what NHC will do at the next update. Because there's no way this is 85 - 90 kt. 95 kt at the very least and maybe even a 100 kt cat 3.

[kevin]

DPRINT and DMINT both had an intensity estimate of 95 kt based on the satellite image 2 hours ago. I'm ignoring the automated ADT estimate for now due to the wrong placement. Just before ADT went off the rails, its values were 5.0 5.3 5.9 (3.5 hours ago). I estimate CI# to be around 5.3 right now which would result in 97 kt. I think either 95 or 100 kt would be a good estimate for its current intensity.