ATL: TAMMY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Subtrop]

AL, 94, 2023101112, , BEST, 0, 105N, 205W, 20, 1011, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 120, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 040, SPAWNINVEST, al752023 to al942023,

AL, 94, 2023101112, , BEST, 0, 89N, 193W, 30, 1011, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 120, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 040, SPAWNINVEST, al752023 to al942023,

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal942023.dat

[AnnularCane]

Well. That was fast.

[cycloneye]

[underthwx]

Is the latitude of 94L unusually low, at this point in the season?

[aspen]

This might be a Caribbean problem down the line, like the precursor waves of Gamma, Delta, Zeta, Eta, Iota, Julia, and Lisa.

[cycloneye]

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles to the
south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large area
of showers and thunderstorms. This activity has changed little in
organization this afternoon, but environmental conditions appear
conducive for some slow development over the next few days. This
system should move generally westward across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic through early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

[ElectricStorm]

Probably won't do much in the near term but I agree it could be something to watch down the road

[abajan]

8PM Tropical Weather Outlook excerpt:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles to the
south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large area
of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for some slow development over the next few days.
This system should move generally westward across the eastern and
central tropical Atlantic through early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

[Hurrilurker]

Is the shear low enough for anything to make it all the way across right now? Plus everything seems to do a strong right hook just before getting to the islands anyway this year.

[Teban54]

DMAX being DMAX:

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1712233162539975024




 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1712339571302707598

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Oct 12 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Sean, located over the central tropical Atlantic.

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles to the
south of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce some
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
could support some slow development of this system over the next
several days while it moves generally westward across the eastern
and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Papin

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1712439602617647146

[Blown Away]

The 8am position "X" was repositioned farther south which likely carries this energy farther W since it's in no hurry to develop, also per the EURO.

[cycloneye]

AL, 94, 2023101212, , BEST, 0, 94N, 228W, 25, 1010, LO

[Blown Away]

AL, 94, 2023101212, , BEST, 0, 94N, 228W, 25, 1010, LO

https://i.imgur.com/unpecxk.png

Estimated position seems about right.

[wxman57]

I don't expect much from this feature. It should pass Barbados around next Friday as a tropical wave. MDR is not a favorable environment, but neither is the Caribbean. Wind shear is predicted to increase if it reaches the western Caribbean. Lots and lots of strong shear across the Gulf and Florida. Significant development seems unlikely.

[cycloneye]

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
Shower and thunderstorm activity is limited and disorganized this
afternoon in association with a broad area of low pressure located
several hundred miles to the south of the Cabo Verde Islands. While
environmental conditions are currently only marginally favorable for
slow development over the next couple of days, they are forecast to
become more favorable by early next week. A tropical depression
could form by the middle of next week as this system moves generally
westward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

[Wampadawg]

So the orange wave that no one is chatting about?

[AnnularCane]

So the orange wave that no one is chatting about?

A lot of talk in the models thread.