ATL: TAMMY - Models

[tolakram]

Looking at the Euro shear anomalies, you can see why this develops (at least in the last few runs). This starts at 120 hours.

[cycloneye]

Looking at the Euro shear anomalies, you can see why this develops (at least in the last few runs). This starts at 120 hours.

https://i.imgur.com/DZPW4d4.gif

There is a blue pocket near and over the leewards. Dont like.

[cycloneye]

Comparison between GFS, CMC, ICON and European. The first three are from 12z and Euro is the 00z one.

[wxman57]

18Z Consensus (TVCN) turns it NW a little farther east. 12Z EC turns it north before reaching the islands. It has a very small TS. Canadian has a hurricane passing right over the NE Caribbean islands next Friday. Canadian is generally a poor model to use for TCs, though.

Numbers are date/CDT time:

[MarioProtVI]

Why have the models done so badly this year? Ever since Lee models have been trash at predicting things and/or things underperformed, including:

- Not expecting SW shear that truncated Lee’s C5 peak to 12 hours instead and weakened it rather then the forecasted 3/4 days
- Struggling with Nigel and making it a major (instead only a large C2)
- The failure with Philippe and Rina (much weaker then expected, especially the latter).
- Expecting Sean to be a hurricane (never got beyond sheared 45 mph mess)

And now this. I’d rather just take this not developing at all or a weak TD so we don’t make our NS:H ratio worse (it is 19:6 rn which is basically 2019/21 levels).

[underthwx]

Why have the models done so badly this year? Ever since Lee models have been trash at predicting things and/or things underperformed, including:

- Not expecting SW shear that truncated Lee’s C5 peak to 12 hours instead and weakened it rather then the forecasted 3/4 days
- Struggling with Nigel and making it a major (instead only a large C2)
- The failure with Philippe and Rina (much weaker then expected, especially the latter).
- Expecting Sean to be a hurricane (never got beyond sheared 45 mph mess)

And now this. I’d rather just take this not developing at all or a weak TD so we don’t make our NS:H ratio worse (it is 19:6 rn which is basically 2019/21 levels).

You've done your homework, good post...

[WalterWhite]

The models have disgraced themselves this year

[cycloneye]

Why have the models done so badly this year? Ever since Lee models have been trash at predicting things and/or things underperformed, including:

- Not expecting SW shear that truncated Lee’s C5 peak to 12 hours instead and weakened it rather then the forecasted 3/4 days
- Struggling with Nigel and making it a major (instead only a large C2)
- The failure with Philippe and Rina (much weaker then expected, especially the latter).
- Expecting Sean to be a hurricane (never got beyond sheared 45 mph mess)

And now this. I’d rather just take this not developing at all or a weak TD so we don’t make our NS:H ratio worse (it is 19:6 rn which is basically 2019/21 levels).

This is one of the best posts of 2023.

[cycloneye]

Well, GFS is back with development.

[MarioProtVI]

Well, GFS is back with development.

https://i.imgur.com/SFvuZIO.gif

That’s moreso a product of the 18z shenanigans the GFS does at this time. Don’t think it’s representing what will actually happen. Most likely will be broad slop again at 00z run.

[tolakram]

I think the explanation is pretty simple. There IS an el nino background state AND some very favorable conditions in the Atlantic. If a storm can thread the needle it will take off, but as soon as I see models flipping back and forth it means to me that the odds of all the events lining up are getting worse. Add to that the fact models always seem to have issues with pattern changes and ... good luck. There's still a chance 94L takes off, but I think the models might be the last to know.

[dexterlabio]

Well it appears that the models have been the last to know lately, starting with Philippe.

[cycloneye]

I am also skeptical about a fast developmemt.

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1713947535914475804

[cycloneye]

[Xpost] https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1713947535914475804


[/Xpost]

[tolakram]

[Xpost]https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1713947535914475804 [/Xpost]

Your link is to twitter.com, so still use tweet I'm not sure what the heck X is doing but for me everything is x.com now.

[LarryWx]

The 12Z UKMET has no TC from this.

[Ianswfl]

Euro ensembles mega shift west. Couple models look interesting for us in Florida

[Blown Away]

Euro ensembles mega shift west. Couple models look interesting for us in Florida

[Ianswfl]

Euro ensembles mega shift west. Couple models look interesting for us in Florida

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/pr220f9J/eps-lowlocs-watl-fh66-312.gif [/url]

Do you think this is really possible? Euro is the most accurate model. Late oct and a strong mdr storm moving westward. If that stays north of haiti and move west waters are still warm. Another kate path?

[Blown Away]

Euro ensembles mega shift west. Couple models look interesting for us in Florida

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/pr220f9J/eps-lowlocs-watl-fh66-312.gif [/url]

I’d say pretty low confidence, Nicole was extremely rare Nov track and to have it 2 years in a row seems very unlikely.