ATL: TAMMY - Models

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

3 models, 3 different passes near the islands. GFS is rightmost, CMC left most.

[tolakram]

GFS continues to correct west.

[ThunderForce]

Well, this is... quite a difference. Tammy is now much slower in the Euro than the GFS and seems to stall after making it north of the islands, whereas it gets picked up by the trough and moves northeastward in the GFS. Euro is also a lot weaker in comparison to the GFS for the whole run, for some reason.

12z Euro:


12z GFS:

[ElectricStorm]

All 4 hurricane models for the 0z cycle are showing this making a run at Cat 3 north of the islands. Latest NHC disco doesn't really mention future intensity much outside of the next couple days but it'll be interesting to see if they start bumping it up it a bit soon.

[tolakram]

All 4 hurricane models for the 0z cycle are showing this making a run at Cat 3 north of the islands. Latest NHC disco doesn't really mention future intensity much outside of the next couple days but it'll be interesting to see if they start bumping it up it a bit soon.

The hurricane models are showing how bad it can be to be based off the GFS IF the GFS is horribly wrong. No real other option right now, but I hope they revisit the decision not to go a new direction with the GFS. If the GFS scores a rare win with the upper levels, and it did so over the last few days, then the models look awesome.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Quite a few of the GFS members are taking this west now north of the islands. That's a very big change

[DunedinDave]

Almost seems like some models want to Jeanne with this and turn this thing around and west. Icon definitely on board with this solution albeit not as a strong system.

[Weathertracker96]

Any thoughts on what Tammy could do post the islands? Looking the models, some still head NE while others trend west. The 12Z Euro looks interesting and I’m confused as to what it does with Tammy.

[ThunderForce]

It seems the reason why Euro has Tammy weakening into a remnant low is due to both dry air and wind shear.

[SFLcane]

Come again lol??

[LarryWx]

12Z UKMET turns it WNW starting hour 132 and continuing to end of run when it ends E of the Bahamas:

HURRICANE TAMMY ANALYSED POSITION : 15.8N 60.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL202023

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 21.10.2023 0 15.8N 60.5W 993 59
0000UTC 22.10.2023 12 17.2N 61.9W 1003 43
1200UTC 22.10.2023 24 18.0N 62.9W 1005 36
0000UTC 23.10.2023 36 19.5N 63.8W 1004 39
1200UTC 23.10.2023 48 20.5N 64.3W 1005 39
0000UTC 24.10.2023 60 21.4N 64.4W 1005 33
1200UTC 24.10.2023 72 21.4N 65.0W 1005 29
0000UTC 25.10.2023 84 21.2N 65.7W 1005 28
1200UTC 25.10.2023 96 20.7N 66.1W 1004 29
0000UTC 26.10.2023 108 20.2N 66.1W 1003 30
1200UTC 26.10.2023 120 20.5N 66.3W 1002 31
0000UTC 27.10.2023 132 21.4N 65.9W 1001 37
1200UTC 27.10.2023 144 21.6N 67.0W 1001 35
0000UTC 28.10.2023 156 22.4N 68.0W 1002 30
1200UTC 28.10.2023 168 23.2N 69.6W 1004 31

[Blown Away]

Getting Nicole vibes once Tammy clears the NE Caribbean.

[Blown Away]

The earlier W turn models maintain strong TS/Cat1.

[SFLcane]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/HLrtN89m/D1-BB96-D9-8-B8-A-4559-971-D-B45877419554.jpg [/url]
[url]https://i.postimg.cc/ZY8xXSpW/362-A0108-744-F-40-B1-AD96-2259646-D564-D.jpg [/url]

The earlier W turn models maintain strong TS/Cat1.

[Weathertracker96]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/43s8FxFN/25233201-761-D-4-B00-9164-B087-A736957-E.jpg [/url]
Getting Nicole vibes once Tammy clears the NE Caribbean.

So basically high pressure is possibly building in pushing this possibly to the West? I know troughs have been the theme this year so I’m kinda surprised high pressure may come in especially in October.
I do remember Nicole from last year though.

[AutoPenalti]

Excuse me??? lol