ATL: TAMMY - Models

[Ianswfl]

Euro ensembles mega shift west. Couple models look interesting for us in Florida

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/pr220f9J/eps-lowlocs-watl-fh66-312.gif [/url]

I’d say pretty low confidence, Nicole was extremely rare Nov track and to have it 2 years in a row seems very unlikely.

Plus battling drier nov air too! Had Nicole happened in sept or even mid oct she would have been retired and a very nasty storm. Probably a rare cat4 in that area. Would have had more favorable water temps, humidity during peak of season.

[WeatherBoy2000]

The gfs, cmc, hwrf, hmon, hafs-a still have this becoming a hurricane at some point. The icon still has a weak tc. Only the euro and hafs-b have no development. Although still a mess, 94l's been getting more convectively active again. It seems like a wild card whether this becomes a hurricane, but development of some sort is more likely than not imo.

[cycloneye]

The hurricane models are a little bit closer to the islands and some move over.



Intensity is up on some of them.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1714270792664694982

[abajan]

The hurricane models are a little bit closer to the islands and some move over.

https://i.imgur.com/fS7v9eU.png

Intensity is up on some of them.

https://i.imgur.com/6CO647J.png

I would be very surprised if 94L becomes a strong tropical storm, far less a hurricane, in just 3 days' time. But we'll see.

[LarryWx]

The 12Z UKMET text doesn’t show TCG with this fwiw, but it is sometimes too conservative. I wouldn’t be surprised if there is TCG.

[WeatherBoy2000]

The GFS is still insistent that this thing is about to take off, we'll find out very soon if it has any merit. We should see an area of organized deep convection by late evening/tomorrow morning as shown on the simulated IR satellite. I think it's being overly bullish, like how it was with Philippe at one point.

[abajan]

0z Euro is a bit more W than WNW into the Leeward Islands, and a bit stronger too.

[AubreyStorm]

It’s quiet here!

Invest 94L

[tolakram]

Look like Euro is back onboard some development again, and GFS is not only sticking to development but a little stronger. Cat 1 maybe is my best guess, after the islands, BUT it sure looks like this will be an event for the northern Leewards.

[WeatherBoy2000]

Looks like the gfs has finally caved towards a more realistic solution for at least the next two days.

[floridasun]

Got feeling after affect leedislands going north and north east and near or east of Bermuda

[LarryWx]

Once again, the latest UKMET doesn’t have TCG fwiw.

[cycloneye]

[ThunderForce]

There seems to be a bit of a discrepancy between the GFS and Euro when it comes to Tammy's movement just 96 hours out. GFS is slower, but Euro is faster. Here's both models on 12z Sunday, October 22nd.

GFS 12z:


Euro 12z:

[tolakram]

 https://x.com/EricBlake12/status/1714736956037312758

[cycloneye]

[LarryWx]

0Z UKMET
ROPICAL STORM TAMMY ANALYSED POSITION : 13.7N 52.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL202023

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 19.10.2023 0 13.7N 52.8W 1008 36
1200UTC 19.10.2023 12 13.9N 56.0W 1009 32
0000UTC 20.10.2023 24 14.3N 57.4W 1008 30
1200UTC 20.10.2023 36 15.0N 60.3W 1009 32
0000UTC 21.10.2023 48 CEASED TRACKING

[IsabelaWeather]

0Z UKMET
ROPICAL STORM TAMMY ANALYSED POSITION : 13.7N 52.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL202023

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 19.10.2023 0 13.7N 52.8W 1008 36
1200UTC 19.10.2023 12 13.9N 56.0W 1009 32
0000UTC 20.10.2023 24 14.3N 57.4W 1008 30
1200UTC 20.10.2023 36 15.0N 60.3W 1009 32
0000UTC 21.10.2023 48 CEASED TRACKING

Why has the UKMET not developed pretty much anything all season?

[Nimbus]

0Z UKMET
ROPICAL STORM TAMMY ANALYSED POSITION : 13.7N 52.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL202023

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 19.10.2023 0 13.7N 52.8W 1008 36
1200UTC 19.10.2023 12 13.9N 56.0W 1009 32
0000UTC 20.10.2023 24 14.3N 57.4W 1008 30
1200UTC 20.10.2023 36 15.0N 60.3W 1009 32
0000UTC 21.10.2023 48 CEASED TRACKING

Why has the UKMET not developed pretty much anything all season?

06Z GFS already gear up missing Guadalupe as Tammy track passes to the NE?