EPAC: OTIS - Aftermath - Discussion

[shah83]

Be advised that it's election season coming up and AMLO's heir is up for the presidency.

The media is very hostile to AMLO and his party, and they may well be playing this up for political advantage.

[Astromanía]

As a mexican I don't trust on AMLO, many people in Acapulco has critized his government after Otis because there is not enough help and he is acting like everything is under control, of course the death toll is being uderestimated. I know that thousands of people live in poverty there, they couldn't deal with a cat 5 hurricane with just 12 hours to prepare

[ncforecaster89]

...I think I'd have to vehemently disagree on the idea that Acapulco's damage being equivalent to what Laura or even Ida did. From what I've seen, only Ian and Michael had this level of wind damage that I've seen. I mean, you can look at the damage that Wilma did on the Atlantic coast of Mexico (and with all qualifications--different building standards, direction of wind compared to buildings, etc-- accepted), and one can clearly see that it's simply not on that level.

Otis almost certainly came in at least a top end Category four, 130kt min.

You are welcome to disagree, naturally, but I’m basing the comparison on all the damage video and pics as well as what I observed with my own extensive damage survey in the immediate aftermath of Laura in Lake Charles. The similarity being the comparison of the one bank building in downtown Lake Charles to the damage seen with all the high rises in Acapulco.

The wind damage was actually worse in Laura than with Ian. It was the surge damage that was most significant with the latter.

I’m somewhat confused with how you “vehemently disagree”… when I specifically stated that the likely ranges for landfall intensity is between 130-140 kt. I’d go with 140 kt due to the possibility Otis might’ve been stronger prior to the weakening that occurred in the last 2 hours prior to the center crossing the coastline.

[Hurricane2022]

So apparently there is growing controversy that the Mexican government is covering up the true death toll here, in fact there is now a section on Wikipedia questioning the death toll:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Otis#Casualties

Now, I'm not very familiar with Mexican politics to know what reasoning the government would do this for. This does not seem that atypical to me knowing what AMLO is like as a person.

His quote on the current situation: "Even though the death of any person is unfortunate, there weren’t very many".

I mean...

As a mexican I don't trust on AMLO, many people in Acapulco has critized his government after Otis because there is not enough help and he is acting like everything is under control, of course the death toll is being uderestimated. I know that thousands of people live in poverty there, they couldn't deal with a cat 5 hurricane with just 12 hours to prepare

What a disaster. I don't know what happens in Maxican politics, but... After a historic hurricane never seen in that country, this man who is Head of State, saying that the number of deaths was inflated by the political opposition, is disrespectful, absurd. Neglecting economic, psychological and medical aid to a devastated, traumatized and mostly homeless and poor population in Acapulco and nearby regions.
...This case reminds me a bit of what happened during Cyclone Nargis in Myanmar. The number of deaths in reality is probably somewhat higher than the unbelievable ~138 thousand, as the military junta that “ruled” the country appears to have hidden the real number of deaths and also refused to help many of those in need for a considerable time.

[kronotsky]

I also don't think Otis began to weaken until after the eyewall impacted the coast and Acapulco. Even when landfall was occurring there was still a decent amount of lightning occurring in the western eyewall, and that was after Acapulco had already been impacted. The high rise buildings are also another indication that Otis didn't begin weakening until after the Acapulco strike in my opinion. The top half of these buildings are absolutely gutted, but the bottom halves are also fairly gutted as well, indicating the winds were mixing to the surface efficiently the way you would expect in a strengthening hurricane. If Otis had already begun a weakening trend by the time the eyewall struck Acapulco, I think the damage differential between the upper levels and the lower levels on these buildings would be more stark. The way these buildings were gutted and the damage all over the city is really the kind of wind damage we've only ever seen with top end Cat 5 events too.

Although I’d lean towards retaining a Cat 5 intensity (140 kt) for landfall, there’s little doubt that significant weakening occurred in the last 1.5 to 2 hours prior to the center crossing the coast.

Here’s a more detailed explanation of how I came to that conclusion:

https://twitter.com/tbrite89/status/171 ... 01357?s=20

The damage in Acapulco looks no worse than what I observed in Lake Charles following Laura, and is equivalent to what you’d expect with a MSW of 125 kt, plus. As such, it’s not a reliable indicator of a specific MSW. Not to mention, we have no real knowledge of the building standards in that region.

Based solely on the objective meteorological data, I’d estimate the MSW was in the 130-140 kt range…but err on the higher side given the peak winds around 0425z may have been greater than 145 kt at that time.

No offense, but the idea that you can look at pictures of buildings from the air and get a wind speed to within even like 20 knots is absurd. I don't think I even trust NWS tornado damage assessments to that degree of accuracy

[ncforecaster89]

I also don't think Otis began to weaken until after the eyewall impacted the coast and Acapulco. Even when landfall was occurring there was still a decent amount of lightning occurring in the western eyewall, and that was after Acapulco had already been impacted. The high rise buildings are also another indication that Otis didn't begin weakening until after the Acapulco strike in my opinion. The top half of these buildings are absolutely gutted, but the bottom halves are also fairly gutted as well, indicating the winds were mixing to the surface efficiently the way you would expect in a strengthening hurricane. If Otis had already begun a weakening trend by the time the eyewall struck Acapulco, I think the damage differential between the upper levels and the lower levels on these buildings would be more stark. The way these buildings were gutted and the damage all over the city is really the kind of wind damage we've only ever seen with top end Cat 5 events too.

Although I’d lean towards retaining a Cat 5 intensity (140 kt) for landfall, there’s little doubt that significant weakening occurred in the last 1.5 to 2 hours prior to the center crossing the coast.

Here’s a more detailed explanation of how I came to that conclusion:

https://twitter.com/tbrite89/status/171 ... 01357?s=20

The damage in Acapulco looks no worse than what I observed in Lake Charles following Laura, and is equivalent to what you’d expect with a MSW of 125 kt, plus. As such, it’s not a reliable indicator of a specific MSW. Not to mention, we have no real knowledge of the building standards in that region.

Based solely on the objective meteorological data, I’d estimate the MSW was in the 130-140 kt range…but err on the higher side given the peak winds around 0425z may have been greater than 145 kt at that time.

No offense, but the idea that you can look at pictures of buildings from the air and get a wind speed to within even like 20 knots is absurd. I don't think I even trust NWS tornado damage assessments to that degree of accuracy

I think you might be misunderstanding my posts. I keep reiterating the high likelihood that Otis made landfall with a MSW somewhere between 130-140 kt based solely on the meteorological data, not damage.

That’s the point I’ve been trying to convey. No one can make an accurate assessment of the MSW based on damage…as there are way too many variables involved. Even the meteorological data has more subjectively involved than we’d like.

[Astromanía]

Corpses being found and treated by the people of Acapulco
https://twitter.com/gloriadavila90/stat ... ilzgA&s=19
a rescuer found by himself a total of 50 bodies from the water in just one day wich varies a lot with the official number of casualties informed by the government, he said that bodies will continue to appear in the next weeks
https://www.elimparcial.com/mexico/Hura ... -0071.html

[ncforecaster89]

Corpses being found and treated by the people of Acapulco
https://twitter.com/gloriadavila90/stat ... ilzgA&s=19
a rescuer found by himself a total of 50 bodies from the water in just one day wich varies a lot with the official number of casualties informed by the government, he said that bodies will continue to appear in the next weeks
https://www.elimparcial.com/mexico/Hura ... -0071.html

That’s incredibly sad and what one would expect, unfortunately, given the poor areas just outside the tourist community. Be very surprised if the fatalities aren’t well into the hundreds, if not thousands. Hope I’m wrong!

[Ubuntwo]

You are welcome to disagree, naturally, but I’m basing the comparison on all the damage video and pics as well as what I observed with my own extensive damage survey in the immediate aftermath of Laura in Lake Charles. The similarity being the comparison of the one bank building in downtown Lake Charles to the damage seen with all the high rises in Acapulco.

The wind damage was actually worse in Laura than with Ian. It was the surge damage that was most significant with the latter.

I’m somewhat confused with how you “vehemently disagree”… when I specifically stated that the likely ranges for landfall intensity is between 130-140 kt. I’d go with 140 kt due to the possibility Otis might’ve been stronger prior to the weakening that occurred in the last 2 hours prior to the center crossing the coastline.

I agree that Lake Charles may have had more substantial wind damage compared to Ft Myers/Cape Coral, but this doesn’t reflect higher winds. Lake Charles only experienced low end category 2 conditions based on several obs, there are at least two obs of category 3 conditions between Cape Coral and Ft Myers. Lower winds in Lake Charles are due to the city’s placement ~20 miles ‘inland’ though it is marsh. The perception might be worse due to construction standards, you have mostly wood in Lake Charles vs mostly concrete block in SWFL. The bank building is a tricky case, and apparently baffled engineers as observed damage exceeded what would be expected w that level of wind. It’s likely there was a cascading effect of glass from one window breaking glass from another, a positive pressure effect popping windows out, and possibly aspects were not built to code.

What we saw in Otis was on a substantially different level. Not only were all windows blown out on sides, facades and sidings were ripped away. Balconies and entire floors were sheared clean through to the other side. Several high rises in the Diamond Zone resort district saw scattered higher floors laid completely bare. It’s the worst straight-line wind damage we’ve ever seen to a high rise building.

[cycloneye]

Up to 43 dead.

MEXICO CITY, Oct 29 (Reuters) - The death toll from Hurricane Otis, a Category 5 storm that battered the Mexican Pacific resort city of Acapulco, has risen to 43, said Guerrero Governor Evelyn Salgado in a social media post.

As of Saturday, the Mexican government had reported 39 deaths with 10 people missing.

The new tally of fatalities comprised 33 men and 10 women, Salgado said in a post on the platform X.

She added that electricity had been restored to 58% of Acapulco, and that officials had visited 10,000 families in Acapulco and the nearby city of Coyuca de Benitez for a census to evaluate damages.

https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/ ... ce=twitter

[ljmac75]

On the subject of fatalities, I do wonder if the process for determining if a death is related to a hurricane is the same as in the US, and how much time that process takes. I remember there were rumors and reports of a much higher death toll in the Bahamas after Dorian too. I saw a few rumors after Ian too, but the ones I saw were fairly outlandish. Of course, Mexico is a country than either of those and I don't know much about the government there.

[ncforecaster89]

You are welcome to disagree, naturally, but I’m basing the comparison on all the damage video and pics as well as what I observed with my own extensive damage survey in the immediate aftermath of Laura in Lake Charles. The similarity being the comparison of the one bank building in downtown Lake Charles to the damage seen with all the high rises in Acapulco.

The wind damage was actually worse in Laura than with Ian. It was the surge damage that was most significant with the latter.

I’m somewhat confused with how you “vehemently disagree”… when I specifically stated that the likely ranges for landfall intensity is between 130-140 kt. I’d go with 140 kt due to the possibility Otis might’ve been stronger prior to the weakening that occurred in the last 2 hours prior to the center crossing the coastline.

I agree that Lake Charles may have had more substantial wind damage compared to Ft Myers/Cape Coral, but this doesn’t reflect higher winds. Lake Charles only experienced low end category 2 conditions based on several obs, there are at least two obs of category 3 conditions between Cape Coral and Ft Myers. Lower winds in Lake Charles are due to the city’s placement ~20 miles ‘inland’ though it is marsh. The perception might be worse due to construction standards, you have mostly wood in Lake Charles vs mostly concrete block in SWFL. The bank building is a tricky case, and apparently baffled engineers as observed damage exceeded what would be expected w that level of wind. It’s likely there was a cascading effect of glass from one window breaking glass from another, a positive pressure effect popping windows out, and possibly aspects were not built to code.

What we saw in Otis was on a substantially different level. Not only were all windows blown out on sides, facades and sidings were ripped away. Balconies and entire floors were sheared clean through to the other side. Several high rises in the Diamond Zone resort district saw scattered higher floors laid completely bare. It’s the worst straight-line wind damage we’ve ever seen to a high rise building.

Actually, Lake Charles had ridiculously high wind gusts (pushing 150 mph), such as the EOC that recorded 138 mph before the anemometer failed and those weren’t even the peak winds.

I’ve conducted surveys for the NWS after tornadoes and immediately following more than 40 hurricane landfalls. Consequently, I’m very detailed in my own analysis.

The winds each experienced between Laura and Ian were very similar. One significant reason being that the strongest winds with Laura were in the NE eyewall…while it was the SW eyewall for Ian.

Those buildings in Acapulco were not built nearly to the same standards as the aforementioned bank building in Lake Charles.

The more important point and the one that apparently keeps getting missed…which I keep reiterating…is that the MSW was still very likely 135-140 kt at landfall with Otis. Again, I’d settle on a 140 kt Cat 5. It’s debatable whether the city, itself, experienced the peak MSW. I’d need to see the wind direction obs from the airport to ascertain that information.

The second point being there are way too many variables and subjectivity involved in attempting to determine a specific wind speed based on damage. Even then, you need to do a very thorough damage survey on the ground to provide a proper assessment.

Simply put, intensity estimates should always be based on the objective meteorological data.

All that aside, my thoughts and most heartfelt prayers are with the residents who have suffered loss and are having to endure the devastating aftermath. Truly heartbreaking!

[FireRat]

You are welcome to disagree, naturally, but I’m basing the comparison on all the damage video and pics as well as what I observed with my own extensive damage survey in the immediate aftermath of Laura in Lake Charles. The similarity being the comparison of the one bank building in downtown Lake Charles to the damage seen with all the high rises in Acapulco.

The wind damage was actually worse in Laura than with Ian. It was the surge damage that was most significant with the latter.

I’m somewhat confused with how you “vehemently disagree”… when I specifically stated that the likely ranges for landfall intensity is between 130-140 kt. I’d go with 140 kt due to the possibility Otis might’ve been stronger prior to the weakening that occurred in the last 2 hours prior to the center crossing the coastline.

I agree that Lake Charles may have had more substantial wind damage compared to Ft Myers/Cape Coral, but this doesn’t reflect higher winds. Lake Charles only experienced low end category 2 conditions based on several obs, there are at least two obs of category 3 conditions between Cape Coral and Ft Myers. Lower winds in Lake Charles are due to the city’s placement ~20 miles ‘inland’ though it is marsh. The perception might be worse due to construction standards, you have mostly wood in Lake Charles vs mostly concrete block in SWFL. The bank building is a tricky case, and apparently baffled engineers as observed damage exceeded what would be expected w that level of wind. It’s likely there was a cascading effect of glass from one window breaking glass from another, a positive pressure effect popping windows out, and possibly aspects were not built to code.

What we saw in Otis was on a substantially different level. Not only were all windows blown out on sides, facades and sidings were ripped away. Balconies and entire floors were sheared clean through to the other side. Several high rises in the Diamond Zone resort district saw scattered higher floors laid completely bare. It’s the worst straight-line wind damage we’ve ever seen to a high rise building.

Actually, Lake Charles had ridiculously high wind gusts (pushing 150 mph), such as the EOC that recorded 138 mph before the anemometer failed and those weren’t even the peak winds.

I’ve conducted surveys for the NWS after tornadoes and immediately following more than 40 hurricane landfalls. Consequently, I’m very detailed in my own analysis.

The winds each experienced between Laura and Ian were very similar. One significant reason being that the strongest winds with Laura were in the NE eyewall…while it was the SW eyewall for Ian.

Those buildings in Acapulco were not built nearly to the same standards as the aforementioned bank building in Lake Charles.

The more important point and the one that apparently keeps getting missed…which I keep reiterating…is that the MSW was still very likely 135-140 kt at landfall with Otis. Again, I’d settle on a 140 kt Cat 5. It’s debatable whether the city, itself, experienced the peak MSW. I’d need to see the wind direction obs from the airport to ascertain that information.

The second point being there are way too many variables and subjectivity involved in attempting to determine a specific wind speed based on damage. Even then, you need to do a very thorough damage survey on the ground to provide a proper assessment.

Simply put, intensity estimates should always be based on the objective meteorological data.

All that aside, my thoughts and most heartfelt prayers are with the residents who have suffered loss and are having to endure the devastating aftermath. Truly heartbreaking!

Actually, the level of building destruction seen in many multi-story hotels & condos reminds me of what Andrew did in South Miami-Dade. Perhaps Andrew is a good analog to otis, a compact Cat 5 striking such a populated area, one could say Otis was the EPAC'S Andrew. Laura was bad too, but Otis looks a notch higher. Still can't believe how Acapulco of all the places had to get hit like this!

[Teban54]

 https://twitter.com/desapmex/status/1718823615649530038

[al78]

Part of my work (with Tropical Storm Risk) involves maintaining weather risk management products for tropical cyclones, one of which is a real-time historical wind/gust swathe updated at each advisory time. We use a very simple model based on much interpolation and modelling starting with the wind information available in the forecast advisories combined with modelling of gust factors, and the swathe our model put out for hurricane Otis estimated 150-160 mph gusts across Acapulco*. These represent gusts at the standard 10 meter anemometer height over open short grassland. High rise buildings would likely experience gusts well above this due to sticking out like a sore thumb so it does not surprise me that the upper floors of such buildings were gutted.

*This only models wind due to the circulation of the tropical cyclone, it does not account for very localised enhancement of wind/gusts due to downbursts or mesovortices embedded within the eyewall.

[tolakram]

There is a risk here of spreading false information. I like the tweet thread above, it seems legit, but I have no way to verify. At least it provides information! Please make sure and try to vet your sources, and avoid posting inflammatory comments. "I heard looting was bad and the government is doing nothing" doesn't pass this test, I don't care where you are from. Avoid all politics, it's not allowed here. Thanks!

[cycloneye]

Ok folks, I am going to move this thread to the 2023 archives folder on Tuesday morning to allow a few more replies on this Talking Tropics forum, but after the thread is moved, anyone can still reply at the archives forum.

[Iceresistance]

WOW! 205 mph gusts

 https://twitter.com/SMareograficoN/status/1719117506999464447

[ljmac75]

WOW! 205 mph gusts

https://twitter.com/SMareograficoN/status/1719117506999464447

Interesting how much stronger this looks compared to the Isla Roqueta obs. Considering that the stations appear to be only about 1 mile apart, that's a pretty steep pressure gradient too, assuming both stations are accurate. ~957 mb vs ~967 mb at 1 AM.

[cycloneye]

Almost 100 dead is the new toll pof people dead.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/hurricane- ... =245142978