EPAC: OTIS - Aftermath - Discussion

[cycloneye]

May be the most costly surpassing Wilma.

 https://twitter.com/DrJeffMasters/status/1717941118745129475

[cycloneye]

Moved the thread to Talking Tropics forum as the replies continue and is not active anymore to be in the active storms forum.

[Sciencerocks]

This is mexico's Katrina. I think it will blow pass 100 billion.

[aspen]

May be the most costly surpassing Wilma.

https://twitter.com/DrJeffMasters/status/1717941118745129475

Yikes, I’m shocked some of those high-rises are even structurally stable.

Otis will blow (no pun intended) past Wilma’s $7.5B price tag. I saw estimates putting some of the damage at $10-15B, but since it didn’t account for everything (residential, livestock, etc), the final total could potentially be around $20B. Either way, Otis is dethroning Manuel as the costliest EPac hurricane by a huge margin.

[ljmac75]

CoreLogic put out an estimate for wind damage to insurable properties of 10-15 billion dollars. Even adjusting for inflation that alone easily beats out Iniki and Manuel. I don't know how much damage might have occurred from water and to crops and power transmission and things like that, but I think there's a reasonable chance this becomes the costliest tropical cyclone outside the Atlantic.

[cycloneye]

Interesting analysis by Knabb.

 https://twitter.com/DrRickKnabb/status/1717908969228742861

[Astromanía]

As I was expecting, after people saw how Acapulco ended this situation is now trending on social media, the worst thing is that I still don't see the government taking seriously this

[cheezyWXguy]

May be the most costly surpassing Wilma.

https://twitter.com/DrJeffMasters/status/1717941118745129475

Yikes, I’m shocked some of those high-rises are even structurally stable.

Otis will blow (no pun intended) past Wilma’s $7.5B price tag. I saw estimates putting some of the damage at $10-15B, but since it didn’t account for everything (residential, livestock, etc), the final total could potentially be around $20B. Either way, Otis is dethroning Manuel as the costliest EPac hurricane by a huge margin.

I bet a lot of them aren’t structurally stable. Similar to the hospital in Joplin after their ef5, some of these structures may still be standing, but could be so structurally compromised that they ultimately have to be demolished. Depending on how many structures in the city are like that, the damage total could rise as a result.

On another note, landfall intensity may not equate to the strength of winds experienced, given Otis’s slow movement. I’m not sure exactly how close Otis’s eyewall was to the coast before the eye began to fill in, but it’s conceivable to me that the region of maximum sustained winds could have made its way onshore before the center point of the eye did. If that region made it onshore while the storm was producing 160mph winds, but weakened to <156mph winds by the time the center of the eye crossed the coast, the distinction between cat4 and cat5 landfall intensity wouldn’t really matter. Just a speculation here on my part.

[al78]

When it comes to a catastrophic hurricane landfall like this, how do the people cope who have had their homes destroyed? I appreciate insurers will cover at least some of the loss but the people made homeless still need somewhere to live for several weeks or months whilst their home or even city is rebuilt. I've seen the aftermath of Andrew and many homes in S Florida were razed to the ground.

[Astromanía]

https://twitter.com/FarroElRobot/status ... _Qt1A&s=19
The desperation, no food, no water, no gasoline, no support from the government, many people died and they are not showing real numbers, all the stores already empty, no control, a total disaster

[Chris90]

May be the most costly surpassing Wilma.

https://twitter.com/DrJeffMasters/status/1717941118745129475

Yikes, I’m shocked some of those high-rises are even structurally stable.

Otis will blow (no pun intended) past Wilma’s $7.5B price tag. I saw estimates putting some of the damage at $10-15B, but since it didn’t account for everything (residential, livestock, etc), the final total could potentially be around $20B. Either way, Otis is dethroning Manuel as the costliest EPac hurricane by a huge margin.

I bet a lot of them aren’t structurally stable. Similar to the hospital in Joplin after their ef5, some of these structures may still be standing, but could be so structurally compromised that they ultimately have to be demolished. Depending on how many structures in the city are like that, the damage total could rise as a result.

On another note, landfall intensity may not equate to the strength of winds experienced, given Otis’s slow movement. I’m not sure exactly how close Otis’s eyewall was to the coast before the eye began to fill in, but it’s conceivable to me that the region of maximum sustained winds could have made its way onshore before the center point of the eye did. If that region made it onshore while the storm was producing 160mph winds, but weakened to <156mph winds by the time the center of the eye crossed the coast, the distinction between cat4 and cat5 landfall intensity wouldn’t really matter. Just a speculation here on my part.

I was thinking of the hospital in Joplin too. With a tornado it's much shorter duration but rapidly changing wind directions with the circulation of the funnel, enhanced by any subvortices that impact the structure. The hospital in Joplin was shifted off the foundation.

I would imagine something similar could happen with a hurricane of this caliber due to intensity of the winds, plus duration. Those high rises sway/shake a little bit in strong wind, so extended duration of hurricane force winds that culminate in 135-145kt sustained with gusts to 175kts+ might be too much for some of those buildings, depending on what kind of windspeed they were designed to withstand.
I would say it's possible that some of them might have been damaged to the point they need to be demolished because of compromised structural integrity.

I also don't think Otis began to weaken until after the eyewall impacted the coast and Acapulco. Even when landfall was occurring there was still a decent amount of lightning occurring in the western eyewall, and that was after Acapulco had already been impacted. The high rise buildings are also another indication that Otis didn't begin weakening until after the Acapulco strike in my opinion. The top half of these buildings are absolutely gutted, but the bottom halves are also fairly gutted as well, indicating the winds were mixing to the surface efficiently the way you would expect in a strengthening hurricane. If Otis had already begun a weakening trend by the time the eyewall struck Acapulco, I think the damage differential between the upper levels and the lower levels on these buildings would be more stark. The way these buildings were gutted and the damage all over the city is really the kind of wind damage we've only ever seen with top end Cat 5 events too.

This really was a terrible catastrophe, very reminiscent of what Irma and Maria did in 2017. Otis really reminds me of Maria with the rapid intensification up to a direct strike, the way Maria slammed Dominica and then Puerto Rico after that, difference is Maria was better forecast and headed for areas with residents who are much better prepared for hurricanes.

Hopefully the people of Acapulco get the supplies and support they need ASAP.

[Ubuntwo]

On another note, landfall intensity may not equate to the strength of winds experienced, given Otis’s slow movement. I’m not sure exactly how close Otis’s eyewall was to the coast before the eye began to fill in, but it’s conceivable to me that the region of maximum sustained winds could have made its way onshore before the center point of the eye did. If that region made it onshore while the storm was producing 160mph winds, but weakened to <156mph winds by the time the center of the eye crossed the coast, the distinction between cat4 and cat5 landfall intensity wouldn’t really matter. Just a speculation here on my part.

With Acapulco's high rises situated on a bay, the eye would have been making its way onshore around the time the RMW crossed over downtown Acapulco.

(That's assuming the center point of the eye didn't track directly up the bay, and it may have given obs from La Roqueta. Then again, damage in Acapulco suggests winds blowing onshore rather than perpendicular to the coast. It's hard to say without more data. Do we know if the city experienced a calm?)

[shah83]

In certain senses, Otis represents an insurance catastrophe. The idea that models could have failed the way they did, or that a severe hurricane could give as little warning as Otis did, makes damage mitigation, etc, etc, less possible, and introduce more risks that represents an assumption overhang on their financing models.

here's one article for a taste, tho' the more important parts are towards the end.

https://www.artemis.bm/news/hurricane-o ... corelogic/

[ncforecaster89]

I also don't think Otis began to weaken until after the eyewall impacted the coast and Acapulco. Even when landfall was occurring there was still a decent amount of lightning occurring in the western eyewall, and that was after Acapulco had already been impacted. The high rise buildings are also another indication that Otis didn't begin weakening until after the Acapulco strike in my opinion. The top half of these buildings are absolutely gutted, but the bottom halves are also fairly gutted as well, indicating the winds were mixing to the surface efficiently the way you would expect in a strengthening hurricane. If Otis had already begun a weakening trend by the time the eyewall struck Acapulco, I think the damage differential between the upper levels and the lower levels on these buildings would be more stark. The way these buildings were gutted and the damage all over the city is really the kind of wind damage we've only ever seen with top end Cat 5 events too.

Although I’d lean towards retaining a Cat 5 intensity (140 kt) for landfall, there’s little doubt that significant weakening occurred in the last 1.5 to 2 hours prior to the center crossing the coast.

Here’s a more detailed explanation of how I came to that conclusion:

https://twitter.com/tbrite89/status/171 ... 01357?s=20

The damage in Acapulco looks no worse than what I observed in Lake Charles following Laura, and is equivalent to what you’d expect with a MSW of 125 kt, plus. As such, it’s not a reliable indicator of a specific MSW. Not to mention, we have no real knowledge of the building standards in that region.

Based solely on the objective meteorological data, I’d estimate the MSW was in the 130-140 kt range…but err on the higher side given the peak winds around 0425z may have been greater than 145 kt at that time.

[AtlanticWind]

I wonder if this model failure happens if this storm is on the Atlantic side or if the
the earlier and more frequent hurricane hunter flights and NOAA planes sampling
the environment which which surely have occurred if the storm was threatening the U.S.
would have picked up on the rapid intensification .

[shah83]

...I think I'd have to vehemently disagree on the idea that Acapulco's damage being equivalent to what Laura or even Ida did. From what I've seen, only Ian and Michael had this level of wind damage that I've seen. I mean, you can look at the damage that Wilma did on the Atlantic coast of Mexico (and with all qualifications--different building standards, direction of wind compared to buildings, etc-- accepted), and one can clearly see that it's simply not on that level.

Otis almost certainly came in at least a top end Category four, 130kt min.

[Kingarabian]

I wonder if this model failure happens if this storm is on the Atlantic side or if the
the earlier and more frequent hurricane hunter flights and NOAA planes sampling
the environment which which surely have occurred if the storm was threatening the U.S.
would have picked up on the rapid intensification .

Hard for this to happen in the Atlantic as recon is almost automatic.

That being said there are cases where recon findings still don't do much to fix erroneous model forecasts.

[Sciencerocks]

 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1718337739953750221

[cycloneye]

The death toll rises to 39, but there are many people that are still missing.

 https://twitter.com/AP/status/1718343435730477419

[Xyls]

So apparently there is growing controversy that the Mexican government is covering up the true death toll here, in fact there is now a section on Wikipedia questioning the death toll:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Otis#Casualties

Now, I'm not very familiar with Mexican politics to know what reasoning the government would do this for. This does not seem that atypical to me knowing what AMLO is like as a person.

His quote on the current situation: "Even though the death of any person is unfortunate, there weren’t very many".

I mean...