ATL: TAMMY - Advisories

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Tammy Discussion Number 39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023
1100 PM AST Sat Oct 28 2023

Tammy's second time as a tropical cyclone appears near its end.
While some sheared puffs of moderate convection have attempted to
re-form off to the northeast of an increasingly elongated
circulation center, this activity lacks sufficient organization to
maintain Tammy as a tropical cyclone. For now, advisories will be
continued in the event that there could be one final nocturnal burst
of deeper convection closer to the center. In the mean time,
satellite intensity estimates and recent ASCAT data suggest some
continued spin down from this afternoon, and the initial intensity
is set at 35 kt this advisory. If more organized convection does not
return soon, Tammy could become a post-tropical low as soon as
overnight, and likely during the day tomorrow as the storm succumbs
to the increasingly hostile high shear and dry mid-level air
environment.

Tammy is beginning to lose latitude, with the estimated motion now
east-southeast at 105/15 kt. Over the next 2-3 days, Tammy or its
remnant low should be primarily steered clockwise around an
amplifying ridge to the storm's north and west. This should result
in a further turn southeastward and then southward before the
low-level circulation opens up into a trough. The latest NHC
forecast is once again a bit faster than the prior forecast, but
lies close to the simple and corrected consensus aids TVCN and HCCA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 32.6N 55.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 32.0N 52.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 30/0000Z 30.5N 48.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 30/1200Z 29.0N 46.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 31/0000Z 27.5N 45.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 31/1200Z 26.5N 46.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Tammy Advisory Number 40
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023
500 AM AST Sun Oct 29 2023

...TAMMY NOW A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE...
...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.4N 53.3W
ABOUT 670 MI...1080 KM E OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Tammy
was located near latitude 32.4 North, longitude 53.3 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east near 18 mph (30
km/h). A turn to the south is expected tonight, followed by a
motion to the southwest on Monday and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is expected during the next couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
south of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Tammy. Additional information on this system can be found
in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi