BoB: HAMOON - Remnants

[MarioProtVI]

Sadly there is a lot of political bias in the IMD with storms like this heading for Bangladesh. Allegedly IMD keeps it way below its real intensity because if it doesn’t meet their forecasts, the meteorologists are fired as a result. A very clear case is Mocha earlier this year in May which had several fake fixes not upgrading it to a SuCS despite everything to the contrary (JTWC went 150 kt there). Hate how India underfunds this because of political bias.

[doomhaMwx]

Given that it's still more than 24 hours away from landfall, there's still hope that this weakens substantially from shear before landfall just like models are showing (although they failed on the rapid intensification part).

[doomhaMwx]

06B HAMOON 231024 0600 20.4N 90.4E IO 80 978
06B HAMOON 231024 0000 19.8N 89.2E IO 80 978
06B HAMOON 231023 1800 19.2N 88.2E IO 65 988

IMD has upgraded it to a very severe cyclonic storm.

 https://twitter.com/Indiametdept/status/1716688536307728835

[doomhaMwx]

Some relief for Bangladesh is that increasing shear has begun to take its toll on Hamoon. Along with the deteriorating satellite presentation, latest MW pass shows the inner core is eroding pretty quickly. Will probably make landfall as a minimal category 1 or strong TS.




^Drastic change between these two MW passes which are just ~7 hours apart.

[Zonacane]

How bad is the storm surge?

After doing a bit of poking around, I would guess around 15-20 feet. Evacuations need to start soon, or the death toll will be horrific.

Thank god I was wrong. Shear to the rescue.

[doomhaMwx]

Radar shows that it's now coming ashore just north of Cox's Bazar City, much earlier than expected. The inner structure has definitely deteriorated significantly but the system is still producing strong convection, most especially in its northern semi-circle.