BoB: HAMOON - Remnants

[Subtrop]

92B INVEST 231019 1200 12.4N 87.0E IO 15 1009

[AJC3]

This is pretty odd. I don't even see it on the NRL TC Page, however IMD is now calling this a Well Marked Low.

Surprised that there weren't any posts on this system (at the very least a few IMD updates) in 2 days.

 https://twitter.com/PIW44/status/1715661103622189195

[doomhaMwx]

The Deep Depression over Westcentral Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary during
past 6 hours and lay centered at 0230 hours IST of today, the 22nd October over Westcentral Bay of
Bengal, near latitude 16.4°N and longitude 86.4°E, about 430 km south of Paradip (Odisha), 590
km south-southwest of Digha (West Bengal) and 740 km south-southwest of Khepupara
(Bangladesh).
It is likely to intensify into a Cyclonic Storm during next 18 hours. It is very likely to move
nearly northwards till morning of 23rd October, then north-northeastwards and cross Bangladesh
coast between Khepupara and Chittagong around 25th October evening as a Deep Depression

WTIO21 PGTW 221800

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 14.1N 87.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 86.9E, APPROXIMATELY 393 NM
SOUTH OF KOLKATA, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE WESTERN QUADRANT OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A 221506Z MHS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
REVEALS A CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
QUADRANTS WITH WEAKER, SHALLOW BANDING ELSEWHERE. A 221510Z ASCAT-B
IMAGE SHOWS A DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND WEAKER 15 TO 25 KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE WITH LOW (10 TO 15
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C). GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD TRACK TOWARD BANGLADESH WITH GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25
TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

[doomhaMwx]

 https://twitter.com/Yellow_Evan/status/1716265805758029869

[Sciencerocks]

That suggest at least 55 knts.

[doomhaMwx]

06B SIX 231023 0600 17.5N 87.0E IO 35 1003

[wxman57]

IMD still calling it a "deep depression" with an eye forming. They had Tej at 50 kts when it developed a clear eye on satellite. I just don't understand the IMD.

[wxman57]

Finally, IMD upgraded it and named it Hamoon. I guess an eye is required for an upgrade from a depression.

[Sciencerocks]

 https://twitter.com/VortixWx/status/1716495253652283407

[ElectricStorm]

Looks a little stronger than 50kts to me. Probably a Cat 1 or close to it

[Zonacane]

How bad is the storm surge?

[Teban54]

Looks a little stronger than 50kts to me. Probably a Cat 1 or close to it

It looks healthier than Tammy lol

[Sciencerocks]

 https://twitter.com/VortixWx/status/1716588690158297403




Looks to be around 65 knts and could strengthen to 90 knts within 6-12 hours.

https://twitter.com/VortixWx/status/1716598608705794102

[Hurricane2022]

the IMD and JTWC continue with estimates of 40 kt and 50 kt, respectively. Hamoon is not a TS and in reality is probably close to category 2. If this continues, disaster will be done and ready for Bangladesh.


 https://twitter.com/MikeFischerWx/status/1716591912117739955

[REDHurricane]

Yeah that's definitely a Cat 2, possibly approaching Cat 3 now as the CDO has closed off and an eye is starting to clear out, not good at all... I hope the meteorological agencies can communicate this to the people in the storm's path so they can have at least some time to prepare

[Zonacane]

How bad is the storm surge?

After doing a bit of poking around, I would guess around 15-20 feet. Evacuations need to start soon, or the death toll will be horrific.

[wxman57]

All models indicate high shear in its immediate path, which is why GFS, EC, and ICON indicate near dissipation before landfall. Eye opening up in visible imagery, indicating it just might be a tad stronger than IMD's 45 kts.

[Zonacane]

45 Knots eh?

[Kingarabian]

At least 80kts. Pushing 100kts but winds need to catch up.

[Sciencerocks]

45 Knots eh?
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F9KxNBqWEAAeJHR?format=jpg&name=900x900

Looks 85-90 knots to me. This thing could easily go to 100+ knts by landfall with that microwave.