WPAC: INVEST 92W

[Hayabusa]

92W INVEST 231029 0600 12.5N 132.5E WPAC 15 0

[Hayabusa]

Euro wanted to develop this into a TC previously but latest runs not anymore, GFS too at one point. On the other hand GFS is continuously developing a TC near 160E coming November, EPS showing some support too.

[mrbagyo]

Looks like we now have a closed circulation

[Hayabusa]

ABPW10 PGTW 302030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/302030Z-310600ZOCT2023//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.2N
128.2E, APPROXIMATELY 434 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE AND A 301659Z AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH A PLUME OF DENSE
CONVECTION HANGING OVER A SMALLER EMBEDDED VORTEX. A 301314Z ASCAT
METOP-C BULLSEYE FURTHER REVEALED THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) TO BE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FLARING CONVECTION AND PARTIALLY
OBSCURED WITH WINDS IN THE NORTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE AT A STEADY 15-20
KNOTS AND A SMALL PATCH OF STRONGER WINDS FUELED BY CONVERGENCE AND
CONVECTION OUTSIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. WINDS ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE
CIRCULATION ARE WITHIN THE WEAKER RANGE OF 05-10 KNOTS AS WELL.
CURRENTLY THE ENVIRONMENTAL DATA SHOWS 92W TO BE IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, CHARACTERIZED BY WARM (30-31 C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW BUT THIS WILL BE
QUICKLY OFFSET BY UNFAVORABLE (20-25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL
MODELS AGREE 92W WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD TOWARDS THE PHILIPPINES AND INTO
A SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WHERE IT WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA TO PARA 1.B.(1).//
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