ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

[Blown Away]

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Maybe some consolidation starting at the lower levels?

[ElectricStorm]

To me this looks like it still has a long way to go, gonna take some time before it consolidates. Still thinking a TS into CA is the most likely outcome.

[Landy]

Eastern Caribbean Sea (AL97):
Shower and thunderstorm activity in association with a trough of low
pressure over the eastern Caribbean Sea has diminished and not
become any better organized this afternoon. Although environmental
conditions appear marginally conducive for further development
during the next several days while the system moves westward over
the central and southwestern Caribbean Sea, a tropical depression
could form by the latter part of this week. Regardless of
development, this system has the potential to produce heavy rains
over portions of Central America towards the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

[lilbump3000]

No LLC this afternoon.

[tolakram]

There is almost nothing there. The Euro has a slight vorticity signal moving northwest over Hispaniola and a secondary, again slight, signal appearing in a couple of days. I don't think we're looking at the correct 'nothing'.

[Weathertracker96]

There is almost nothing there. The Euro has a slight vorticity signal moving northwest over Hispaniola and a secondary, again slight, signal appearing in a couple of days. I don't think we're looking at the correct 'nothing'.

So is invest97L long gone or is there another system separate of this that may form?
Sorry to ask I’m just slightly confused as to what you were referring to.

[USTropics]

There is almost nothing there. The Euro has a slight vorticity signal moving northwest over Hispaniola and a secondary, again slight, signal appearing in a couple of days. I don't think we're looking at the correct 'nothing'.

So is invest97L long gone or is there another system separate of this that may form?
Sorry to ask I’m just slightly confused as to what you were referring to.

So first thing I will point out, if we're just looking at the mid levels for now, this is where 97L has the most distinct signal. But it doesn't tell the entire story:


If we go down one more level to 850mb (~low levels), we can see things are getting a bit complicated. We have a trough extending off the east coast with an embedded low just east of Florida. This is extending down into the Caribbean now, and we have another low downstream near Jamaica. In addition, we have our tropical cyclone in the EPAC and then 97L off to our east.


So what does this all mean (besides that it's quite a complicated setup )? As the trough extends down into the Caribbean, expect multiple areas of vort lobes to form along the axis. Genesis could occur anywhere (and in multiple places) within that teal circle:


We can see in the GFS ensembles, there are two areas (associated with those two lows I mentioned) that most likely can initialize cyclogenesis, and how it all unfolds is still a bit murky (Halloween reference intended):

[Weathertracker96]

There is almost nothing there. The Euro has a slight vorticity signal moving northwest over Hispaniola and a secondary, again slight, signal appearing in a couple of days. I don't think we're looking at the correct 'nothing'.

So is invest97L long gone or is there another system separate of this that may form?
Sorry to ask I’m just slightly confused as to what you were referring to.

So first thing I will point out, if we're just looking at the mid levels for now, this is where 97L has the most distinct signal. But it doesn't tell the entire story:
https://i.imgur.com/pbo8pKP.png

If we go down one more level to 850mb (~low levels), we can see things are getting a bit complicated. We have a trough extending off the east coast with an embedded low just east of Florida. This is extending down into the Caribbean now, and we have another low downstream near Jamaica. In addition, we have our tropical cyclone in the EPAC and then 97L off to our east.
https://i.imgur.com/ooQT5ep.jpg

So what does this all mean (besides that it's quite a complicated setup )? As the trough extends down into the Caribbean, expect multiple areas of vort lobes to form along the axis. Genesis could occur anywhere (and in multiple places) within that teal circle:
https://i.imgur.com/U5lZK4U.jpg

We can see in the GFS ensembles, there are two areas (associated with those two lows I mentioned) that most likely can initialize cyclogenesis, and how it all unfolds is still a bit murky (Halloween reference intended):
https://i.imgur.com/rGPoCQH.png

Thank you for explaining the setup. It is complicated for sure

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Oct 31 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Eastern Caribbean Sea (AL97):
Shower and thunderstorm activity in association with a trough of low
pressure over the east-central Caribbean Sea remains disorganized.
While environmental conditions appear only marginally conducive for
further development during the next several days, a tropical
depression could form by the latter part of this week as the system
moves generally westward over the central and southwestern Caribbean
Sea. Regardless of development, this system has the potential to
produce heavy rains over portions of Central America towards the end
of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track:

AL, 97, 2023110100, , BEST, 0, 156N, 699W, 25, 1008, DB

[Blown Away]

15.6/69.9… Action brewing!

[cycloneye]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/zB4vr2pr/goes16-ir-97-L-202310312225.gif [/url]
15.6/69.9… Action brewing!

Exactly in the 00z best track position.

[REDHurricane]

Structure looks to be improving slightly, but I think the complex setup plus some wind shear are slowing down development for now. The disturbance just can't seem to get all the way under the ULAC, it's been sitting right on the edge for the past day or two and that might be a primary factor limiting convection in the area.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Nov 1 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central Caribbean Sea (AL97):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central Caribbean
Sea are associated with a trough of low pressure. Environmental
conditions could become a little more conducive for development in a
day or two, and a tropical depression could form when the system
moves over the southwestern Caribbean Sea during the latter part of
this week. Regardless of development, this system has the potential
to produce heavy rains over portions of Central America late this
week and into the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Brown

[REDHurricane]

New dominant area trying to develop near Jamaica? The current disturbance is now almost completely devoid of thunderstorms, and this new area of increased convection is located in a more favorable shear environment -- either way it's going to have a hard time getting itself together into anything significant before landfall, definitely still not out of the question though.








ICON seems to be picking up on this as well:

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track:

AL, 97, 2023110112, , BEST, 0, 156N, 728W, 25, 1008, DB

[CourierPR]

Do my eyes deceive me or is 97L becoming better organized on satellite?

[ChrisH-UK]

From the flow of low level clouds around the area it looks like the circulation will be under the clouds south of Haiti, there is a ton of convection. The waters are a nice warm 30c+ and lower shear all signs of a good potential for tropical cyclonic development.

[wxman57]

I don't see any surface circulation developing, but I do see considerable wind shear. Disturbance will be inland into Nicaragua on Saturday, likely without developing into a TS. That may bring an end to hurricane season, with the possible exception of the naming of an occluded low in the eastern Atlantic over the next couple of weeks.

[psyclone]

A couple of flops would be a good way to end the season. We dodged a boatload of bullets this year.