ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Nov 4 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Western Caribbean Sea (AL97):
Surface observations and overnight satellite-derived wind data
indicate that the area of low pressure that we have been monitoring
during the past few days over the western Caribbean has reformed
about 100 miles east of the Nicaragua/Costa Rica border. Showers
and thunderstorms have increased associated with the low pressure
system, and surface pressures have fallen during the past several
hours. Some gradual development of this system is possible before
it moves inland over Central America tonight or Sunday. Regardless
of development, this system is expected to bring heavy rains to
portions of Central America this weekend. This rainfall could
produce flash flooding, along with mudslides in higher terrain
areas. For additional information about this system, see forecast
products issued by your national meteorological service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Roberts

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Nov 4 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Western Caribbean Sea (AL97):
Satellite data and surface observations indicate that the low
pressure system over the western Caribbean Sea is now located just
off the coast of Costa Rica and Nicaragua. The associated showers
and thunderstorms have become less organized during the past few
hours, and development of this system appears unlikely before it
moves inland over Central America tonight or early Sunday.
Regardless of development, this system is expected to bring heavy
rains to portions of Central America during the next couple of days.
This rainfall could produce flash flooding, along with mudslides in
higher terrain areas. For additional information about this system,
see forecast products issued by your national meteorological
service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Nov 4 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Western Caribbean Sea (AL97):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over Central America and the
adjacent western Caribbean Sea are associated with an area of low
pressure that has moved inland over Central America. Although
development of this disturbance is not expected, the system is
likely to produce locally heavy rainfall over portions of Central
America during the next day or so. This rainfall could produce
flash flooding, along with mudslides in areas of mountainous
terrain. For additional information about this system, see forecast
products issued by your national meteorological service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

Forecaster Brown

[abajan]

AL97 has been causing lots of flooding in some parts of Central America.



Link: https://youtu.be/7J_JaIatF6Y