ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
If this gets it's act together quicker than expected, it could still very well brush CA then get picked up and pulled NE. I think some are a bit early writng this off so soon.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
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- AtlanticWind
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
I never sleep on Carribean systems in S Fla
Think this likely goes into Central America but too early
to say with any certainty.
Think this likely goes into Central America but too early
to say with any certainty.
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- REDHurricane
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
Shear appears to be letting up a bit in the past several hours as the upper level ridge shifts to the south and east, could be why we're seeing some increased convection in the area:
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
Is a little bit more north than the 15.8N position of the 06z best track.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
floater: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso2-02-48-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined
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M a r k
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
8 AM TWO:
Eastern Caribbean Sea (AL97):
A trough of low pressure over the eastern Caribbean Sea is producing
a large area of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for further development during the next several
days while the system moves westward over the central and
southwestern Caribbean Sea, and a tropical depression is likely to
form by the latter part of this week. Regardless of development,
this system has the potential to produce heavy rains over portions
of Central America towards the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
Forecaster Kelly
A trough of low pressure over the eastern Caribbean Sea is producing
a large area of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for further development during the next several
days while the system moves westward over the central and
southwestern Caribbean Sea, and a tropical depression is likely to
form by the latter part of this week. Regardless of development,
this system has the potential to produce heavy rains over portions
of Central America towards the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
Forecaster Kelly
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
12z Best Track:
AL, 97, 2023103112, , BEST, 0, 159N, 677W, 25, 1008, DB
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- REDHurricane
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
All of the 06z global and hurricane models (global models in particular) are initializing the center of this system too far to the south and west; I wouldn't take the upcoming model run or two for gospel until we have better data/more defined LLC so the models can at the very least figure out where the actual thing is that they're supposed to be forecasting.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
Way farther to the north than expected, makes some of those high end solutions more likely.
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- SFLcane
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
REDHurricane wrote:All of the 06z global and hurricane models (global models in particular) are initializing the center of this system too far to the south and west; I wouldn't take the upcoming model run or two for gospel until we have better data/more defined LLC so the models can at the very least figure out where the actual thing is that they're supposed to be forecasting.
Is there an actual center?
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
SFLcane wrote:REDHurricane wrote:All of the 06z global and hurricane models (global models in particular) are initializing the center of this system too far to the south and west; I wouldn't take the upcoming model run or two for gospel until we have better data/more defined LLC so the models can at the very least figure out where the actual thing is that they're supposed to be forecasting.
Is there an actual center?
An ASCAT is need to see if there is one.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
Highly doubt there is anything at the surface for the time being. Low level winds look predominantly south / southeasterly. Buoy in the area corroborates this.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
cycloneye wrote:SFLcane wrote:REDHurricane wrote:All of the 06z global and hurricane models (global models in particular) are initializing the center of this system too far to the south and west; I wouldn't take the upcoming model run or two for gospel until we have better data/more defined LLC so the models can at the very least figure out where the actual thing is that they're supposed to be forecasting.
Is there an actual center?
An ASCAT is need to see if there is one.
Which means ASCAT will miss every single time until this either dissipates or is eventually classified as a TC.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
Landy wrote:Highly doubt there is anything at the surface for the time being. Low level winds look predominantly south / southeasterly. Buoy in the area corroborates this.
That's what I'm also seeing currently. There is some decent mid level rotation (albeit elongated) highlighted in pink below. However, you can see the low-level clouds are from the SE (highlighted in blue). What we need to look for is some sort of consistent westerly flow (look in the green area):
Main reason? We need more convergence at the surface to really get vertical motion established at the lower levels:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
The system has switched to build up the mid level today versus yesterday being more at the lower levels. Though it looks worse on satellite the structure is improving overall.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
blp wrote:The system has switched to build up the mid level today versus yesterday being more at the lower levels. Though it looks worse on satellite the structure is improving overall.
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So far the LLC is moving to DR, unless a new one forms and aligns with the mid level one. Right now is nothing to see here theme.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
Remember this November so chance of ts and hurr are slimer harder get ts and hurr but time will tell
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