ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

[mantis83]

Looks like the Euro may get this right after all. The GFS yet again is showing weak and into CA as the Euro has consistently shown from the beginning. The GFS needs a big upgrade during the off-season to address its issues particularly the convective feedback problems it has in the Caribbean.

agreed! all those earlier gfs runs of a big hurricane hitting south florida was never going to happen, follow the euro for accuracy folks!

[DunedinDave]

As I said the GFS would either look like a million bucks or
Have egg on their face. Well Happy Halloween GFS. Hope the egg tastes good.

[cycloneye]

Solid consensus to Central America.

[AutoPenalti]

GFS has huge issues it needs to resolve.

[Teban54]

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Evening all
I am just so very grateful that it's not going to be a mjor issue for anyone especially South Fla/ the Keys. Can we just please close the season already.

[ThunderForce]

[tolakram]

You can see why they are lowing percentages. Ensembles still show some possible development, but nothing coherent until 60 hours or so.

[ChrisH-UK]

I think the global models may not have a good lock on 97L yet for instance here is the GFS and ECMWF 200-800mb shear models. They have 97L in a pocket of low shear with upper level out flow from 97L this could help 97L to from and intensify especially with the 30c sea temps.

[aspen]

Another W for the Euro this year. This time, instead of sniffing out development ahead of the GFS, it sniffed out a phantom.