WPAC: Ex 17W - Tropical Depression

[Hayabusa]

95W INVEST 231105 1200 4.6N 157.1E WPAC 15 0

[Hayabusa]

GFS was developing this significantly but recent runs has become complicated
06z

[Hayabusa]

00Z

Some very intense members

[ElectricStorm]

Location and track for this one suggests it could end up becoming pretty dangerous, but so far only the GFS really gets it going. Can't really trust the GFS though so leaning towards weaker/no development solutions for now unless other models get on board. No hurricane model runs yet.

[Hayabusa]

00z

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Oh boy... definitely not liking this lol

[ElectricStorm]

0z Euro starting to show development now

[underthwx]

GFS was developing this significantly but recent runs has become complicated
06z
https://i.imgur.com/d2pyz7u.png
https://i.imgur.com/pWTWdQP.png

That's alot of lines bro, where exactly is 95W?

[underthwx]

I took a look at it on Tropical tidbits, it looks like whatever form it takes will track towards the central Phillipines?

[Hurricane2022]

Nobody wants a Haiyan/Rai 2.0!!! Please go away, 95W!!!

[cycloneye]

12z Euro develops.

[Hayabusa]

12Z

[Hayabusa]

00z

[Hayabusa]

12z

[Hayabusa]

Now low

ABPW10 PGTW 100600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/100600Z-110600ZNOV2023//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.5N
147.9E, APPROXIMATELY 505 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED AND BROAD LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DISORGANIZED, DEEP CONVECTION IN THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY. A 100001Z ASCAT-C IMAGE REVEALS AN ELONGATED
CIRCULATION WITH 15-20 KT WINDS IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN QUADRANTS OF
THE CIRCULATION WITH WEAKER 5-15 KT WINDS ELSEWHERE. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 95W IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH EASTERLY DIFFLUENT FLOW, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL
MODELS AGREE THAT 95W WILL BE QUASI-STATIONARY AS IT SLOWLY DEVELOPS
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[ElectricStorm]

Looks like the Euro is now developing this one into a typhoon near the Philippines. GFS is back and forth between developing this one or the next system.

[Hayabusa]

00z, GFS doesn't develop but the one near 170E instead

[Hayabusa]

06z eps, while GFS still not developing this but the one near 170E instead

[Hayabusa]

00Z, GFS still developing the now invest 96W

[Hurricane2022]

Cmon JTWC!! Do something!!