WPAC: INVEST 96W

[Hayabusa]

96W INVEST 231111 0000 4.1N 167.5E WPAC 15 0

[ElectricStorm]

This should be the area the GFS has been developing while the Euro develops 95W instead. I think the odds of one of them developing are relatively high but probably won't be both, so it'll be interesting to see which one it is...

[Hayabusa]

Now low

ABPW10 PGTW 110830
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/110830Z-120600ZNOV2023//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA)
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
6.4N 147.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.1N 146.0E, APPROXIMATELY 445 NM
SOUTH OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN
EXPOSED AND BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
DISORGANIZED, INTERMITTENT CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY.
FORMATIVE SHALLOW BANDING IS OBSERVED WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC IN A
110500Z HIMAWARI-9 VISIBLE 1KM IMAGE. ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 95W IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH EASTERLY DIFFLUENT
OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW TO MEDIUM (5-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM
(30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT 95W WILL BE
QUASI-STATIONARY AS IT SLOWLY DEVELOPS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
REMAINS LOW.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 4.6NN
166.4E, APPROXIMATELY 207 NM EAST OF KOSRAE. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED IMAGERY (EIR) AND A 110600Z HIMAWARI-9 VISIBLE IMAGE DEPICT A
BROAD AREA OF TURNING WITH FORMATIVE SHALLOW BANDS OF CONVECTION
WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES
96W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD UPPER-
LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 C), OFFSET
BY MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-30 KTS). GLOBAL NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT 96W WILL CONTINUE TO
CONSOLIDATE AND FURTHER DEVELOP AS IT TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18
TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[Hayabusa]

12z Euro is now developing this, but not the GFS solution where it absorbs 95W, we could have twin TCs if they develop maturely before the possibility of affecting each other.