WPAC: INVEST 97W

[Hayabusa]

97W.INVEST

97W INVEST 231113 1200 2.1N 171.8E WPAC 15 1006

[Hayabusa]

As always GFS loves making this a strong typhoon, watch out for it to back off later just like the previous ones (or maybe this time it's real? )

[dexterlabio]

I have no respect for GFS anymore.

[Hayabusa]

Now low

ABPW10 PGTW 141430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/141430Z-150600ZNOV2023//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/131951ZNOV2023//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/141352ZNOV2023//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 13NOV23 1800Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (SEVENTEEN) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 4.6N 140.5E, APPROXIMATELY 398 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
KOROR, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 20 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 30 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 132100) FOR THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 3.5N
170.9E, APPROXIMATELY 362 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KWAJALEIN. ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 141231Z GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICT A BROAD AND DISORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH DEEP
CONVECTIVE BURSTS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY WITH A LARGER MASS OF
CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER, A 141026Z ASCAT-B
IMAGE REVEALS A DEFINED ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 10-15 KT WINDS.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 97W IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND WARM (30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFFSET BY WEAK OUTFLOW ALOFT.
GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT 97W WILL TRACK IN A GENERALLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION BUT DISAGREE ON INTENSIFICATION. GFS IS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE MODEL WHILE ECMWF SHOWS CONSIDERABLY LESS DEVELOPMENT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 17 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.