WPAC: INVEST 98W

[Hayabusa]

98W INVEST 231116 0000 6.8N 154.8E WPAC 15 0

[Hayabusa]

Now low

ABPW10 PGTW 160600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/160600Z-170600ZNOV2023//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/160151ZNOV2023//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
4.8N 168.1E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (RMNTS 17W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
6.1N 139.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.8N 136.8E, APPROXIMATELY 160 NM
SOUTHEAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
AN EXPOSED, HIGHLY ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) ACCOMPANIED
BY DISORGANIZED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN A MARGINALLY
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (29-30 C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFFSET BY HIGH (30-40 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND WEAK OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK IN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION WITH LITTLE TO NO
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 17 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
(3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.8N
154.8E, APPROXIMATELY 174 NM EAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AN 110348Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A
BROAD AREA OF TURNING ACCOMPANIED BY AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE
SOUTHWEST. ENVIRONMENT ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW
(10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL
BRIEFLY INTERACT WITH THE REMNANT VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH INVEST
97W, AND THEN MOVE OUT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WHILE STEADILY DEVELOPING
OVER THE NEXT 24-48HRS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 16NOV23 0000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (MAL) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 24.9S 179.8W, APPROXIMATELY 420 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI,
AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 50 KNOTS GUSTING TO
65 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPS31 PGTW 160300) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

How surprising, latest GFS runs backed off significant development. How I wish I could slap the GFS to reality