EPAC: RAMON - Remnant - Discussion

[cycloneye]

EP, 94, 2023111818, , BEST, 0, 102N, 1158W, 25, 1009, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 90, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 032, SPAWNINVEST, ep752023 to ep942023,

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bep942023.dat

[Sciencerocks]

[Sciencerocks]

I'd give this 80% as it is fairly close to being a tropical cyclone.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
400 PM PST Sat Nov 18 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Central East Pacific (EP94):
An area of low pressure located about 950 miles south-southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to
produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity, mainly over
the western portion of the circulation. Significant development of
this system is not likely while it moves slowly westward during the
next few days. Environmental conditions are forecast to become less
conducive for development by the middle of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Reinhart

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
400 AM PST Sun Nov 19 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Central East Pacific (EP94):
An area of low pressure located about 1000 miles south-southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development of
this system is possible during the next couple of days while
it drifts westward. By the middle of the week, environmental
conditions are forecast to become less conducive for
development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1000 AM PST Sun Nov 19 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Central East Pacific (EP94):
Showers and thunderstorms have increased a little in association
with an area of low pressure located about 1000 miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula. Some slow development of this system is possible during
the next couple of days while it drifts westward. By the middle of
the week, environmental conditions are forecast to become less
conducive for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
400 PM PST Sun Nov 19 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Central East Pacific (EP94):
Showers and thunderstorms have not become better organized since
yesterday in association with an area of low pressure located well
to the south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula. Some slow development of this system is possible during
the next couple of days while it drifts westward or northwestward.
By the middle of the week, environmental conditions are forecast to
become less conducive for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Reinhart

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1000 AM PST Mon Nov 20 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Central East Pacific (EP94):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
an elongated area of low pressure located well to the
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula. Development of this system, if any, is likely to be
slow to occur while it drifts generally northward during the next
couple of days. Environmental conditions are forecast to become
increasingly less conducive for development by the middle to latter
part of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Berg

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
400 AM PST Tue Nov 21 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Central East Pacific (EP94):
An elongated area of low pressure located well south-southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to
produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Development of this
system, if any, is likely to be slow to occur while it drifts
generally northward during the next couple of days. Environmental
conditions are forecast to become increasingly less conducive for
development by the latter part of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Kelly

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
400 PM PST Tue Nov 21 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Central East Pacific (EP94):
Satellite wind data indicate that the circulation associated with
an area of low pressure located well south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has become better
defined. The associated shower and thunderstorm activity is
currently disorganized, however environmental conditions appear
marginally conducive for some gradual development during the next
few days as the system drifts generally northward. Environmental
conditions are forecast to become less conducive for development by
this weekend or early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/Yellow_Evan/status/1727374749414949178

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1000 AM PST Wed Nov 22 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Central East Pacific (EP94):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located well southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula have not become better organized since yesterday.
Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for some
gradual development of this system during the next few days while it
drifts generally northward. Environmental conditions are forecast to
become less conducive for development this weekend and early next
week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Reinhart

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
400 PM PST Wed Nov 22 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Central East Pacific (EP94):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located a little more than 1000 miles southwest of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula have changed little in
organization. Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive
for some gradual development of this system during the next couple
of days while it drifts generally northward. Environmental
conditions are forecast to become less conducive for development
over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

Code Red

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
400 AM PST Thu Nov 23 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Central East Pacific (EP94):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located a little more than 1000 miles southwest of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula have persisted and become better
organized this morning. If these development trends continue, a
short-lived tropical depression is likely to form later today while
the system drifts generally northward. Environmental conditions are
forecast to become increasingly unfavorable over the weekend, with
any further development not anticipated.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

[cycloneye]

Looks very good.

[Sciencerocks]

Looks like a tropical cyclone... 35 knots.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression Twenty-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202023
800 AM PDT Thu Nov 23 2023

The area of low pressure (94E) that NHC has been monitoring has now
become a tropical depression over the central East Pacific basin.
Satellite images show that deep convection has been persistent and
consolidating near the low-level center. Dvorak estimates from TAFB
and SAB were T2.5 and T1.5, respectively. Using a blend of these
estimates the initial intensity is set to 30 kt for this advisory.

The depression is drifting west-northwestward around 2 kt. A
continued slow northwestward to north-northwestward motion is
expected during the next couple of days as the system moves in the
light steering flow between a ridge to its northeast and a trough to
its northwest. The model guidance is in fairly good agreement with
the system gradually moving poleward, and the NHC track forecast is
near the various consensus aids.

Some slight strengthening is possible during the next day or so.
However, beyond that time, an increase in vertical wind shear and
dry air should cause weakening. Simulated satellite from the ECMWF
and GFS show that the system will likely struggle to produce
organized deep convection by 72 hours, and therefore the official
forecast depicts the system becoming a remnant low at that time.
Most models show the system dissipating and opening into a trough by
the end of the forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast lies near
the HCCA corrected consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 11.9N 121.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 12.3N 121.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 13.2N 122.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 14.0N 122.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 14.9N 123.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 26/0000Z 15.6N 122.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
72H 26/1200Z 16.2N 122.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 27/1200Z 17.0N 122.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly

[Sciencerocks]

 https://twitter.com/VortixWx/status/1727739497666732449

[MarioProtVI]

That burst seems to have destroyed whatever structure it had. Weak LLC now racing NW out of diminishing convection. No name.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression Twenty-E Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202023
100 PM PST Thu Nov 23 2023

Tropical Depression Twenty-E's visible and infrared depiction has
deteriorated some this afternoon, with slightly less deep
convection. The system is struggling to become better organized due
to northwesterly wind shear, and the low-level center is now exposed
on the northwest side of the convective plume. Subjective intensity
estimates have a fairly large range this cycle, from 30 kt up to
45 kt. A scatterometer pass from this afternoon shows winds on the
lower end, between 28-32 kt. Given this data, the initial intensity
is held towards the low end of these estimates at 30 kt this
advisory.

The depression is drifting west-northwestward around 3 kt. A
continued slow northwestward to north-northwestward motion is
expected during the next couple of days as the system moves in the
light steering flow between a ridge to its northeast and a trough to
its northwest. The model guidance is in fairly good agreement with
the system gradually moving poleward. The NHC forecast was nudged
slightly to the left of the previous track, and lies near the
consensus aids.

Some slight strengthening over the next 24 h remains possible as the
system is currently over warm sea surface temperatures. After this
time, an increase in vertical wind shear and dry air should cause
weakening. The system will likely struggle to produce organized deep
convection by 72 hours, with the system becoming a remnant low at
that time. However, given the harsh environment and small size of
the system, this transition could occur sooner. Most models show
the system dissipating and opening into a trough by the end of the
forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the
previous one, near the HCCA corrected consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 12.0N 121.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 12.5N 122.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 13.4N 122.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 14.4N 123.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 15.1N 123.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 26/0600Z 15.6N 123.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 16.1N 122.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 27/1800Z 17.0N 122.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly