WPAC: INVEST 99W

[Hayabusa]

WP, 99, 2023112200, , BEST, 0, 52N, 1095E, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,

99W INVEST 231122 0000 5.2N 109.5E WPAC 15 1009

[Hayabusa]

now low

ABPW10 PGTW 221100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/221100Z-230600ZNOV2023//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 4.9N
110.8E, APPROXIMATELY 470 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF SINGAPORE. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF TURNING OBSCURED
BY PERSISTENT FLARING CONVECTION. A 220627Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
CAPTURED FORMATIVE BANDS OF CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES 99W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOT) VWS OFFSET BY GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT
AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT 99W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AND, THOUGH OVERALL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE, THE LACK OF A DISTINCT,
CONSOLIDATED LLCC AT THIS TIME WILL SERVE TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 17
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1).//
NNNN

[Hurricane2022]

The GFS is consistently turning this into a major hurricane before making a dangerous landfall in Bangladesh while the Euro only shows a weak and broad TS...
Conditions seem favorable to hurricane formation in that region...